Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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1311. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
evening press isee ya have lucky post 1300
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1310. JLPR
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cirulation decoupled out running its self


yep
the LLC is ahead of the MLC
I think it has always been like that since that would explain the explosion of two areas of convection yesterday, with the MLC rotating more
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The TQOTD graphics kind of look like those of the game show "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" if anyone's seen those (w/ green indicating the correct answer, and orange being the "final answer".
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Quoting Grothar:


I think he has a good thing here with those questions. It is a learning tool and a good diversion and still on topic. I hope he does more! I believe green is the correct answer.


That is correct.
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Quoting Dakster:
Seasidecove:

I've got a wierd/warped sense of humor. I have to tone it down quite a bit for the blog.

I'm glad I made you laugh.

I can't do the detailed MET analysis that many users here do. (Dr. Masters included) - However, most of this is COMMON SENSE, although it appears at times to not be all that common.


LOL...I hear..Oops! Read you there Dak!

My motto for life: "With all of our running and all of our cunning, If we couldn't laugh, we would all go insane." - J. Buffett

So keep'em coming Dak!

"Tonight's forecast DARK! Continued Dark, till mostly scattered light by morning!"
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Quoting presslord:
they need to redefine "Major"...
Ike was the storm last year that had us discussing, yet again, the revisions to the hurricane scale that are so badly needed. SS scale is better than befor (Beaufort) but genuinely inadequate in for indicating damage or potential damage from all aspects of a storm.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
1305. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
So, Allstar, the green button is supposed to indicate the right answer?


I think he has a good thing here with those questions. It is a learning tool and a good diversion and still on topic. I hope he does more! I believe green is the correct answer.
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1304. Dakster
Coño. Homelesswanderer.
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Ike, Gustav, and RITA were not as bad as it can get. There are 2 higher categories than any of these. Should let people on the Gulf coast know not to mess with these storms. Lost my house and almost everything I owned to a CAT 3 called Rita. When I came back for the "Look and Leave" 2 weeks after the storm, all I had was what I had packed for the evac. MAJOR storm for me, but not as bad as it could have been. Current flood maps show a CAT 5 will flood EVERYTHING from my house to Interstate 10. I don't want that.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thank you, Baha! Rats, Allstar, I was close. Very good poll there, my friend.


Thanks...I'll have another one in the morning.
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1301. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JLPR:
98L looking really sad before blackout =P
lets see how it looks after it


cirulation decoupled out running its self
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Thank you, Baha! Rats, Allstar, I was close. Very good poll there, my friend.
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Ike sucked.

ikeor
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Grothar, you have mail again
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Quoting presslord:
Pat is too much of a gentleman to engage in a battle of the wits with an unarmed opponent...,


DO NOT get him involve in this, as oppose to you who simply cannot blog in here without constant controversy and adversity. LEARN to be civil and stop instigating disputes with me.
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1295. Dakster
Quoting presslord:
Dak...if you're referring to Ron White...he is who I want to be when I grow up...


That would be the one... He is quite funny.
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they need to redefine "Major"...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
So, Allstar, the green button is supposed to indicate the right answer?


Correct.
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Quoting AllStar17:
***9/19/2009 Tropics Question of the Day FINAL RESULTS***
A - 3
B - 6 (Majority of WU Bloggers = Final Answer)
C - 3 (Correct Answer)
D - 1



Orange is the majority of what the WU Bloggers thought

Green is the correct answer
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So, Allstar, the green button is supposed to indicate the right answer?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Dak...if you're referring to Ron White...he is who I want to be when I grow up...
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Geez... I just realized Ike wasn't even a major anymore when it hit Galveston.... Don't even want to begin to imagine how horrible things would have been if it had gotten back to the higher wind speeds it had before Cuba....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
***9/19/2009 Tropics Question of the Day FINAL RESULTS***
A - 3
B - 6 (Majority of WU Bloggers = Final Answer)
C - 3 (Correct Answer)
D - 1

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1287. Grothar
Quoting TexNowNM:
Grother, if you write a book, I would buy it!


What a surprising compliment, I thank you for that!
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Actually guys, he is right about Ike not being a major on landfall.... unless 95 kts suddenly became cat 3....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
Quoting presslord:
you'll never go broke over estimating the stupidity of some people...


I should be rich if i stayed on here all Day Press.....LOL
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1284. Dakster
Press... And to quote one of my favorite comedians. "They can't fix stupid". So we are stuck.
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Pat is too much of a gentleman to engage in a battle of the wits with an unarmed opponent...,
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1282. Dakster
Press - yeah. I hear ya'. I've had to deal with a tired, recently woken up Fire Chief (or captain) and I noticed that they don't have a sense of humor in those moments.
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fred is dead


98L will follow
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
1278. Dakster
Seasidecove:

I've got a wierd/warped sense of humor. I have to tone it down quite a bit for the blog.

I'm glad I made you laugh.

I can't do the detailed MET analysis that many users here do. (Dr. Masters included) - However, most of this is COMMON SENSE, although it appears at times to not be all that common.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1277. juslivn
Quoting AllStar17:
Mail, Grothar.


Hey, cc me on that, I had 18. And it had 4 votes.(unless there was possibly a hanging chad in there somewhere)
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or...ask Pat to hook you up with some Anahuac folks...tell THEM Ike wasn't major...
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yea Dak...a tired, angry Texas Fire Chief ain't to be trifled with...
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Dak...you too funny! LOL
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1273. Patrap
"Those who havent danced with a Major..know not what the "Ell" they say..and that's always entertaining here"..

But from their Lips to your ear's.Id listen carefully,those who wish calamity wholesale.

The winds die off and misery becomes your best friend,and that..is a reality check for those who haven't,tasted,nor smelled death,wholesale.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Grothar, you have mail
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1271. Dakster
Quoting presslord:
Dak...Dickie's kinda had a bad year...he'd mop the floor with that boy...


Why do you think I was bringing the floor scraper... It was to help the Chief clean up after the meeting. I've yet to meet a "weak" or "wimpy" fire chief and I've met quite a few - and in several states.
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Quoting Dakster:


Knowing Fire Chiefs and with a name like Dicki Uzzle, I would like to see that meeting. Heck, I'd bring a video camera to that...and a floor scraper.


ROFLMAO
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Grother, if you write a book, I would buy it!
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1268. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Knowing Fire Chiefs and with a name like Dicki Uzzle, I would like to see that meeting. Heck, I'd bring a video camera to that...and a floor scraper.


LOL.
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Dak...Dickie's kinda had a bad year...he'd mop the floor with that boy...
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1266. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
But my storm was more "fun" than yours, Grothar... John was cool as an example of how a recordsetting cat 5 hurricane can be one with an unretired name.... lol


I'll catch up someday Baha (: (did i do that correctly)or is it:)
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I see the tropics have really gotten quite. That thunderstorm named Fred has finally disappeared it seems. 98L will beg for DMAX to help it. If not, it may disappear like Thunderstorm Fred did today.
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Quoting Patrap:
FredEx 00 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





OUCH! both of them make a direct hit in Palm Coast, what did I do to deserve that? lol
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Mail, Grothar.
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1261. Dakster
Quoting presslord:
Why don't you go over to bridge City, TX, and look up a friend of mine named Dicki Uzzle? He's the Fire Chief there...tell HIM Ike was not a major hurricane...


Knowing Fire Chiefs and with a name like Dicki Uzzle, I would like to see that meeting. Heck, I'd bring a video camera to that...and a floor scraper.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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