Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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1461. tkeith
Quoting TampaSpin:


I hate the freaking Eagles...who do they play today that you follow...
ahhh, The Saints!
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no secrets on the internet after 53 you dont tell no one
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Quoting tkeith:
we have all tasted our share Tampa...lol

Today I prefer Philly Eagle wings!

:)


I hate the freaking Eagles...who do they play today that you follow...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NOW hold on Keith......i'm not willing to give up the bird for him yet.....LOL

LOL
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And i am 50....sometimes instincts are right!
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1456. tkeith
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOW hold on Keith......i'm not willing to give up the bird for him yet.....LOL
we have all tasted our share Tampa...lol

Today I prefer Philly Eagle wings!

:)
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Thanks tkeith, my wife made it. And based on the song that Ike just sent me I would say we were both raised in the 60's
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Quoting tkeith:
a sound forecast IMO Ike.

there will be no crow for you.

:)


NOW hold on Keith......i'm not willing to give up the bird for him yet.....LOL
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1453. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
ike aint no old man or im older nothing for awhile


I'm 51 1/2. Baby boomer.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
ike aint no old man or im older nothing for awhile
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1451. tkeith
Quoting WoolmarketWeatherMan:
Ike, from one old man to another your input is very much appreciated.
Nice Avatar Woolmarket.
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1450. IKE
Quoting WoolmarketWeatherMan:
Ike, from one old man to another your input is very much appreciated.


Yo bud.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1449. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


I hear ya. I feel bad putting what I said on here...being negative and all, but that's how I feel based on what I see.

Take it for what it's worth from an amateur.
a sound forecast IMO Ike.

there will be no crow for you.

:)
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1448. IKE
Freddie is under 20-30+ knots of shear....you can see the clouds blowing off to the east on visible loop.




98L seems to be having a hard time holding convection.

And now the NHC says "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


I hear ya. I feel bad putting what I said on here...being negative and all, but that's how I feel based on what I see.

Take it for what it's worth from an amateur.
Ike, from one old man to another your input is very much appreciated.
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1446. IKE
Quoting tropicofcancer:


There you go downcasting again Ike!
Dont you remember?,just yesterday, Fred was going to become a major hurricane and destroy half of the east coast AND the gom!


I hear ya. I feel bad putting what I said on here...being negative and all, but that's how I feel based on what I see.

Take it for what it's worth from an amateur.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
Nothing is going to develop in the Atlantic anytime soon. I said until October. Conditions are just not conducive. MJO is suppressing convection until the 2nd week of October. El Nino is causing increasing shear.


There you go downcasting again Ike!
Dont you remember?,just yesterday, Fred was going to become a major hurricane and destroy half of the east coast AND the gom!
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Quoting IKE:
Nothing is going to develop in the Atlantic anytime soon. I said until October. Conditions are just not conducive. MJO is suppressing convection until the 2nd week of October. El Nino is causing increasing shear.


Yep your right IKE shear has protected us well this year. We need that big fan every year. Good morning everyone!
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1443. IKE
Nothing is going to develop in the Atlantic anytime soon. I said until October. Conditions are just not conducive. MJO is suppressing convection until the 2nd week of October. El Nino is causing increasing shear.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1442. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Amazing how very little convection there is overall in the basin, especially when compared with last weekend...

Link
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
Well, as ridiculous as it sounds, there is still at least one tropical vortex associated with Fred's remnants.

The one that is currently visible on RGB, with a few clouds wrapping around dead center is at 28n and 72w.
Morning everybody....

Doesn't look like there's even enough left of Fred this a.m. to bring us the rain showers I was expecting....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
Hugo came, Hugo saw and Hugo kick butt here in Charleston and we went through it. Ever since then, I watch the tropics like a hawk.
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1436. WxLogic
Good morning...
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Any1 think were in for a late season for hurricanes its suppose to be 80+ for the next 7days here in Seattle I have lived here 15years and this is amazing weird last year are summer lasted until October then had a dreaded winter I think were in for this again...
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Unless Invest 98 picks up some steam pretty quick, there's no way this trough is going to pick it up. It's going to slide right under, just like Fred did.

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1433. IKE
Looks like the remnants of Fred have weakened to 1014 mb's....


HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN SEP 20 2009

ATLC TROUGH 23N70W TO LOW PRES 28N70W 1014 MB WITHIN 120 NM E
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW SE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 25N76W TO 31N74W. N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM
E OF TROUGH SE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 27N79W TO 31N78W. WINDS LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Storm W said to watch the southern Bahamas, and indeed he was correct. However, looking at the precip. loop, it's hard to see how this thing could ever regain any solid momentum.

This other thing down in the caribbean is interesting, originating in northern Venezuela, it has upper level convergence, but no lower. It would surprise me if that did not change.

Overall vorticity, especially approaching the Bahamas is amazingly still fairly robust.









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Quoting Bordonaro:
Good night everyone, be blessed sleep well cause we'll be back here later today!! This is like an addiction!!


tell me about it, thinking about doing the associate's degree in meteorology... qualifies me for NOAA work
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Good night everyone, be blessed sleep well cause we'll be back here later today!! This is like an addiction!!
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1429. JLPR
night everyone =D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting JLPR:
umm
98L did develop a little convection


=P but not enough to surprise me

also nice wave inland


The deep convection the the Carribean associated with the ULL in the Western Carribean is impressive, that's about it, haha goodnight.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7429
1423. JLPR
umm
98L did develop a little convection


=P but not enough to surprise me

also nice wave inland
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
DMAX is almost there for both disturbances, so we'll see what happens in the morning, I'm off to bed, ttyl
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7429
98L UPDATED
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7429
I dunno if this is right, but this is what they updated to...

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7429
IR Satellite Image of Fred Link
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Quoting iceman55:
reedzone did u know can Loop satellite


I'm guessing you can
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7429

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.