Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning!
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i totally agree with 456 that 98L ll intact and expanding. what i cannot see is a distinct LLC. this area is an elongated area of low pressure with a number of mid level vortices all over the place. looking at a number of sat pics the only area with a semblance of a LLC is between the two areas of convection near 12.9N 40W
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98L is starting to look a bit more 'cyclonic' with faint signs of banding. Still pretty elongated, though.




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Quoting Weather456:
I tend to disagree.....

98L convection is waning but it remains a well organize system per sat images and microwave imagery. In fact the disturbance is currently expanding and outflow is clearly evident.



Well, we see different states of organization. At the presnt rate at which the convection is disappearing it could become a naked swirl soon. The center has less convective cover with each new sat frame.

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I tend to disagree.....

98L convection is waning but it remains a well organize system per sat images and microwave imagery. In fact the disturbance is currently expanding and outflow is clearly evident.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Fred trying to develop some convection around the center, be interesting to see if this persists...

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
FredEx &

FREDacity:

1 : the quality or state of being FREDacious- a: intrepid boldness b: bold or arrogant disregard of normal restraints
2 a: not easily pulled apart : cohesive b: tending to adhere or cling especially to another substance
3 a: persistent in maintaining, adhering to, or seeking something valued or desired

CRS


oops..the Fredacity qute did not appear in last comment...again, LMAO. And thanks for the laugh!
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Sorry...thought I quoted
35. Watcher123
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.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting HellaGoose:
I live in South Florida...should i be worried about Ex-Fred?

Also, will conditions be more favorable for ex-fred to intensify if it manages to make it into the GOM?


Not worried -just watchful. Nothing is expected to develop with this mornings information, but its always a good idea to keep an eye out until it goes away.
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wooohooo

#49
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Please give us something to go on now???
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LMAO!! Thanks for a really good chuckle to have start the day!
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Quoting mossyhead:
just you. the high pressure over the southern plains will be causing the ne winds over the gulf.


Ah ok. I assumed since it was a GOM synopsis it meant that the high would be in the gulf not north of it. My bad. :)
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I live in South Florida...should i be worried about Ex-Fred?

Also, will conditions be more favorable for ex-fred to intensify if it manages to make it into the GOM?
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Good morning

98L looks to be in a weakening phase as far as convection is concerned. I have also noticed that the lower level convergence is completely lacking where the low center is and the overall appearance is very ragged.

The net effect of all of this is that 98L remains a weak and poorly organized system that is not currently showing any signs of becoming a TD within the next few hours. If the convection continues to weaken the surface low could become exposed soon from the East.


In any event this is a slow mover so there is lots of time to watch it.
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I have had the "gut feeling" all along that Fred was not "dead". I have checked on his remnants every day just in case. My feelings are that he will not be much more than a whole lot of rain...or minimal storm. But all us on East Coast of Florida are probably going to get really WET! Flooding is such a problem in Port St. Lucie/Fort Pierce area and I am so not looking forward to any kind of flooding event...my house is fine...the roads are not!
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
GMZ089-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH
ALONG 92W WILL MOVE N TODAY AND BE WELL N OF THE AREA SUN. THIS
ALLOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM THE E MON AND TUE
WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE SRN PLAINS WED WITH WINDS BECOMING NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF.

Does this make any sense to anyone, or is it just me? Wondering how a ridge in the GOM make NE winds over the entire gulf?
just you. the high pressure over the southern plains will be causing the ne winds over the gulf.
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FredEx &

FREDacity:

1 : the quality or state of being FREDacious- a: intrepid boldness b: bold or arrogant disregard of normal restraints
2 a: not easily pulled apart : cohesive b: tending to adhere or cling especially to another substance
3 a: persistent in maintaining, adhering to, or seeking something valued or desired

CRS
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If the CIMMS map is right, 07L will be moving under 5-10 knots for a few hours which makes conditions marginal to favorable. This is where I have to respectfully dissagree with Dr. Masters. Conditions should be more favorable for a few hours, then back to marginal.
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Quoting lhwhelk:
Dr. Masters, what is a "tropical repression"? Is that a typo or is it something I've never heard of? Thanks for the update!


Why be a douchebag?
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GMZ089-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH
ALONG 92W WILL MOVE N TODAY AND BE WELL N OF THE AREA SUN. THIS
ALLOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM THE E MON AND TUE
WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE SRN PLAINS WED WITH WINDS BECOMING NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF.

Does this make any sense to anyone, or is it just me? Wondering how a ridge in the GOM make NE winds over the entire gulf?
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Well, I gotta go. Will check in later as time / opportunity permits. Have a good day, everyone!
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Morning gang *raises coffee* Fred-ex - good one Doc. This has been a very intering season so far....amazing how much attention the "ex" systems keep our attention
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Thanks for the update, Doc. Wasn't expecting one so early. However, given potential events today, we prolly needed it... lol
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Wasn't living here during Ivan, but I've heard all of the horror stories
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98L is moving so slow that the weakness in the ridge will have time to rebuild , keeping the disturbance on a west track
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Quoting Weather456:


yea but I mean when Katrina went down to 70 mph just b4 it exited into the GOM.


gotcha

Thanks Doc!
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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Warrington...right off NAS. Ivan destroyed our neighborhood.
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Quoting 850Realtor:
All of my friends and family don't even realize ex Fred is out there still trying to reorganize, they thought he was long gone. The weather channel mentions it, but doesn't really go into detail about it...like here on the forum :)
Could end up being a mad rush for those in S Florida as well as those of us here in the Fl Panhandle that haven't really been paying attention.


Hey 850... where are you located? Milton here
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This year has not been a model year for tropical systems as well as the Models. Bill has been the only one, that the models had on target. now as with Erica ,they are having a hell of a time with the remnants of Fred and the initialisation of 98L
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ha he put in Fred ex xD.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't think 98L will move as far north as the models predict, jmo.


Don't see why myself as the jet stream seems to be in a northerly position next week. The reason for the troughs pulling storms north was an unusually southerly jet stream.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


seemed to me to be intensifying while over the glades. It was tapping into the hot water off sw Florida's coast.. like Fay did... imo.


yea but I mean when Katrina went down to 70 mph just b4 it exited into the GOM.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Thanks, Doc!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
All of my friends and family don't even realize ex Fred is out there still trying to reorganize, they thought he was long gone. The weather channel mentions it, but doesn't really go into detail about it...like here on the forum :)
Could end up being a mad rush for those in S Florida as well as those of us here in the Fl Panhandle that haven't really been paying attention.
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Quoting BioWeather:
Does anyone know what time the HH's are flying into the storm?


I think someone said 11 am.
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Thanks Jeff Masters! Glad you mentioned the possibilities of a path further north for "Fred". The models are not handling the pattern very well with important disparities well north and west that would impact steering and sheer. The system is currently relatively small versus a global scale and is coming in under the radar so to speak. Noticed a couple of models did display a sharper wave on recent runs. May be best to take this one day at a time for a couple of days. Data provided by recon should aid the model depiction of what could become a slow moving pain in the "_"!
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Thanks DRM. :)
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Does anyone know what time the HH's are flying into the storm?
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Thanks - this is getting rather old.
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San Antonio Spurs' forward Tim Duncan went through Hurricane Hugo when he was a teenager (14 years old?) I think on the island nation of St. Croix. I don't know if this had already been mentioned.
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Quoting jipmg:


last models I saw showed it moving West, some WSW then W, some W then WNW

Thanks!! Guess we'll just have to wait and see what the hurricane hunters find... TY again!!
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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
Okay, now - this is NOT the time for things to decide to head for Florida - our homeowner's insurance just lapsed, and we're back in search of another carrier that will dump us again after one year.
i've been there. That is totally frustrating. Hopefully, IF ex-Fred decides to turn on you it will be nothing but a rain event.
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Dr. Masters, what is a "tropical repression"? Is that a typo or is it something I've never heard of? Thanks for the update!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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