Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Gotta love this..



06z GFS ensemble models - LOL!!
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Quoting reedzone:


30 minutes from now, they are set to fly in at 11 a.m. NO CANCELLATION!
fantastic! thanks by the way.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting AllStar17:
When eventual Katrina was TD 12:
Katrina looked more impressive not structurally, but convection wise...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting reedzone:
This is what happens when 07L enters favorable conditions..



For the first time in a long time, convection is firing north of the center which clearly shows me that shear has lessened. We'll see what happens when the Hurricane Hunters discover it this afternoon.


Strange that there's so much attention on a system that the NHC still have in yellow. I know it's close to Florida, but still odd. But then our Freddie is an oddball.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I totally agree 110%! By the way, when do the HH go into 07L?


30 minutes from now, they are set to fly in at 11 a.m. NO CANCELLATION!
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Good morning everyone,

Thanks for an early Sat Update Dr Masters.

This is a surprise, Fred looks like it is growing bigger every hour today.

Does it have a LLC with it?

Yes as a TD Katrina went away then returned right off the coast of SE Fla.

I guess we will watch x-fred..but they do not even have it as an invest yet so I do not understand why the HHunters going in today???


happy weekend everyone!
Gams
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so true reed...wonder if they find anything...as far Drno goes...might want to read a tad bit more of peoples stuff before poppin off like that, there are a bunch of good people on here that really do help...you calling out everyone with a toys-r-us mind set is what is childish...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If the hurricane hunters find a tight and closed surface circulation and convection increases a bit, i think we will have a TD. Right now if 07L stays weak South Florida is most likely going to get the effects of 07L, if it intensifies then entral to north Florida will probably get its effects. 07L might not even develop at all, but it is still fun to watch, imo.

TY Is the HH time 2pm today??
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Quoting reedzone:
This is what happens when 07L enters favorable conditions..



For the first time in a long time, convection is firing north of the center which clearly shows me that shear has lessened. We'll see what happens when the Hurricane Hunters discover it this afternoon.
I totally agree 110%! By the way, when do the HH go into 07L?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TampaSpin:


Fred could still be a Tropical Storm before moving into Florida......not wishcasting its just what i believe based on conditions...a little further West and Shear drops and SST even get warmer....Some will still say dead im sure if this happens.....LOL...time will tell.


After how amazingly accurate you were with Claudette Tampa, I'm taking your word for it. We all thought you were crazy when you said you saw a LLC forming on the radar, apparently the NHC saw it too!
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When eventual Katrina was TD 12:
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This is what happens when 07L enters favorable conditions..



For the first time in a long time, convection is firing north of the center which clearly shows me that shear has lessened. We'll see what happens when the Hurricane Hunters discover it this afternoon.
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96. DrNo
Same goes for you, TampaSPin...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Fred could still be a Tropical Storm before moving into Florida......not wishcasting its just what i believe based on conditions...a little further West and Shear drops and SST even get warmer....Some will still say dead im sure if this happens.....LOL...time will tell.
I agree, anything is possible, this could rapidly intensify into a hurricane in 36 hours...most i remind you of Katrina in 2005, huh?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TampaSpin:
You all better start watching the Caribbean if you haven't......it has been a AOI with me for the past few days!





AOI to watch




Can't say I like your tracks there. But I agree with need to watch Caribbean. Seems the NAM and GFS agree too.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
You all better start watching the Caribbean if you haven't......it has been a AOI with me for the past few days!





AOI to watch


IF current steering layers stay the same and 98L stays weak, then yes that track into Florida/Florida straights looks about right...if 98L intensifies, it will most likely go out to sea (remember that is if steering currents hold the same).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
weather456, i agree..i just always find it funny when they say it's dead...guess they forgot about last years joker..lol
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Quoting Nolehead:
morning T-spin...looks like at least a few of us still had fred having a pulse...just find it funny...never say never till it's really gone for sure....looks to be getting more convection on the last sat...wonder where all the fred is dead peeps are now...lol


Fred could still be a Tropical Storm before moving into Florida......not wishcasting its just what i believe based on conditions...a little further West and Shear drops and SST even get warmer....Some will still say dead im sure if this happens.....LOL...time will tell.
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What does WU think of the 98L track by the models? Spot on? What other tracks could it take?
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Quoting Nolehead:
morning T-spin...looks like at least a few of us still had fred having a pulse...just find it funny...never say never till it's really gone for sure....looks to be getting more convection on the last sat...wonder where all the fred is dead peeps are now...lol


It kinda goes both ways too. remember Fred has not develop as yet so "they" could be right in the end.

Its a watch and see situation still. No guarantee it will develop but its not dead at the same time.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting lhwhelk:
Dr. Masters, what is a "tropical repression"? Is that a typo or is it something I've never heard of? Thanks for the update!


Its a symptom of "Downcaster disease".
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78. PensacolaDoug 2:12 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Quoting 850Realtor:
Warrington...right off NAS. Ivan destroyed our neighborhood.


Hi Neighbor.


over here in Elberta...yep Ivan did a wonder over here also....Bayou Grande was the worst!!!

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Quoting masonsnana:

GM! Your thoughts on XFred??
If the hurricane hunters find a tight and closed surface circulation and convection increases a bit, i think we will have a TD. Right now if 07L stays weak South Florida is most likely going to get the effects of 07L, if it intensifies then entral to north Florida will probably get its effects. 07L might not even develop at all, but it is still fun to watch, imo.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Time for errands. Will be back later.
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You all better start watching the Caribbean if you haven't......it has been a AOI with me for the past few days!





AOI to watch


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Good Morning......Gonna be interesting watching what happens with 98L over the next few days; it is a very large wave and I would think that the whole "morass" would continue to move towards the Antillies, instead of missing it to the North, if the dry air prevents TD status so I would not make any bets yet on the ultimate track.
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morning T-spin...looks like at least a few of us still had fred having a pulse...just find it funny...never say never till it's really gone for sure....looks to be getting more convection on the last sat...wonder where all the fred is dead peeps are now...lol
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80. 789
Quoting TampaSpin:
Dr. Masters.....love the updates.....but, Dry air on FRed.......HUM.

fed ex o7L has been reading stormW blog !what do you think ? good mourning
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Quoting kmanislander:


The conclusion that it was getting better organized was based upon obs made hours ago by the NHC and DR. M. Organization is not, as you know, a steady state.

Anyway I don't want to make a meal of this. We will see soon enough how much of a player this will or will not become.


fair enough then
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting 850Realtor:
Warrington...right off NAS. Ivan destroyed our neighborhood.


Hi Neighbor.
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Quoting Weather456:


That's the effects of dmin and it cannot justify the storm would end up as a naked swirl. If so, then the NHC, myself and Dr Masters made a wrong assessment stating its getter better organize.


The conclusion that it was getting better organized was based upon obs made hours ago by the NHC and DR. M. Organization is not, as you know, a steady state.

Anyway I don't want to make a meal of this. We will see soon enough how much of a player this will or will not become.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good Morning!

GM! Your thoughts on XFred??
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Below is 07L's satellite imagery at 13:45UTC.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
"FREDacity". Quite so.

Although the three potcakes are pretty relaxed this morning, the birds are behaving a little nervous. I do believe I'll shutter up the buildings today.

Heh......personal weather station this morning is reporting a barometric pressure of 600 mb. Might be time for some new batteries.......
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Quoting Funkadelic:
Morning guys and gals, I have been gone for a couple weeks but Im back!

My thoughts on EX-fred are if it slows down off the east coast of florida, we should be concerned. In my opinion I believe that South florida should be spared, and if fred were to re-generate then it would be more of a threat to central/ north Florida.

And I dont see a TD at 11am, due to the fact that convevtion is already waning.
Hey Funkadelic! I got used to your "Joker" handle. If 07L were to stay weak (Pressure more than 1000 MB) then South Florida will most likely get the effects of 07L. If 07L strnghtens and acquires are pressure of less than 999MB, then Central and Northern Florida will most likely get the effects.

Below is the latest 1000-1009 MB steering currents:
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY BUILDING AOUND THE coc



Link
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Dr. Masters.....love the updates.....but, Dry air on FRed.......HUM.



its in the 500-700 mb average which is the level used for cyclogenesis. Water vapor imagery mostly shows the vapor in the upper environment.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
<
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What are Fredex current coordinates?
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Is Fred back from the dead? Again? Does he have a closed center?
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64. amd
sometimes when nascent systems have two large areas of thunderstorms in close proximity to each other, these areas of thunderstorms eventually weaken, and a new set of thunderstorms form in the middle of the 2 old areas of thunderstorms.

In this case, 98L has always had 2 clusters of convection to the west and east of the area with the largest 850mb vorticity, however convection over the area with the largest 850mb has been weak. As these convection clusters weakens, if a new convection cluster forms over the area with the highest 850 mb vorticity, then 98L is truly organizing.

If not, then 98L will end up being a slow moving tropical wave that will have to deal with heavy westerly shear, and development probably will not occur. JMHO.

Also, some thoughts on FredEx. I'm not sure if I can find a circulation anymore with FredEx. A buoy less than 150 miles from the wave associated with FredEx has pressures of 1017mb, meaning that FredEx remains embedded in a region of higher pressures, which could lessen probability of development.
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Dr. Masters.....love the updates.....but, Dry air on FRed.......HUM.

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Quoting kmanislander:


Well, we see different states of organization. At the presnt rate at which the convection is disappearing it could become a naked swirl soon. The center has less convective cover with each new sat frame.



That's the effects of dmin and it cannot justify the storm would end up as a naked swirl. If so, then the NHC, myself and Dr Masters made a wrong assessment stating its getter better organize.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Good Morning!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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