Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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ohh well may be they want too see what feed XE dos today be for they send them
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158. JLPR
Quoting muddertracker:
JLPR, has the LLC moved? I thought it was to the north of the main convection. The scan you show puts it more on the eastern side? Am I just seeing things? Thoughts?


its possible that the system has moved since the quickscat, thats all I can say
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Sorry, yes it has been canceled:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
142. MiamiHurricanes09 2:41 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

Check the date/time stamp on that info?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NO it has not been canceled.


the one you hav eis old miami... check the timestamp.

CANCELLED.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
nope it is still on:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW





thats old you need too look at the date when posting them
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guys, just ignore tacoman, DrNo, Hurricaneseason2006. They just want you to get rallied up. Shesh, El Nino years are just awful on this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Regarding the dry air near Fred.

The air is dry in the 500-700 mb atmosphere around Fred which is used for to assess the likelihood of cyclogenesis. The water vapor imagery cannot 100% tell if the entire column of air is moist since it only it is mainly use to assess the upper environment.


I was wondering about that, never did understand why the water vapor could look decent and there still be dry air around - very interesting!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
nope it is still on:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW



That's the outlooks for today written yesterday. The downcasters are right, they canceled recon today, such a big mistake.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting CybrTeddy:
@Miami, that text was issued yesterday. They issued one today at 10:15 stating all recon was canceled.
my bad
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
nope it is still on:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW



that is from yesterday
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NO it has not been canceled.



yes it has
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@Miami, that text was issued yesterday. They issued one today at 10:15 stating all recon was canceled.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
DrNo is correct.

Weatherunderground should introduce a new feature by placing experts next to certain users like W456, StormW and a few others who know what they are talking about. There is too much wishcasting. State the negative and positive outcomes of 07L, be objective and subjective and stop spreading these misinformed predictions based on the fact you live in Floirda and not the 15 knots of shear increasing by Sunday.



so what are you saying olny weather experts get too post in dr m blog ???


if so then thats not right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon's been canceled. The trolls are going to have a field day today.
NO it has not been canceled.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting amd:


actually, I think it has been postponed.

Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

nope it is still on:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
JLPR, has the LLC moved? I thought it was to the north of the main convection. The scan you show puts it more on the eastern side? Am I just seeing things? Thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Regarding the dry air near Fred.

The air is dry in the 500-700 mb atmosphere around Fred which is used for to assess the likelihood of cyclogenesis. The water vapor imagery cannot 100% tell if the entire column of air is moist since it only it is mainly use to assess the upper environment.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
DrNo is correct.

Weatherunderground should introduce a new feature by placing experts next to certain users like W456, StormW and a few others who know what they are talking about. There is too much wishcasting. State the negative and positive outcomes of 07L, be objective and subjective and stop spreading these misinformed predictions based on the fact you live in Floirda and not the 15 knots of shear increasing by Sunday.
If you've been on this blog long enough, you know who to believe, and who not to believe. Bottom line is this-none of these people are on television spouting off their predictions, so why get your panties in a wad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, what a mistake they are making. Sure it's not a TD, but don't fly in it when it's gaining some convection north of the center? Horrible job this year!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Recon's been canceled. The trolls are going to have a field day today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL fred been dead from the start of SEP 12 with a few comes back from time too time
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wheres Patrap at with his wonderful pics?? figured he would have a great pic of freddie kruger..lol
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134. 789
Quoting InTheCone:
Gotta love this..



06z GFS ensemble models - LOL!!
ROFL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DrNo also gets a good kick to the ignore list.

I swear, in La Nina and Neutral years there is an unbelievable amount of wishcasting, but in El Nino years, there is an unbelievable amount of downcasting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
DONT FEED THE TROLL
agreed
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
DrNo is correct.

Weatherunderground should introduce a new feature by placing experts next to certain users like W456, StormW and a few others who know what they are talking about. There is too much wishcasting. State the negative and positive outcomes of 07L, be objective and subjective and stop spreading these misinformed predictions based on the fact you live in Floirda and not the 15 knots of shear increasing by Sunday.


wow
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
130. amd
Quoting tacoman:
fred will not intensify and the recon plane sched for this afternoon will be postponed..fred is looking horrible..i cant believe you guys are comaping fred with katrina what a joke..at least katrina had some spunk in here fred has nothing..fred will be and area of thunderstorms thats it..


actually, I think it has been postponed.

Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR:


yep Ex-Fred is looking interesting
it has developed a nice LLC, the thing is how high will the winds be when the HH get there, will they be enough for TD classification?
stay tuned xD

looking very impressive, imo...I think that is more than enough to be classified as a TD, but convection is depressing the NHC.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting InTheCone:
Gotta love this..



06z GFS ensemble models - LOL!!


Now THATS playing it safe. Lol. One of them bound to be right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
127. JLPR
Quoting watcher123:
103:

Yes, Fred has always had an LLC. In fact, at some times during it's life, it was nothing but a naked LLC.

My theory on this is that because it was so powerful and well organized as a hurricane, the LLC has survived off pure inertia of air that was spinning, just like a top spinning at a very high speed.

It's had some help from convection at times, but mostly its just been pure inertia and momentum keeping it going. Yesterday and today it has really been trying to fire off some convection.


Actually the LLC was lost for a few days, since its interaction with the ULL, but now it has recovered and you will notice the new LLC is smaller than the original LLC
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We are getting bombarded with trolls now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We all got IVANIZED that night!

lord wasn't that the truth...but still couldn't imagine it being Katrina though...
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DONT FEED THE TROLL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:

Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides.

Dr. Masters.....love the updates.....but, Dry air on FRed.......HUM.



Look pretty moist ... did that change?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just saw the 12z model runs and SFLA looks to be in the most danger of 07L, if it intensifies to have 35 knot winds, and nears the coast tropical storm watches will most likely be posted.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
119. JLPR
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning everyone,

Thanks for an early Sat Update Dr Masters.

This is a surprise, Fred looks like it is growing bigger every hour today.

Does it have a LLC with it?

Yes as a TD Katrina went away then returned right off the coast of SE Fla.

I guess we will watch x-fred..but they do not even have it as an invest yet so I do not understand why the HHunters going in today???


happy weekend everyone!
Gams


yep Ex-Fred is looking interesting
it has developed a nice LLC, the thing is how high will the winds be when the HH get there, will they be enough for TD classification?
stay tuned xD

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DrNo:


Eventually, huh? I wish that those of you who have no other life other than to sit around hoping for storms to form would toss your "Junior Forecaster" weather sets that you bought from Toys-R-Us into the garbage and get a life. Let those more experienced people do the forecasting... I swear, it is like the only time you seem to be alive is when you are trying to spread foolish rumors and baseless predictions... Why don't you go outside and play for awhile?
Sounds to me that you spend an awfully amount of time on this blog reading these amateur post. Who needs to get a life?
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Quoting Nolehead:
78. PensacolaDoug 2:12 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Quoting 850Realtor:
Warrington...right off NAS. Ivan destroyed our neighborhood.


Hi Neighbor.


over here in Elberta...yep Ivan did a wonder over here also....Bayou Grande was the worst!!!




Bayou Grande. My home has a water view of it.
Wasn't no picnic in Elberta either. We all got IVANIZED that night!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Think they ran out of ink for the lines???


Just as confused as the rest of us about the future of Freddie Boy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting InTheCone:
Gotta love this..



06z GFS ensemble models - LOL!!
lol, there is so much uncertainty, haha!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting InTheCone:
Gotta love this..



06z GFS ensemble models - LOL!!


Think they ran out of ink for the lines???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.