Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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1511. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:


Nice blog Weather456, got some good pics. Never been there. How are the resort acommodation? You port reminds me of some seatowns in the fjord region in Norway. Very nice.


When I was younger I had alot of fun in the back of a Fjord.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

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Daytona locals tried to surf Bill - waves coming a little too parallell to shore except for a couple of spots.
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Quoting Dakster:
Thanks MiamiHurricane09.
No problem
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1507. Grothar
Quoting Weather456:



lol, well for me, i live in the safe zone.

Also I have been inside the crater, like many others. But getting out is rather frightening since the walls are nearly 90 degrees (vertical)


Nice blog Weather456, got some good pics. Never been there. How are the resort acommodation? You port reminds me of some seatowns in the fjord region in Norway. Very nice.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26131
1506. Dakster
Thanks MiamiHurricane009.
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1504. Dakster
Watcher123 - I agree completely. I am still trying to figure out why it is taking us so long to make it back to the moon. Didn't we do this already?

Shouldn't the second time be quicker/easier than the first time?
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Quoting Dakster:
Status on FredEX? Did the energizer bunny run out of juice yet??
In my opinion 07L is dead, but still should be watched because models do develop it. On satellite it looks very poor because upper level winds have increased, colder waters are factoring in, and it is being just plain killed by the trough that it is NOW attached to.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting java162:
now this has to be the most boring hurricane season in a very long time!!!!!!!! no landfalls, its just a waste of a season

People living in potential landfall areas might consider this a perfect situation ...
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1501. TomSal
Weather 456 - The picture of Georges in your Update made me remember my daughter was working on Saba then, experienced that monster and has stated she never, never, never will go through another hurricane again. I remember sitting at my computer throughout the night it blew over Saba, just worried sick. Mother Nature is a huge force to be reconed with. I enjoy your Updates. Thanks. Tom
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Quoting Dakster:
Status on FredEX? Did the energizer bunny run out of juice yet??
Kinda confusing to me 2- invests 98
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1499. DDR
Quoting Weather456:



lol, well for me, i live in the safe zone.

Also I have been inside the crater, like many others. But getting out is rather frightening since the walls are nearly 90 degrees (vertical)

Good to know,very interesting i'd love to experience that some day.
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Good Morning!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Well, better St Kitts than, say, the Phillipines, where lahars are considerably more commonplace...
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1495. Dakster
Status on FredEX? Did the energizer bunny run out of juice yet??
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That's a nice little piece abt St. Kitts/Nevis, 456. Plus good pics....


Thanks that is actually part 2 of a two-part blog. The other was posted Saturday.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting watcher123:
1488:

Until you have a volcanic eruption followed by a tropical downpour.

Anyone feel like being buried in a flow of volcanic cement otherwise known as Lahar?


It would have to be an extremely long and intense downpour.

Lahars are mostly caused by melting glaciers near volcanoes or water from a crater lake.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
That's a nice little piece abt St. Kitts/Nevis, 456. Plus good pics....
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If anyone on the blog is located between Edwards AFB and Amarillo, TX, keep a l;ook to the sky as the Suttle is being moved from to Edwards to KSC and is on its first leg of the trip

SHTTLE TRACKER
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1490. tkeith
Quoting hunkerdown:
they will start the thrashing of the 'Aints at 1:00
LOL...

we'll see...
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1488. hercj
Quoting Weather456:



lol, well for me, i live in the safe zone.

Also I have been inside the crater, like many others. But getting out is rather frightening since the walls are nearly 90 degrees (vertical)
all would be worth it to live in the islands.
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Quoting DDR:
Good morning
456 from your blog 'dormant but not extinct'volcano
I'd be scared in the back of my mind i lived there no offense.



lol, well for me, i live in the safe zone.

Also I have been inside the crater, like many others. But getting out is rather frightening since the walls are nearly 90 degrees (vertical)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting TampaSpin:


I hate the freaking Eagles...who do they play today that you follow...
they will start the thrashing of the 'Aints at 1:00
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1485. DDR
Good morning
456 from your blog 'dormant but not extinct'volcano
I'd be scared in the back of my mind i lived there no offense.
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Quoting java162:


on the island of dominica in the lesser antilies.... erika and ana were just rain storms.. we have had plenty of much more intense rains from non named systems
U guys don't get hit that much anyway! lol

But seriously, I do know u haven't been getting the usual rain. I guess I found this year's season interesting in a different way from '07 and '08....
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Good Morning

Tropical Update

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Its not that I'm not looking forward to the cold season, but its going to get too cold come December, very unpleasant anywhere.

So enjoy the warm weather while it lasts!
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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



Yep, I mentioned by looking at the pattern, CIMMS shear map, westerlies come in today and shear is back in for 07L.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Quoting java162:


on the island of dominica in the lesser antilies.... erika and ana were just rain storms.. we have had plenty of much more intense rains from non named systems
Sounds like you would rather have had an Ivan or a Dean. I thank God the Caribbean has been blessed so far.
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Ike, I can't see that video. Apparently I'm not American enough to watch it.....
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Quoting tkeith:
I'm ready to track some cold fronts pushing south...way south.

Indeed! Like all the way past So. Fl!!!
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Quoting java162:
now this has to be the most boring hurricane season in a very long time!!!!!!!! no landfalls, its just a waste of a season


I can tell your 13 and you live in Southern Florida.
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The CFS' shear forecast is now coming into consensus with the upward MJO surge during October, for it now expects lower shear values.

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1473. java162
Quoting BahaHurican:
Seems like a perfectly good season to me....lol... lots of nailbiters...

BTW, where do u live? I think how boring a season like this is depends a lot more on whether the weather will actually impact u...


on the island of dominica in the lesser antilies.... erika and ana were just rain storms.. we have had plenty of much more intense rains from non named systems
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1472. tkeith
Quoting java162:
now this has to be the ost boring hurricane season in a very long time!!!!!!!! no landfalls, its just a waste of a season
one mans trash is another mans treasure Java, I think it's been an outstanding season so far...

I'm ready to track some cold fronts pushing south...way south.
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Quoting java162:
now this has to be the ost boring hurricane season in a very long time!!!!!!!! no landfalls, its just a waste of a season
Seems like a perfectly good season to me....lol... lots of nailbiters...

BTW, where do u live? I think how boring a season like this is depends a lot more on whether the weather will actually impact u...
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1470. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm just glad I don't have to expect huge amounts of tropical moisture, destructive winds, and hours of preparation and worry... outside skies are clear and blue, with a light easterly breeze....


Nice morning here too. I've got a pit with branches that need burning, along with a few leaves and boxes. Need to take care of it.

74 degrees outside right now.

Hey, I might be old, but I still can't drive 55!
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1469. tkeith
Quoting TampaSpin:


Dam i forgot your a Saint.....dam i love them Eagles today.......LOL......LMAO
LOL!

I've been seeing a car all week with a Bucs flag flyin out of his window here in NOLA...I think he's lost.
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A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 28N71W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT FROM 31N70W TO 25N71W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 70W-72W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N58W TO 21N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N62W.

------------------

NHC isn't even calling it "remnants of Fred" anymore...... I think they are saying "dead in the water". Now, if something does eventuate out of that little area, will they call it Fred again, or move to the next name?
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1467. java162
now this has to be the most boring hurricane season in a very long time!!!!!!!! no landfalls, its just a waste of a season
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Keith i change my mind on the teams i like on Sunday like my Forecast......LOL
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Quoting tkeith:
ahhh, The Saints!


Dam i forgot your a Saint.....dam i love them Eagles today.......LOL......LMAO
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Hmmm.... I see TAFB has analysed a shortwave trough in the WCar.... more blowup blobs in that area this pm... maybe...
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look at my avatar.......then one guess!
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I'm just glad I don't have to expect huge amounts of tropical moisture, destructive winds, and hours of preparation and worry... outside skies are clear and blue, with a light easterly breeze....
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1461. tkeith
Quoting TampaSpin:


I hate the freaking Eagles...who do they play today that you follow...
ahhh, The Saints!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.