Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:


I think you need a pill...a drink...a walk...something.

It's the weather...


Sorry, had to be said. They think they're so right, when in the end, they could be eating crow... like me.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting IKE:


I think you need a pill...a drink...a walk...something.

It's the weather...
he needs tropical re-hab to deal with the intense tropical withdrawals he's suffering from brought on by low ace and high shear and lack of persisent storm activity
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Convection seems to be waning on X Fred and a little with 98L at the moment.
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Quoting reedzone:


Sorry taz, I don't curse, so it was the best I could do lol. It had to be said.



but still it could have been said in a nicer way
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
honestly, i don't think much will happen with 07L, maybe a TD but no hurricane.


That's what I've been saying, TD or weak TS at best.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting IKE:


I think you need a pill...a drink...a walk...something.

It's the weather...


lol, Ike, yea ur right sometimes it can be taken out of control. But its more than weather for some. For me it's passionate.
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Quoting IKE:


I think you need a pill...a drink...a walk...something.

It's the weather...



am with IKE on that one
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
G'morning', catching up on posts.
Is there REALLY such a thing as a Junior Forecaster kit at Toys-R-Us, because I want one! (I could pretend I'm buying it for the grandkids.) Maybe from the Discovery Channel store? (So there, troll.)

CybrTeddy, if you're still here...are you over the H1N1 flu...I was worried when you had a setback the other day. We've been getting a lot of info/guidance from work. Seems one is supposed to be better after a week. Did you go back to the doctor? Are you much better? Hope so.


Actually yes I have been getting better thanks! My fever broke, and my symptoms have been gradually fading away although I think I'll still call in sick Monday, just to make absolute sure I'm alright.
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Quoting reedzone:


Sheared by 10-15 knots? Naa, just doing what 07L does best; however, it might try to regenerate tonight with favorable conditions. Dry air is the only thing that could halt formation.
honestly, i don't think much will happen with 07L, maybe a TD but no hurricane.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




re ported dont need to be rude about it and dont ues bad words


Sorry taz, I don't curse, so it was the best I could do lol. It had to be said.
They think they're smartalecs.. How about that one, there smartalecs!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting indianrivguy:


interesting that the one in the BOC is deeper than fred-ex


Yeah...i noticed that too.
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Quoting JLPR:
and 98L was circled red at 8am
if that wouldn't had happen I would be eating crow right now =P

still looks good even with convection waning,
maybe the MJO is in its negative phase, that could make the system pulsate, like Erika did,
at the start of d-min it starts to explode, after sunrise it starts to wane
it comes in cycle's the next convective cycle should commence late afternoon early evening est
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Quoting Tazmanian:




re ported dont need to be rude about it and dont ues bad words
you are being childish, sorry, just had to say it/type it.
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198. IKE
Quoting reedzone:
All you downcaster, yeah ALL of you downcasters, listen up!
and listen good!

You have a right to state your opinion, and you are subject to it. Though if you state that your opinion is a bold fact, that's when you draw the line. ENOUGH WITH THE DOWNCASTING!!! It's your OPINION not a fact. 07L could do anything, die, grow, dissipate. You don't know, stop trying to act like smartbutts!


I think you need a pill...a drink...a walk...something.

It's the weather...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


I know what to say about him. I dedicate this song to drop-dead Fred.




good one IKE
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Quoting BahaHurican:
2 reasons: 1) This was formerly a major hurricane, which has lasted in some form or other through a week's worth of horrible conditions across a hostile ATL, and 2) we're paranoid. WE just want to watch it NOT turn into anything as it crosses the coast somewhere, because we have had storms like Andrew and Katrina just blow up in that area between where FredEx is now and the Gulf Stream.



And 3)...some of us work in emergency management and need to monitor things when they are this close to land. Much to do if NHC were to begin issuing advisories.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
wow, 98L has an anticyclone, i didn't notice that, expect a TD later today.

98L's banding continues to increase:



07L is being shared around 360 degrees right now:





Sheared by 10-15 knots? Naa, just doing what 07L does best; however, it might try to regenerate tonight with favorable conditions. Dry air is the only thing that could halt formation.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting InTheCone:
Gotta love this..



06z GFS ensemble models - LOL!!
Looks like someone killed a fly on the screen... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I give up, there's no reasoning with these idiots. Ignoring, I suggest the rest of you guys do the same, maybe then we can have a reasonable discussion without all these downcasters.

I don't see any wishcasting at all, just people discussing their opinions.
Agreed any storm at the CONUS ront Door needs close watching those Waters FredX is entering are very warm Morning Cyber Hope Yu're all over our Flu
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Quoting reedzone:
All you downcaster, yeah ALL of you downcasters, listen up!
and listen good!

You have a right to state your opinion, and you are subject to it. Though if you state that your opinion is a bold fact, that's when you draw the line. ENOUGH WITH THE DOWNCASTING!!! It's your OPINION not a fact. 07L could do anything, die, grow, dissipate. You don't know, stop trying to act like smartbutts!




re ported dont need to be rude about it and dont ues bad words
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178. PensacolaDoug 2:50 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Quoting Nolehead:
We all got IVANIZED that night!

lord wasn't that the truth...but still couldn't imagine it being Katrina though...



STorm surge with Ivan was 11 - 12 ft here on Bayou Grande. It put water in my next door neighbors yard. I did the math with Katrinas surge. If Bayou Grande suffered a 25 ft rise like Mississippi did. I would have had water knee-deep on my 2nd floor. Horrifying to contemplate.


yep, same here..you are closer to the water than i am but not by much...i'm just north of josephine (pirates cove) so yes we would have been destroyed also..scary as heck to think about isn't it....just feel for all of those that did for sure.

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188. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont no what too think about fred

is he RIP



will he come back



will find out on are next TV show of

what will fred do


I know what to say about him. I dedicate this song to drop-dead Fred.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting fmbill:
12z NAM showing Landfall Tuesday btwn Cape Canaveral & Daytona.




interesting that the one in the BOC is deeper than fred-ex
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186. jpsb
exFred was looking pretty good this AM, now not so much. What is going on with exFred? Looked real hard here but could not see a spin. Is the llc north of the big blob of convection? Think exFred might get into the GoM? Looks like a pretty big trof just north of him but the convection seems to be going wsw. Very strange.
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wow, 98L has an anticyclone, i didn't notice that, expect a TD later today.

98L's banding continues to increase:



07L is being shared around 360 degrees right now:



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This 2009-2010 winter could be similar to the winter of 2004-2005. ENSO conditions are leaning that way for the Northeast.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Strange that there's so much attention on a system that the NHC still have in yellow. I know it's close to Florida, but still odd. But then our Freddie is an oddball.
2 reasons: 1) This was formerly a major hurricane, which has lasted in some form or other through a week's worth of horrible conditions across a hostile ATL, and 2) we're paranoid. WE just want to watch it NOT turn into anything as it crosses the coast somewhere, because we have had storms like Andrew and Katrina just blow up in that area between where FredEx is now and the Gulf Stream.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
i dont no what too think about fred

is he RIP



will he come back



will find out on are next TV show of

what will fred do
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Quoting Tazmanian:




this been posted


Then why all the chatter about whether the HH mission was cancelled?

Never mind...I know the answer.

Sorry...for the duplicate post, and the dumb question.
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179. IKE
Quoting amd:


actually, I think it has been postponed.

Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW



Figures...looking at how the convection is falling apart...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Nolehead:
We all got IVANIZED that night!

lord wasn't that the truth...but still couldn't imagine it being Katrina though...



STorm surge with Ivan was 11 - 12 ft here on Bayou Grande. It put water in my next door neighbors yard. I did the math with Katrinas surge. If Bayou Grande suffered a 25 ft rise like Mississippi did. I would have had water knee-deep on my 2nd floor. Horrifying to contemplate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
G'morning', catching up on posts.
Is there REALLY such a thing as a Junior Forecaster kit at Toys-R-Us, because I want one! (I could pretend I'm buying it for the grandkids.) Maybe from the Discovery Channel store? (So there, troll.)

CybrTeddy, if you're still here...are you over the H1N1 flu...I was worried when you had a setback the other day. We've been getting a lot of info/guidance from work. Seems one is supposed to be better after a week. Did you go back to the doctor? Are you much better? Hope so.

Add-On: Say, what happened to my portrait? It was just a pic of my two little doggies on Dewey Beach, Delaware. Has this happened to anyone else?

2nd modification to comment: Avatar just came back. Weird.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


No everyone can post put the just like how when Dr. Masters posts on his own blog, it shows up in yellow with the admin sign next to his handle. You do the same for the experts but instead of "admin" you put "expert".

That way we know who to listen to because there is too much misinformed predictions on the blog.




we dont need that
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173. JLPR
and 98L was circled red at 8am
if that wouldn't had happen I would be eating crow right now =P

still looks good even with convection waning,
maybe the MJO is in its negative phase, that could make the system pulsate, like Erika did,
at the start of d-min it starts to explode, after sunrise it starts to wane
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting fmbill:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.




this been posted
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Very different conditions in 2005, though. The likelihood of that w/ Fred seems a quite a bit lower to me.
that is true.
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 191500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 19 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.
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Thank you very much
Watcher #117 and JLPR #119
I appreciate you both answering my question.

so X-Fred does have a LLC.. hummmm

guess we will keep an eye on it for the next few days.

However, I still keep my prediction
No "Hurricanes" to Hit the CONUS this season.
We can have fun watching the "fish storms" just fine for one year! LOL

thanks again watcher and jlpr! :o)
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RECON HAS CANCELED THE MISSION 30 MINUTES AGO.

Sorry for the misinformation.
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The downcasters get a cookie now for saying recon would be canceled. However, this was a mistake the NHC *might* regret if Fred continues to organize in 10-15 knots of shear.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
i wonder if obama now has a NHC czar?? this might explain alot...LOL!!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree, anything is possible, this could rapidly intensify into a hurricane in 36 hours...most i remind you of Katrina in 2005, huh?
Very different conditions in 2005, though. The likelihood of that w/ Fred seems a quite a bit lower to me.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
12z NAM showing Landfall Tuesday btwn Cape Canaveral & Daytona.


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162. amd
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
nope it is still on:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW



that's from yesterday. what I posted was updated on the nhc web site at 10:15 est.

Link

Also, why would the NHC investigate a system whose LLC is ill-defined at best, with 95%+ of its convection well to the south of the ill-defined center, and also embedded within a region of pressures above 30.00 inches of mercury (1016mb).

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ohh well may be they want too see what feed XE dos today be for they send them
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.