Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
This blogs going to make me go nuts. Time to leave for a break rofl.
how r u feeling?
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This blogs going to make me go nuts. Time to leave for a break rofl.
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looks very good

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Sorry guys, I'm not letting go of 07L until it's circulation and convection completely dissipates. I think it's the right thing to do.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually yes I have been getting better thanks! My fever broke, and my symptoms have been gradually fading away although I think I'll still call in sick Monday, just to make absolute sure I'm alright.
Good To hear you're feeling Better Cyber
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Quoting Grothar:


Taz, I agree with you. Here is a little definition.

1) To write a blog entry. Blogs (definition #2 below) became so popular that the noun was turned into a verb; for example, "I'll blog about that subject next month."

(2) (WeBLOG) A Web site that contains dated text entries in reverse chronological order about a topic (most recent entry first). Blogs serve many purposes from personal journals to online newsletters to "ranting and raving." Written by one person or a group of contributors, entries contain commentary, observations and opinions and may include images, audio, video, links to other sites and even a search facility for finding earlier entries. See audioblog and vlog.

Blogs may invite comments and feedback similar to the Internet newsgroup discussions that started long before the Web came about (see newsgroup). For bloggers who want to develop a relationship with readers, user feedback is essential. Blogs often support RSS syndication, which automatically notifies users when new blog entries are posted (see
syndication feed).

Blogs are not always for experts. I agree with this definition, but don't agree about the "ranting and ravings" part. I've never seen anyone on here "rant and rave". Have you?




Nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting tornadofan:
Wow - you wishcasters are really good at pouting. Or is that really bad for pouting?


Again, were are the wishcasters? Am I one? Hope not, I'm just stating my opinion. Of course after all the obsessive paranoia I think some of us are feeling an opinion against their opinion is evil. This might just be the flu effecting my brain or, people are really confused and paranoid around here.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


No everyone can post put the just like how when Dr. Masters posts on his own blog, it shows up in yellow with the admin sign next to his handle. You do the same for the experts but instead of "admin" you put "expert".

That way we know who to listen to because there is too much misinformed predictions on the blog.
I disagree with this. Part of the skill of thinking for oneself is being able to differentiate between useful and useless information. It might be easier to have somebody tell you who to believe and trust, but it's not necessarily better. Additionally, this blog serves a very useful purpose of allowing inexperienced wx forecasters, especially non-professional ones, to make and justify forecasts, then see who those forecasts perform in a real world situation, but without threatening the public's wellbeing. Your approach would mean that their comments would be more likely ignored if they didn't agree with the so-called experts.

Additionally, who gets to decide who the experts are? I might want to include kman, drak, and TampaSpin. Would you want to do the same? Is the decision made by blog votes, in which case it becomes a popularity contest, or does the Doc make it, in which case it becomes just one man's opinion?

I think the blog is fine the way it is. The only "expert" I feel should be recognised in any blog is the blog owner. Besides, each of the respected bloggers in here has his/her own blog, which is read by many bloggers and lurkers every day. I don't think they need an extra "ribbon on the chest" to be respected by others here.
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and if i where Admin oh evere been Quoteing troll would get a 24hr ban
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Good morning everyone!! See "FredEx" is still getting under everyone's skin!! We don't need any sudden suprises, it won't hurt to watch and learn how wind shear can put a major kink in Tropical Cyclone development!!

98L looks like "Erika, Jr"! Pulls it together during D-MIN and quiets down during D-MAX!!

After last year, truthfully, we NEEDED a QUIET YEAR!!!

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Bye all. I'm out for now. Play nice and all that!
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everyone behave today...lol..out to the beach
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Quoting Tazmanian:




we dont need that


Taz, I agree with you. Here is a little definition.

1) To write a blog entry. Blogs (definition #2 below) became so popular that the noun was turned into a verb; for example, "I'll blog about that subject next month."

(2) (WeBLOG) A Web site that contains dated text entries in reverse chronological order about a topic (most recent entry first). Blogs serve many purposes from personal journals to online newsletters to "ranting and raving." Written by one person or a group of contributors, entries contain commentary, observations and opinions and may include images, audio, video, links to other sites and even a search facility for finding earlier entries. See audioblog and vlog.

Blogs may invite comments and feedback similar to the Internet newsgroup discussions that started long before the Web came about (see newsgroup). For bloggers who want to develop a relationship with readers, user feedback is essential. Blogs often support RSS syndication, which automatically notifies users when new blog entries are posted (see
syndication feed).

Blogs are not always for experts. I agree with this definition, but don't agree about the "ranting and ravings" part. I've never seen anyone on here "rant and rave". Have you?

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Poll!

Is Fred:

1. To be

2. Not to be.


To tell you the truth, I really don't know. Weather is very unpredictible. Alberto was set to die in 2006, then blew up a 70 mph. Tropical Storm. Very unpredictable, it's a wait and see with 07L. I'm done with the arguing.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
247. 789
Quoting DrNo:
Well, let me say this about that. I come on once a week because I am a social scientist and love to see all of these goings on. You all make for a good study. But ONCE a week. Not every minute of every day.

Second, to all of you who automatically throw the "troll" mudball or "ignore" those who take a different viewpoint, you are out of touch with reality. Open and honest communication is the only way. Just don't stae something as fact without evidence to back it up. MAny if you supply ample evidence of your being out of touch. Too much Dungeons and Dragons, I'd hypothesize...

The fact is, as others have pointed out, there is a lot of misinformation here, as well as baseless predicitions. Opinions are fine - they are opinions, but predictions should have some basis in evidence...
I WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE A SOCIAL SCIENTEST ,WOULD no better than to jump into anything swinging a ???!!! ball bat
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Quoting tacoman:
REED YOU NEED TO GET SOME SLEEP BUDDY THIS IS GETTING TO YOU BIG TIME...LEAVE FRED RIP AND MOVE ON MAN ..THIS SEASON HAS BEEN A ROUGH ONE WITH LOTS OS STRONG SHEAR DUE TO THE STRONGEST ELNINO IN A WHILE..HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER AT LEAST THE CAPE VERDES SEASON THE SST ARE STARTING TO COOL OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA..I CANT SEE US GETTING ANOTHER STORM THIS YEAR 6 IS THE NUMBER FOR 2009 REED...LOOK FORWARD TO NEXT SEASON REED AND TAKE SOME TIME OFF MAN..RELAX..



can you stop yeling Please
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Good luck Doug!
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With ex-Fred being where he is right now, I honestly can't say one way or the other. I've seen some crazy stuff in "them there waters!"
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Chill with the caps please!
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i dont think will see any more name storms in SEP


then yet oh nos???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
241. amd
Quoting tornadofan:
Wow - you wishcasters are really good at pouting. Or is that really bad for pouting?


They must have stock in kleenex
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually yes I have been getting better thanks! My fever broke, and my symptoms have been gradually fading away although I think I'll still call in sick Monday, just to make absolute sure I'm alright.

Sorry it took me so long to get back on here, dealing w/avatar weirdness. I'm glad you're better, C-Teddy, and sure, take Monday off...hope none of your colleagues caught it when you relapsed. Take care of yourself for sure.
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1. to be something....what? who knows..
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Poll!

Is Fred:

1. To be

2. Not to be.


am not too sure any more LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Someone else gonna hafta keep score 'cause Ima goin' fishin'.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Poll!

Is Fred:

1. To be

2. Not to be.
1
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think 98L will go out too sea mode runs been showing it
me too.
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Poll!

Is Fred:

1. To be

2. Not to be.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
reedzone and Maimihurricane,

You both are lying, I lurk alot and both of you was expecting rapid intensification from Fred.

Only IKE and Weather456 was not that impressed.


Hey! I did NOT expect rapid intensification, how dare you put words in my mouth! Off you go Downcaster!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
they need too make me a Admin LOL


any one fred is dead or is he makeing a come back fred been toying with us for a long time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
230. DrNo
PArdon my bad typing, by the way... Bye.
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Convection slowly growing north of the center, waning south of it. Weird little cridder.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
228. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he needs tropical re-hab to deal with the intense tropical withdrawals he's suffering from brought on by low ace and high shear and lack of persisent storm activity


After the ups and downs of this season, nothing surprises me anymore.

I don't see as well a defined circulation with Fred as it had yesterday, now that I can see what's left of it since the convection is fading.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
is Fred RIP or not to be RIP



whats find out
not RIP
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Admin Taz, what is your opinion on 98L?



i think 98L will go out too sea mode runs been showing it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
225. DrNo
Oh well, I'm out for this week... Ta Ta!
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
reedzone and Maimihurricane,

You both are lying, I lurk alot and both of you was expecting rapid intensification from Fred.

Only IKE and Weather456 was not that impressed.
learn to spell "Miami" before you post...good bye.
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223. DrNo
Well, let me say this about that. I come on once a week because I am a social scientist and love to see all of these goings on. You all make for a good study. But ONCE a week. Not every minute of every day.

Second, to all of you who automatically throw the "troll" mudball or "ignore" those who take a different viewpoint, you are out of touch with reality. Open and honest communication is the only way. Just don't stae something as fact without evidence to back it up. MAny if you supply ample evidence of your being out of touch. Too much Dungeons and Dragons, I'd hypothesize...

The fact is, as others have pointed out, there is a lot of misinformation here, as well as baseless predicitions. Opinions are fine - they are opinions, but predictions should have some basis in evidence...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is Fred RIP or not to be RIP



whats find out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Wow - you wishcasters are really good at pouting. Or is that really bad for pouting?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i feel like a Admin on this blog LOL


call me acting Admin Taz
Admin Taz, what is your opinion on 98L?
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Quoting reedzone:


Sorry, had to be said. They think they're so right, when in the end, they could be eating crow... like me.



yes but it could have been said in a nicer way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
would smartypants be ok to say?? LOL!!!
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Quoting reedzone:


That's what I've been saying, TD or weak TS at best.
ok, with that i agree, but don't get your hopes up too much, you might end up having to go to a psychologist if it does not develop into anything.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but still it could have been said in a nicer way


Ok rephrase.. Downcasters are smartalecs!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
i feel like a Admin on this blog LOL


call me acting Admin Taz
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
212. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually yes I have been getting better thanks! My fever broke, and my symptoms have been gradually fading away although I think I'll still call in sick Monday, just to make absolute sure I'm alright.


Glad you're feeling better.

Hope it stays that way.
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Quoting IKE:


I think you need a pill...a drink...a walk...something.

It's the weather...


Sorry, had to be said. They think they're so right, when in the end, they could be eating crow... like me.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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