Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricane23:
elongated disorganized circulation this morning with fred-ex no reason why TPC sould investigate what looks like a day time thunderstorm over south florida today.we'll see what happens once it taps those waters over the bahamas were shear could drop of a bit futher.Still not overly concerned about this feature.

adrian
Hey 23. Still looking like a rain event, I agree. What are u thinking abt path/direction? Any chance it'll move off to the north, in your opinion?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
Quoting watcher123:
I still expect rapid intensification from Fred's remnants.

I certainly don't trust the NHC or the other experts on this storm. They've obviously been wrong all along. "It's gonna die...it's gonna die...it's not getting past 35w...its not getting past 40w...its gonna die..its gonna die..."

Well, here it is still, about to enter the most favourable environment since it first formed.

It has done nearly the opposite of what the experts said all along. I expect that Fred's remnants shall rapidly intensify in a dramatic and alarming fashion.


Are you saying you dont trust the NHC in general or just on the forecast for Fred? I for one would trust the NHC with my families lives if it came down to it!! The weather is an unexact science and always will be. I personally think they do a great job.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Red.

Thanks for posting this Chicklit, maybe now some of us could star paying more attention where is needed!
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Quoting hurricane23:
elongated disorganized circulation this morning with fred-ex no reason why TPC sould investigate what looks like a day time thunderstorm over south florida today.we'll see what happens once it taps those waters over the bahamas were shear could drop of a bit futher.Still not overly concerned about this feature.

adrian



same here
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Loop
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elongated disorganized circulation this morning with fred-ex no reason why TPC sould investigate what looks like a day time thunderstorm over south florida today.we'll see what happens once it taps those waters over the bahamas were shear could drop of a bit futher.Still not overly concerned about this feature.

adrian
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I think that old front just stole about half of freds energy, is that what u meant 456?
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Red.
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Thanks Storm W. As a novice, I really appreciate your clear, concise reports that everyone can understand. Will continue to keep my eye on Fredex over the next few days.
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I really appreciate the comments guys again!
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Quoting reedzone:


Just like I will say goodbye to you my wunderground blogger friend, have fun stating untrue facts, bye bye now :D

Sorry Reed but I have been lurking for a very long time and now I will say my speak/....
Dude you make outright predictions....and your , maybe, well, possibly words aren't really evident
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too me fred looks like its becomeing a part of a cold front
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Dr. Masters never makes typos. I think he's shook up over the Hugo 20th anniversary.
Humor is sometimes good medicine, too.
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Quoting tacoman:
reed everything i stated on fred has been on the money so dont you crticize me because i was right and you were wrong..thats a fact reed so deal with it and quit being nasty to everyone..take some time off get some rest..
why don't u get some rest; since the season is over and all! besides, reed posts actual fact based inteligent stuff. even if he is off sometimes, but the nhc hasn't been exactly batting .1000 this year either though.
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INV/98L/XX
IR ANMIN. IMAGE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53613
Quoting divdog:
yea but you were way off on fred yesterday and because you are still talking about him you are still way off. Admit it and move on.


I'll admit that your going on my ignore list :) I told you I'm DONE ARGUING!
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Quoting Weather456:
While doing my update this morning, I noticed this frontal boundary and hinted to myself "hey it might do something to Fred" but it does appear it has.




But a great tool to look the flow through the entire atmosphere reveals it maybe having some effect on Fred

sorry for the repeat what's the Fred arrow above Ex Fred that says Fred are You saying that's where the regeneration will occur ?
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293. Relix
98L moving WNW definitely. Off you go =P
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Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, wunderpeople.
Will someone please Fredex me something for my tropical repression?


Hey there Chiklit. Long time no talk. We all promised not to mention the typo on "tropical repression" earlier.

But my definition of "tropical repression is when you live in "Florida" and your wife won't let you watch football on Sundays. End of story!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26050
Quoting reedzone:


I state opinions, I never said a storm will definitely hit somewhere or anything like that. I always use could, might, and may. I use these words because models are not always right, you got to look at the pattern and steering. Everyone has a right to state a personal opinion, not a untrue statement.
yea but you were way off on fred yesterday and because you are still talking about him you are still way off. Admit it and move on.
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Are You saying the arrow with Fred in the frontal Boundry is Fred? Pleaase Explain
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98L continues its banding process:

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Again, were are the wishcasters? Am I one? Hope not, I'm just stating my opinion. Of course after all the obsessive paranoia I think some of us are feeling an opinion against their opinion is evil. This might just be the flu effecting my brain or, people are really confused and paranoid around here.
I vote for paranoid.

Glad to see u are finally doing better, btw. Attended a brief work-related seminar abt H1N1 here yesterday, and the advice about staying at home until fully recovered is what stuck with me. Unfortunately, it's easy to think u are "over" the flu when u are not....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL UPDATE "QUICKCAST" OF FRED-EX AND 98L


Thank you, StormW.
As someone mentioned earier, some of us that follow the blog (or lurk) are in Emergency Management (or disaster assistance) and truly appreciate a heads-up from the wiser heads on this site. And yes, we know that things can change quickly...still, much appreciate a clearly-written projection.
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I promise this is the last blog on this subject. I am really more interested in was EX-Fred is doing, and that's a fact!!!

If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts.
Albert Einstein
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26050
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, wunderpeople.
Will someone please Fredex me something for my tropical repression?


LOL! heheheee
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Attractive scale:

(1 being lowest and 10 being highest)

I give 98L a "7":

\

Honestly i give 07L a "2":

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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL UPDATE "QUICKCAST" OF FRED-EX AND 98L
Good Morning StormW Hope Your Day is Going Good Enjoy the weekend thanks for the Update
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Good morning, wunderpeople.
Will someone please Fredex me something for my tropical repression?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I disagree with this. Part of the skill of thinking for oneself is being able to differentiate between useful and useless information. It might be easier to have somebody tell you who to believe and trust, but it's not necessarily better. Additionally, this blog serves a very useful purpose of allowing inexperienced wx forecasters, especially non-professional ones, to make and justify forecasts, then see who those forecasts perform in a real world situation, but without threatening the public's wellbeing. Your approach would mean that their comments would be more likely ignored if they didn't agree with the so-called experts.

Additionally, who gets to decide who the experts are? I might want to include kman, drak, and TampaSpin. Would you want to do the same? Is the decision made by blog votes, in which case it becomes a popularity contest, or does the Doc make it, in which case it becomes just one man's opinion?

I think the blog is fine the way it is. The only "expert" I feel should be recognised in any blog is the blog owner. Besides, each of the respected bloggers in here has his/her own blog, which is read by many bloggers and lurkers every day. I don't think they need an extra "ribbon on the chest" to be respected by others here.


Way to go Baha. But in my un-expert opinion, you should have ribbon for this one!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26050
Fred is to be no concern at the moment, however, not to be ignored.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10129
278. IKE
Quoting tacoman:
reed everything i stated on fred has been on the money so dont you crticize me because i was right and you were wrong..thats a fact reed so deal with it and quit being nasty to everyone..take some time off get some rest..


Your posts sound eerily similar to one....stormtop...stormno...or any other SN's you've used.
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Poor Dr. No!! My, my, my!!! Pinch me and call me Louise!! As a "social scientist", maybe you need to OPEN your eyes and OBSERVE!!

This WU is for everyone from the novice to the pro to learn, share, ask questions and have some fun!! The "trolls" are here, there and everywhere!!

We're PASSIONATE about weather! We love it and have loved it for years! Many of us work, have families and responsibilities and are we try to be decent people!!

Observe these things, IF you want to insult people, go look up "insulting blogs" on Google and go there and hang out!!

Have a nice day:

Bob Bordonaro
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I'll say this again, I never have and never do expect rapid intensification of 07L. It actually looks like the favorable conditions will be limited more then I though.
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98L looks like a boiling pot ...

Link
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INV/98/L
MARK
14N/40W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53613
i have update my blog
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it comes in cycle's the next convective cycle should commence late afternoon early evening est
I'm expect the central and NE Bahamas is going to get a goodly amount of rain in heavy downpours tomorrow evening and night at this rate.

After that, not so sure what to expect.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
While doing my update this morning, I noticed this frontal boundary and hinted to myself "hey it might do something to Fred" but it does appear it has.




But a great tool to look the flow through the entire atmosphere reveals it maybe having some effect on Fred

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Quoting tacoman:
REED HOLD ON TO HIM SAY YOUR LAST GOOD BY AND MOVE ON BUDDY...FRED WILL RIP LIKE ALL THE OTHER ONES BEFORE HIM..


Just like I will say goodbye to you my wunderground blogger friend, have fun stating untrue facts, bye bye now :D
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Quoting indianrivguy:


you are just a devil today... :)
lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:
and if i where Admin oh evere been Quoteing troll would get a 24hr ban


you are just a devil today... :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Again, were are the wishcasters? Am I one? Hope not, I'm just stating my opinion. Of course after all the obsessive paranoia I think some of us are feeling an opinion against their opinion is evil. This might just be the flu effecting my brain or, people are really confused and paranoid around here.


I state opinions, I never said a storm will definitely hit somewhere or anything like that. I always use could, might, and may. I use these words because models are not always right, you got to look at the pattern and steering. Everyone has a right to state a personal opinion, not a untrue statement.
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98L continues to organise with banding features. if this trend continues then we could have a TD as late today
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
This blogs going to make me go nuts. Time to leave for a break rofl.
how r u feeling?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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