Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:


Well it is the weekend, no school. I'm 20 going on 21 years old in November. I predict by pattern and steering. I never make bold statements saying it will do something. I always say maybe, might, or may because the weather is unpredictable these days, which is why I'm still watching 07L.

Ummm weather has always been unpredictable...
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With the models pat just showed, about 50% showed freddie at minimal to moderate t.s. strength at one point or another. I am not wishcasting; but it seems the chances are at least 50/50 at this point.
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Quoting reedzone:


Well it is the weekend, no school. I'm 20 going on 21 years old in November. I predict by pattern and steering. I never make bold statements saying it will do something. I always say maybe, might, or may because the weather is unpredictable these days, which is why I'm still watching 07L.
give it up wasting your time
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:


circulation is now showing and deepening.

ex-fred is moving into an area of high heat content with [5 knots] of shear which amounts
to better than favorable conditions over the next 24 hours with a decent mid level circulation
already showing it should do nothing but improve within the next 8-10 hours under
these somewhat better conditions.



Actually the circulation is weakening, vorticity has weakened. Again, I'm still watching it, but confidence is low now.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
No more 'upcasting' of this once lethal, way back when, Fred
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Quoting mossyhead:
i have never seen these people who are calling for rapid intensification before. Must be kids out of school.


Well it is the weekend, no school. I'm 20 going on 21 years old in November. I predict by pattern and steering. I never make bold statements saying it will do something. I always say maybe, might, or may because the weather is unpredictable these days, which is why I'm still watching 07L.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
The center is actually between the two primary convection masses.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
and it is moving NNE with the frontal boundary that has picked it up...It is dying out as we speak:


Good Morning/Afternoon!! Here's a send off for "Fred Ex", called, "Hit The Road Jack" compliments of YouTube and the letter "B", for BYE BYE!
Link
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Quoting hurricane23:
Rapid intensification huh....Please stop with these nonsence post.present upper conditions are marginal at best as fred remnants continue to be impacted by mid-level shear and some dry air.NWS has some of this moisture moving over south florida next week.would not be surprised if the bulk of the precipitation with ex-fred stayed out to sea as some models have indicated what appears to be very slow movement i.e; stall over the bahammas then taking the bulk of the rain northward into the carolinas.

3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.


1

I agree with you on that one Adrian. This system will slowly continue to organize over the next 36hrs. There is still, however, a good chance of this becoming Fred by Monday.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Please stop! There absolutely no reasoning behind this post.all recon tasks have cancelled by tpc this morning. Dry air along with with some shear in the mid levels are really putting a clamp on futher development. Might add 98L at this time appears to be no threat to the islands and eastcoast as yet another trof of low pressure turns it on north-westerly course.Heres a view at your 12z model plots for 98L showing a pretty well pronouned northward turn.


circulation is now showing and deepening.

ex-fred is moving into an area of high heat content with [5 knots] of shear which amounts
to better than favorable conditions over the next 24 hours with a decent mid level circulation
already showing it should do nothing but improve within the next 8-10 hours under
these somewhat better conditions.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


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Quoting mossyhead:
i have never seen these people who are calling for rapid intensification before. Must be kids out of school.
I'm 12 years old, jk. there is no school today, i think all the kids just came from Chuck E. Cheese and started posting. Next you are going to see Drak asking for when the next spongebob episode aires.
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:


ex- fred will soon be a tropical depression and possibly a minimal Tropical storm by tommorrow!

so i would not let your guard down -upper level conditions have changed quickly and ex fred has
a stronger surface circulation developing as we speak. Fred is currently spinning up and has a
surprize waiting for south central florida.


Please stop! There absolutely no reasoning behind this post.all recon tasks have been cancelled by tpc this morning. Dry air along with with some shear in the mid levels are really putting a clamp on futher development. Might add 98L at this time appears to be no threat to the islands and eastcoast as yet another trof of low pressure turns it on north-westerly course.Heres a view at your 12z model plots for 98L showing a pretty well pronouned northward turn.
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Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Which ones are the 'sophisticated" models... I love them
sophisticated take it out to sea.
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Some of the models are apparently forecasting the ridge to be strong enough to move it WSW by tomorrow.
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i have never seen these people who are calling for rapid intensification before. Must be kids out of school.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Statistical models have moved considerably southerly, and dynamic models have moved much more northeast,

Which ones are the 'sophisticated" models... I love them
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Pat.

Some of the dynamic models are turning that system pretty early, aren't they?


Only route available for 98L thru the future 96 hrs to come.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
FredEx 12 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



FredEx 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting Patrap:
Atlantic remains quiet for Later in September. Always a Good thing too.

Enjoy the weekend as fall approaches soon.



Thanks Pat, same to you. Can't wait for Fall to rech So.Fl.
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Quoting Patrap:
98L 12 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



98L 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Statistical models have moved considerably southerly, and dynamic models have moved much more northeast,
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Hey, Pat.

Some of the dynamic models are turning that system pretty early, aren't they?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
ok I meant no mo
Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:
ok.....a chant I will start now... PLEASE EVERYONE STOP GRASPING.... Here we go!!

NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED
NOW MORE FRED

I am sick and tired of hearing Fred... FredEX....and the best.."how dare Bill Masters call Fred dead"........ ugggggg
ding dong the witch is dead

OK I actually meant "no more Fred"... but "Now more Fred will work also"
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98L 12 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



98L 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
5day shear movie
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Show me the data that supports a strengthening surface circulation, since in analyzing surface observations, I'm having a hard time even finding a surface circulation.
and it is moving NNE with the frontal boundary that has picked it up...It is dying out as we speak:

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Quoting serialteg:


Just Tracking, is all ... you have to Track, look at all the info and just lay eyes on it. Some people here claim the NW turn is temporary and a high will quickly build back in - I haven't seen that anywhere on the forecasts, and when I asked if they could show me something, no answer. Maybe they referred to a high building back in when the invest hit 22N, which in that case doesn't concern me as much since I'm sitting in 18N66W, but maybe concerns them in the CONUS. I guess that's what's been referred to.
Right. I'd definitely be more concerned about a 22N return to a due west or WNW track, since that would allow whatever this situation evolves into to potentially threaten the Bahamas. OTOH, I have seen tracks that make that curve around PR in the past, so obviously it is possible. But definitely a watchable system....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
07L is now attached to a frontal boundary and should die out today. Bye bye 07L....Back to 98L.


this is not the case. better look again.
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Atlantic remains quiet for Later in September. Always a Good thing too.

Enjoy the weekend as fall approaches soon.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Expect a renumber later today, TD#8 soon...

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Quoting TropicalNonsense:


ex- fred will soon be a tropical depression and possibly a minimal Tropical storm by tommorrow!

so i would not let your guard down -upper level conditions have changed quickly and ex fred has
a stronger surface circulation developing as we speak. Fred is currently spinning up and has a
surprize waiting for south central florida.


Show me the data that supports a strengthening surface circulation, since in analyzing surface observations, I'm having a hard time even finding a surface circulation.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
07L is now attached to a frontal boundary and should die out today. Bye bye 07L....Back to 98L.


this is not the case. better look again.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good morning all! Just stopping in for a few minutes with some comments regarding the current situation in the tropics.

In analyzing the latest satellite imagery and surface observations, I will no longer be tracking ex-Fred (07L) since, as Weather456 correctly observed, the disturbance is getting drawn into the frontal boundary draped across the Western Atlantic that came off South Carolina yesterday. I have to agree with Adrian that there is no reason to send out hurricane hunters to investigate the system since, in my opinion, it no longer exists.

Invest 98L looks rather well organized this morning as a well defined circulation center, albeit somewhat broad, has developed. Also, as some have pointed out, low-level banding has become establishing indicating an increasingly organized system. Its interesting to note a weak upper level anticyclone has developed over the system giving it a better chance to further develop. Based upon the current trends, I now expect this to become a tropical depression sometime within the next 24 hours.


ex- fred will soon be a tropical depression and possibly a minimal Tropical storm by tommorrow!

so i would not let your guard down -upper level conditions have changed quickly and ex fred has
a stronger surface circulation developing as we speak. Fred is currently spinning up and has a
surprize waiting for south central florida.
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07L is now attached to a frontal boundary and should die out today. Bye bye 07L....Back to 98L.
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so far this is the year for 'no threat to land masses' storms.
please have a nice day everyone.
will be interesting to check back later.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
serial, hopefully the NHC has a better handle on this than Erika... that mess was all over the place. Something like Bill would be better... clear misses to the Caribbean. Then we could have a nice central ATL recurve, and that would be that....


Just Tracking, is all ... you have to Track, look at all the info and just lay eyes on it. Some people here claim the NW turn is temporary and a high will quickly build back in - I haven't seen that anywhere on the forecasts, and when I asked if they could show me something, no answer. Maybe they referred to a high building back in when the invest hit 22N, which in that case doesn't concern me as much since I'm sitting in 18N66W, but maybe concerns them in the CONUS. I guess that's what's been referred to.
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To: Reedzone

sorry but 07L is officially dead, as of now.

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Quoting Weather456:
Ronnie, possibly
Were you answering me sir? No worries either way, but, my name is robbie- nice to meet you sir!
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Rapid intensification huh....Please stop with these nonsence post.present upper conditions are marginal at best as fred remnants continue to be impacted by mid-level shear and some dry air.NWS has some of this moisture moving over south florida next week.would not be surprised if the bulk of the precipitation with ex-fred stayed out to sea as some models have indicated what appears to be very slow movement i.e; stall over the bahammas then taking the bulk of the rain northward into the carolinas.

3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 19/1415Z.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all! Just stopping in for a few minutes with some comments regarding the current situation in the tropics.

In analyzing the latest satellite imagery and surface observations, I will no longer be tracking ex-Fred (07L) since, as Weather456 correctly observed, the disturbance is getting drawn into the frontal boundary draped across the Western Atlantic that came off South Carolina yesterday. I have to agree with Adrian that there is no reason to send out hurricane hunters to investigate the system since, in my opinion, it no longer exists.

Invest 98L looks rather well organized this morning as a well defined circulation center, albeit somewhat broad, has developed. Also, as some have pointed out, low-level banding has become establishing indicating an increasingly organized system. Its interesting to note a weak upper level anticyclone has developed over the system giving it a better chance to further develop. Based upon the current trends, I now expect this to become a tropical depression sometime within the next 24 hours.
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Quoting StormW:
I'm out for now.

TROPICAL UPDATE "QUICKCAST" OF FRED-EX AND 98L

Thanks as always for your insightful info
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Quoting kmanislander:


Well, we see different states of organization. At the presnt rate at which the convection is disappearing it could become a naked swirl soon. The center has less convective cover with each new sat frame.

Is D-minimal affecting it?
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Ronnie, possibly
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serial, hopefully the NHC has a better handle on this than Erika... that mess was all over the place. Something like Bill would be better... clear misses to the Caribbean. Then we could have a nice central ATL recurve, and that would be that....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
The new upper level data maps are very interesting indeed .....

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Quoting Chicklit:


Loop

Starship Enterprise: Incoming blob


specially for us island folks
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Quoting hurricane23:
elongated disorganized circulation this morning with fred-ex no reason why TPC sould investigate what looks like a day time thunderstorm over south florida today.we'll see what happens once it taps those waters over the bahamas were shear could drop of a bit futher.Still not overly concerned about this feature.

adrian
Hey 23. Still looking like a rain event, I agree. What are u thinking abt path/direction? Any chance it'll move off to the north, in your opinion?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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