Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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I'm tropically depressed :-(
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A good link to see the,er..runs.
A good Link to Bookmark.
A good Link to Learn UTC time and when Models are Posted. Save it.

ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
407. JRRP
Link
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Quoting Patrap:


Depression?..wowsa..

If ya cover every angle,then how can ya miss,right?

LOL


Might, it's a strong word.. It may not become a TD tomorrow. Though I see invests like these looks ragged one day, then ends up getting a good convection pulse from DMAX that night and become a TD the next morning. So I dunno.. lol
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:

hmmm, ya learn something new everyday. I still stand by my statement. Tampasin is a horrible forecaster. Reed is no better either. Baha does not contribute indept analysis, just tries to correct others.

You have to be able to stay cool and stop wishcasting everything.



virtually everyone on here is just a blogger.
forecasting is tricky even for the pros after all it is not an exact science.

but despite all the posts ive read on here ex-fred still could re-develop just based on
upper level conditions and ocean heat content alone.

not to mention we are now in the peak part of the hurricane season.

if systems cant develop in 5kts of relaxed shear with already a low present and 88
degree water temps, in the peak of the season when then can they develop?
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Quoting Drakoen:
Looking at the models it appears that neither 07L or 98L will be a significant threat to land. Continued strong troughs should keep 98L away from the CONUS.


I in agreement here Drak,a early Fall in the Se CONUS bodes well for the door staying closed.

But those who "wish",..maybe re-load and start thinking about what Xmas will bring ya.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting Patrap:


Depression?..wowsa..

If ya cover every angle,then how can ya miss,right?

LOL


actually Pat he is right, or did you not notice the red circle the NHC gave 98L?
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I see Fred is using the Shotgun principle for Track management.. umm I am going. that way.. sort of maybe.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
lol we have had forecast models developing and holding a ridge for the next 10 days seemingly for 2 weeks

now all of a sudden we have more trofs? lol

I dont buy it, its not gaining any latitude now and the model consensus has been way off this season
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Quoting reedzone:
98L on the other hand, a nice DMAX blow up tonight and a Depression MIGHT be designated by tomorrow morning. Looks ragged today but that's normal for developing storms. Track wise, some say west, some say north and out to sea, I say wait until or IF it actually makes that turn to the northeast.


Depression?..wowsa..

If ya cover every angle,then how can ya miss,right?

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
98L on the other hand, a nice DMAX blow up tonight and a Depression MIGHT be designated by tomorrow morning. Looks ragged today but that's normal for developing storms. Track wise, some say west, some say north and out to sea, I say wait until or IF it actually makes that turn to the northeast.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
397. JRRP
weeeell 98L.............
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Looking at the models it appears that neither 07L or 98L will be a significant threat to land. Continued strong troughs should keep 98L away from the CONUS.
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Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Heck I don't come on here to make predictions
cool that... I always read and respect your commets


Thank you, I respect that as well :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting reedzone:


I don't pronounce a disturbance dead unless the circulation itself is gone. The circulation has been well defined and ill defined at times, it's been there since it came off the coast of Africa. Just a disorganized mess to me.

Heck I don't come on here to make predictions
Quoting reedzone:


I don't pronounce a disturbance dead unless the circulation itself is gone. The circulation has been well defined and ill defined at times, it's been there since it came off the coast of Africa. Just a disorganized mess to me.

cool that... I always read and respect your commets
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The circulation is under 10 knots, but again, VERY limited.. If it wants to develop, the time is now. Tomorrow the westerlies will shear it, according to the CIMMS shear map. Maybe less then 12 hours, it's close.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting reedzone:


I commend Baha! He said he would like it if this stayed yellow or nothing, he was right! :)
I think Baha was right on with 07L
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
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Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

SNAP



well with a near surface low and quick sat already showing close to 35 mph winds
it is practicly a depression already by definition but everyone on here wants to play
games instead. it doesnt take a whole lot of genius just to read from the NHC quotes
which is seemingly what everyone on here does without thinking for themselves or even
trying to forecast.

if it does not develop then it certainly has a chance to develop and if you disagree with
that then you need to look closer at the latest data


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Quoting Weather456:


Ok sorry about that I was blogging via cell phone. But I was trying to allude to the fact that Fred circulation maybe becoming elongated by the frontal boundary. Not sure if it will continue but is something observed.
like I said, no worries either way. thanks for responding to my post. I know everyone keeps u and storm busy on here. thank u guys for your input and responsiveness!
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 104
Quoting Hurricane009:
Tampaspin is a good forecast, Reed is an okay forecaster, and Baha is okay too.


I commend Baha! He said he would like it if this stayed yellow or nothing, he was right! :)
I think Baha was right on with 07L
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Yeah but you've been clinging on to fred all week... and never once have you said.. " you know Fred looks dead"...in fact I think you criticized Bill Masters and the NHC.. so now I'm shooting back at you


1st off his name is JEFF masters not Bill
2nd Reed has hung on to Fred because gee I dont know Fred was still around, and the NHC is still tracking the remnants. So I guess they are reaching too huh?
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Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Yeah but you've been clinging on to fred all week... and never once have you said.. " you know Fred looks dead"...in fact I think you criticized Bill Masters and the NHC.. so now I'm shooting back at you


I don't pronounce a disturbance dead unless the circulation itself is gone. The circulation has been well defined and ill defined at times, it's been there since it came off the coast of Africa. Just a disorganized mess to me.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting reedzone:


I said my confidence is low, it looks horrible, and it has 12 hours to get its act together if it does. Upcasting and wishcasting? I think not! Just being real. Conditions are favorable now, it's a wait and see, again my confidence is low.

Yeah but you've been clinging on to fred all week... and never once have you said.. " you know Fred looks dead"...in fact I think you criticized Bill Masters and the NHC.. so now I'm shooting back at you
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Based upon the latest RAMSDIS satellite imagery, I'm now convinced that ex-Fred's remnants have become associated with the flow from the frontal boundary crossing to its north. I'm no longer tracking Fred as a system due to this development.
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Quoting will40:



He is allowed to give an opinion just like everyone else


Thank you, opinions are not facts. 07L may not develop at all, there's a decent chance it wont. though circulation is there and convection is there, so I'm still gonna watch it.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Uggg Reed give up... you've been upcasting this thing for a week now....
OK I play poker and when I know my cards suck I fold


I said my confidence is low, it looks horrible, and it has 12 hours to get its act together if it does. Upcasting and wishcasting? I think not! Just being real. Conditions are favorable now, it's a wait and see, again my confidence is low.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Uggg Reed give up... you've been upcasting this thing for a week now....
OK I play poker and when I know my cards suck I fold



He is allowed to give an opinion just like everyone else
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4111
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
So Weather456 is this good for development?

And thanks for answering my questions on satellite earlier.


No it isn't. Each satellite frame is telling me Fred's convection is being generated by pre-frontal flow rather than by the low itself.
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Quoting reedzone:
07L is now in 5-10 knots; however, it's limited before the westerlies pick up, it's got about 12 hours in my opinion to get its act together!

Uggg Reed give up... you've been upcasting this thing for a week now....
OK I play poker and when I know my cards suck I fold
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Baha,

I don't consider Tampa nor yourself as an expert. Maybe Drak but certainly not you two. You have to be able to reason and give accurate information.


this is a ridiculious post. Tampa and Baja both have been on this blog for years.
i myself have been tracking storms for 25 years and both of those people know
what time it is in the trpics trust me.

if im not mistaken Drak is just a kid who follows the tropics so this shows how accurate
your statement is. very uncool.
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07L is now in 5-10 knots; however, it's limited before the westerlies pick up, it's got about 12 hours in my opinion to get its act together!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Should be using low-level vorticity (850mb level) when analyzing for possible surface circulations. Below is an image of that. Notice how the vorticity has become elongated from north to south in reaction to the pull from the frontal boundary to the north. This definitely does not support your earlier statement that there is a strengthening surface circulation.



In addition, on satellite imagery you can clearly see ex-Fred's remnant becoming stretched in such an angle that it appears to be breaking down into a weak surface trough bisecting the frontal boundary to the north.

I really don't see much, if anything, that would support a further developing system. Hence why the TPC has cancelled all scheduled tasked missions for ex-Fred.

SNAP
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latest shear tendancy is showing even better conditions than before.



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Quoting tropics21:
sorry for the repeat what's the Fred arrow above Ex Fred that says Fred are You saying that's where the regeneration will occur ?


Read post 368
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Quoting robie1conobie:
Were you answering me sir? No worries either way, but, my name is robbie- nice to meet you sir!


Ok sorry about that I was blogging via cell phone. But I was trying to allude to the fact that Fred circulation maybe becoming elongated by the frontal boundary. Not sure if it will continue but is something observed.
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:



thanks watcher.

yes it is. and quick sat winds show nearly 35 mph winds already.
under 5 knots of shear and open warm waters fred could very well again spin back up.

to those who disagree they need to just take a closer look thats all.

try Storm W's blog if no one believes me.

Definite upcaster
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:


circulation is now showing and deepening.

ex-fred is moving into an area of high heat content with [5 knots] of shear which amounts
to better than favorable conditions over the next 24 hours with a decent mid level circulation
already showing it should do nothing but improve within the next 8-10 hours under
these somewhat better conditions.



Should be using low-level vorticity (850mb level) when analyzing for possible surface circulations. Below is an image of that. Notice how the vorticity has become elongated from north to south in reaction to the pull from the frontal boundary to the north. This definitely does not support your earlier statement that there is a strengthening surface circulation.



In addition, on satellite imagery you can clearly see ex-Fred's remnant becoming stretched in such an angle that it appears to be breaking down into a weak surface trough bisecting the frontal boundary to the north.

I really don't see much, if anything, that would support a further developing system. Hence why the TPC has cancelled all scheduled tasked missions for ex-Fred.
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Quoting watcher123:
332:



I agree. The center of Fred is still clearly visible at least 4 or 5 degrees south of the front.



thanks watcher.

yes it is. and quick sat winds show nearly 35 mph winds already.
under 5 knots of shear and open warm waters fred could very well again spin back up.

to those who disagree they need to just take a closer look thats all.

try Storm W's blog if no one believes me.

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Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Ummm weather has always been unpredictable...


i have to admit i thought about that when i read it too lol
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Quoting futuremet:


1

I agree with you on that one Adrian. This system will slowly continue to organize over the next 36hrs. There is still, however, a good chance of this becoming Fred by Monday.
not buying that claim for a second.
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Quoting reedzone:


Well it is the weekend, no school. I'm 20 going on 21 years old in November. I predict by pattern and steering. I never make bold statements saying it will do something. I always say maybe, might, or may because the weather is unpredictable these days, which is why I'm still watching 07L.

Ummm weather has always been unpredictable...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.