Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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461. JRRP
Quoting Relix:
98L looks HUUUUUGE on the Satellite link poste by JRRP. Looks like one of those major CV hurricanes in formation =P . Thankfully it seems it will go north of us here in the islands and to the sea.

not as fast...
:D
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Quoting futuremet:
Messy...



Circulation is disorganized and broad. Looks like it's not taking advantage of those favorable conditions.
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Track guidance did not verified over the past 24 hrs

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Quoting futuremet:
Messy...

more like "nothing".
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Messy...

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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Drakoen, don't you have homework to do?

From since school started you don't come to the blog as often. I love the weekdays when you are not here.


Flagged for administration.
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yo hurricaneaseason2006, you need to stop this crap with Drak ok

He comes on here and is being perfectly civil and you still go after him. Let it go!!
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07L made it to 70W. The circulation is between the waning convection to the south and the convection that's getting absorbed by the trough. 98L looks to be an interesting one, all it needs is a good DMAX tonight.
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Good Afternoon!



Overview
------------------------------------------------------
At this time 98L continues to show signs of strengthening even though convection is waning. At 2PM EDT you can expect the NHC to keep it's red circle despite convection loss. Chances are we will have our next TD at 5PM. If convection continues to drop then you can expect a orange circle at 8PM and no TD. For right now we should continue to monitor its progress.

Track
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At this moment in time... Scenario #1, if 98L stays weak >40MPH, this will most likely run into Puerto Rico and then La Española, and will likely die out. Scenario #2, 98L's winds are between 41 to 73MPH it will most likely go north of the islands, Puerto Rico and then curve out to sea. Scenario #3, 98L has winds of <74MPH, it will most likely curve out to sea before it reaches the northern Antilles.

-MiamiHurricanes09
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Quoting Drakoen:
The climate models forecast coincides with an El Nino year for winter. Colder conditions in the eastern 3rd of the country and wetter conditions in the southeast.


Pretty typical with el nino years as the storm track is futher southward.
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449. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Drakoen, don't you have homework to do?

From since school started you don't come to the blog as often. I love the weekdays when you are not here.


Uncalled for and rude...
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting presslord:


that would depend on how much colder...


How about some snow in Miami? or not that cold?
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446. Relix
98L looks HUUUUUGE on the Satellite link poste by JRRP. Looks like one of those major CV hurricanes in formation =P . Thankfully it seems it will go north of us here in the islands and to the sea.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
GFS has somewhat similiar result as CMC on xfred
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
Quoting Orcasystems:


See, thats the joy of being Married.. I am not entitled to an opinion.. especially based on facts :)

Caribbean still appears restless



LOL.. And true..
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Quoting centex:
Do any models support 98L TD tomorrow? Looks like NHC thinks probable. All the factors are in place. I don't see dry air to N being a problem and only shear could be problem especially if it pulls N. It's problem is size and time it takes to develop.


Read the intensity section here in my update.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Wetter weather meaning rain or snow??


Both. Conditions should favor cyclogenesis storms in the Gulf of Mexico that bring wetter conditions to the Gulf Coast States and Mid-Atlantic States.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
One model has a system developing off the coast of africa next week ( 144 hours).
cv season is done expect things to start settling down in far eastern atlantic very soon once we get to the end of next week then we get a two week window for something to pop up in nw or sw carb sw atlantic off bahamas and gom then it should settle down considably after that as the sweeping cold fronts start crossing and coming off the conus and entering the atlantic with the strong offshore cold flow commencing
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Quoting will40:


CMC showing remnants being abosrbed by the front then regenerating.


that is a possibility
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Wetter weather meaning rain or snow??


that would depend on how much colder...
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Quoting IKE:
Looks to me like Fred's remnants are being absorbed by the front to it's north. The NHC may say that on the next TWO.


CMC showing remnants being abosrbed by the front then regenerating.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
435. JRRP

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The strong trough the models advertise will have it's axis stretch all the way down to the eastern Caribbean in the mid and upper levels.
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The climate models forecast coincides with an El Nino year for winter. Colder conditions in the eastern 3rd of the country and wetter conditions in the southeast.
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Model consensus has been off initially all season long

They have had many storms going further north and east than where they ended up going; mainly due to overdoing the strength of the storms.

I dont buy the consensus on 98L until we see it gain some latitude and gain some strength.
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Do any models support 98L TD tomorrow? Looks like NHC thinks probable. All the factors are in place. I don't see dry air to N being a problem and only shear could be problem especially if it pulls N. It's problem is size and time it takes to develop.
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Quoting tkeith:
is there gonna be some cooler temps in the deep south (i.e.NOLA) behind these troughs?



Too early to tell as of now.
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Good afternoon everyone!

Just read Dr. Masters blog and I have to say StormW told me last night that there was a chance about remnants of exfred affecting SC/NC coast. Thatd great meterology forecasting when you can see all potential avenues for storms paths.
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424. JRRP
CMC is showing CAT 4
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Quoting Drakoen:
The most reliable models show very strong troughs advecting off the eastern seaboard. High pressure ridge system sets up over the southeast protecting us while a large deep-layered trough dominates the synoptic scale in the Atlantic by the mid week.



now is not the time to be a "model" fan i dont think.

The GFS is widely reguarded as one of the best and it doesnt even
see the circulation of the very "huge" and obvious 98l at all.

*poof* nothing.

watch the latest GFS animation for yourself DrakLink
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From the nola discussion tkeith,

Long term...
models have been really struggling with maintaining any sense of
run-to-run consistency with regards to next cut-off low evolution.
The GFS now shows a strong retrogression of the cut-off low now
west of the Continental Divide and stronger high pressure ridge
building over the middle of the country and deep troughing along
the East Coast. If this scenario plays out then any surface front
will certainly struggle to make it into area from the west.
Teleconnections would favor a better chance of a back door front
settling into area from the northeast if East Coast trough
continues to amplify as models suggest. This pattern is anomalous
for middle September so confidence is not so high on model solutions.
A good compromise would be the hold onto 30 percent probability of precipitation each day
mainly driven by Gulf and lake breezes as climatology would
suggest and await better model consistency before placing
confidence on any frontal passages next week. Temperatures should
be near to a few degrees above normal for the week. 24/rr
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421. IKE
Looks to me like Fred's remnants are being absorbed by the front to it's north. The NHC may say that on the next TWO.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting reedzone:


Might, it's a strong word.. It may not become a TD tomorrow. Though I see invests like these looks ragged one day, then ends up getting a good convection pulse from DMAX that night and become a TD the next morning. So I dunno.. lol
i'll give you one thing , you are stubborn as a mule when it comes to fred.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


See, thats the joy of being Married.. I am not entitled to an opinion.. especially based on facts :)

Caribbean still appears restless

Yeah, the Western Caribbean does look stormy, like something could form.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The most reliable models show very strong troughs advecting off the eastern seaboard. High pressure ridge system sets up over the southeast protecting us while a large deep-layered trough dominates the synoptic scale in the Atlantic by the mid week.
is there gonna be some cooler temps in the deep south (i.e.NOLA) behind these troughs?
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Quoting reedzone:
I'll tell ya what I will wishcast on.. a light snowstorm for Northeast Florida where I live around Christmas just like in 1989 :D


Trust me... KOG and myself will be hoping for the same in Florida.. all Winter
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
The most reliable models show very strong troughs advecting off the eastern seaboard. High pressure ridge system sets up over the southeast protecting us while a large deep-layered trough dominates the synoptic scale in the Atlantic by the mid week.
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I'll tell ya what I will wishcast on.. a light snowstorm for Northeast Florida where I live around Christmas just like in 1989 :D
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
wow now people are getting blasted for their opinions based on facts lol

damn global warming lol


See, thats the joy of being Married.. I am not entitled to an opinion.. especially based on facts :)

Caribbean still appears restless

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
I'm tropically depressed :-(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.