Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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561. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:



hey all.


hola!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
hey iceman
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558. IKE
Quoting reedzone:
It really is trying, convection growing south of the center...



According to the latest TWO, it's a trough.
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556. IKE
From Melbourne,FL. afternoon discussion...

"MON-FRI...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE BULK OF THE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CUTTING OFF ON TUES. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUES NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS...AND
AN INCREASING NUMBER OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...RETROGRADE THE LOW
BACK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH SEVERAL OTHER MODELS ACTUALLY
EAST OF THE ECMWF POSITION...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE PRE-EXISTING DLM RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN
PLACE WELL NORTH OF FL...LIGHT TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OVERALL GIVEN LACK OF
FORCING/INSTABILITY. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
TC FRED IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF. HPC/TPC GUIDANCE BRINGS IT
AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINA COAST ON
TUESDAY
...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE
AND LOWERING THE POPS. SINCE HAVE BEEN LEANING ON THE ECMWF FOR THE
UPSTREAM DETAILS...WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION FOR TUES
IN BRING IN 40 INTERIOR/30 COASTAL POPS."...

HPC/TPC thinks it will amount to an "inverted trough." Latest TWO lists it as a trough.

I think the odds of Fred amounting to anything more are about 5 in 100.
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The Alantic in Later September is wunderfully Quiet.

And may it continue to be so.

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It really is trying, convection growing south of the center...



A very squished disturbance indeed. You can see banding, but again, squished like a pancake lol.
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x Fred has really slowed down now. If he can survive today and tonight I say he could do anything here on out :)
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Patrap - FredEx is the only way to send a remnant thunderstorm to the one you love.
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Quoting Dakster:
Weather456 - Well if this was easy everyone would be able to do it. Keep up the good work.


read again, lol

"makes it easier when a storm does not form or a forecast is busted"
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Weather456 - Well if this was easy everyone would be able to do it. Keep up the good work.
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When you need a Remnant Swirl to be there overnight,..

,,,you can count on FredEx.

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Haven't been on awhile because of school.
Lurked when I had the chance.

It appears to me Freddy boy's about had its last laugh. Its becoming drawn into a frontal boundary, re-development is unlikely but might provide some rains to Florida.

Then we have 98L, I'm not going to speculate on track but I do think 98L has a 60-70% chance of forming, the convection thats dissipating is because of Durinal effects, so don't get yourself into works. It will most likely blow right on back up again. It has good Divergence, and some small convergance.
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See I told you all. Our entertainment is about to begin.
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I'm so tired of hearing people give Fred his last rights here. When I see the priest drive up, get out of his car, walk up the drive, and knock on the door, I'll believe it. Until then, he lives.

Although I'll admit, looking at that precip. animation over the past two days has been like looking at a horror show for any well meaning tropical system. The whole Atlantic this year has been nothing but a freak show of wayward ULL's, that seem to hone in on every moist flare up, as if by mischievous design.
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Quoting reedzone:
To take note the circulation is very ill defined but not getting absorbed by a trough, what your seeing is the moisture getting absorbed. Although it's only a matter of time before time runs out and 07L gets hit with westerly shear which is getting closer by every update. Much closer then what I originally though, chances in my opinion are under 15% for any regeneration.


Thanks, it answered BOTH my questions.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
Quoting futuremet:


It is probably another deceptive-comeback attempt.

Several systems this season have driven the blog nuts because of this

-Invest 94L (early july)
-Invest 97L (late July)
-Ana (mid-august)
-Erika (early September)
-Fred FriggleStorm (mid September)


Yep, another "I'm gonna make it".. Hmm, I dunno Freddy boy!
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Quoting Dakster:
Weather456 - Is that like a definite maybe.


That one statement describes the unpredictability of the tropics. All the conditions could be favorable and a TC still does not form or a TC can form even within the most hostile locations even if all the conditions are not met. Whenever doing my job, I always keep that on my mind. It makes it easier when something does not develop or a forecast is busted. Not in this case though since I have generally expressed my disappointment in Fred's remains. However the QS pass this morning was very nice.
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Quoting reedzone:
Another burst of convection just south of the very ill defined center.



It is probably another deceptive-comeback attempt.

Several systems this season have driven the blog nuts because of this

-Invest 94L (early july)
-Invest 97L (late July)
-Ana (mid-august)
-Erika (early September)
-Fred FriggleStorm (mid September)
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541. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
207 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...WHAT IS LEFT OF FRED IS CURRENTLY NEAR 27N 70W AND
IT DOES HAVE SOME TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE LOW. THE GFS40 KEEP IT
FAIRLY STEADY IN STRENGTH AND MOVE IT NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE S.C.
COAST SOMETIME TUESDAY AND SWINGS THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OF IT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF 50-60% POPS TODAY, THE NEXT CHANCE OF HIGHER
POPS WILL BE WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY (50%). OUTSIDE
OF THESE TIMES, KEPT WITH A 30-40% DAYTIME CHANCE OF POPS. RATHER
DEEP EASTERLIES STAY WITH US THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.

TIDES ALONG ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
BETWEEN A HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO THE RECENT NEW
MOON...AND THE LUNAR PERIGEE. REPORTS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WERE STILL INDICATED EARLIER ON FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH LATE TODAY. THIS COULD AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE WITH WATER COVERING PORTIONS OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. TO THAT EFFECT A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE KEPT GOING
UNTIL AFTER THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING (10 PM).

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE IN STORED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK OR THE WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FORCING A FRONT DOWN TO THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS FRONT WILL
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA, SO WL STICK WITH CLIMO
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
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98L 18 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



98L 18 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Another burst of convection just south of the very ill defined center.



see those clouds to the west of it, those are westerly winds, winds that will shear 07L, and they're almost there...
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Weather456 - Is that like a definite maybe.
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I think the northern part of x Fred will be the area to watch. There does seem to be more convergence there. The lower level clouds up there look more interesting too. If that develops an LLC then it would head to the Carolinas like the ECMWF was showing. I wouldn't write off x Fred yet. He still has plenty of time to do something especially since it is slowing down now. Fred could range from a wave to a strengthening strong TS before its all over with. Wait and see game like its always been with him lately :) He is getting closer to getting out of that bad shear. 5-10kt shear is just west of him. Models are useless right now. It all depends on which area gets going and when the steering currents come to a halt. FL to the Carolinas is the likely path.
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takes its toll to have some excitement then huge buzz kill when its convection wanes then it re-starts.
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To take note the circulation is very ill defined but not getting absorbed by a trough, what your seeing is the moisture getting absorbed. Although it's only a matter of time before time runs out and 07L gets hit with westerly shear which is getting closer by every update. Much closer then what I originally though, chances in my opinion are under 15% for any regeneration.
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Link
Is 98L really moving WNW, I see it moving west with the LLC dead on 13N/43W?
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"The necessary but not sufficient conditions needed for cyclogenesis"

Love that.
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WE don't need a storm for blog entertainment. That is what WS is for...
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well really no one here thought Ex Fred would get this far west anyway, this system has survived everything that has been thrown at it

So how about just waiting to see how it plays out?
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529. Relix
Quoting JRRP:
O o


Models blow this year XD
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Quoting Seastep:


OK. Thanks for clarifying. Just might be misleading to some thinking you were labelling the center.

I obviously did. :)


sorry for the ambiguity but I would of used an "L"
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Quoting Seastep:


Yeah, interesting. When something's close and has a defined center, I don't turn my back until it's gone.

I was commenting on that as you were posting. See 507.

Have to see if it continues to increase or not.


You know what they say, great minds think alike. Just saw it as I posted. Thanks!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
Quoting IKE:


"SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS."


And? pre-Bill did the same thing, remained Red. Same with 98E yesterday, remained Red. I suspect the reason was because they think it because it became less organized today, its going to take a little longer to develop. Plus, gotta remember how HUGE 98L is. Durinal Minimum strikes again.
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Quoting Weather456:


I'm confused.

I labeled Fred, I did not positioned it.


OK. Thanks for clarifying. Just might be misleading to some thinking you were labelling the center.

I obviously did. :)
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futuremet-
great pic thx! fred's losing his convection is mentally draining to me, so i consider it painfual what he is going thru physically, simply as to be. fred has been literally the most draining storm, and thing is, it still has a chance of redeveloping unlike past ones... geez!
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522. JRRP
O o

06 GMT 09/19/09 13.2N 41.9W 25 1008 Invest
12 GMT 09/19/09 13.3N 41.8W 25 1008 Invest
18 GMT 09/19/09 13.5N 42.5W 25 1008 Invest
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521. JLPR
Quoting IKE:


"SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS."


so only because of convection it got downgraded to orange
That isn't right, the NHC is sure acting weird this year XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
520. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


Which is why I kept it there for only 30secs


Okay...you posted and then changed to a link.
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519. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
Futuremet - You may get banned for that picture... Although it was funny...


He won't get banned for linking it.
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Quoting Seastep:
456 - respectfully disagree with you position of FredEx. S of there, imo.


I'm confused.

I labeled Fred, I did not positioned it.
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517. IKE
Quoting JLPR:


yep and it maintained it
I don't get it, why did the NHC downgraded it to orange? :| They should have left it red since quickscat and the T# supports at least a red circle


"SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS."
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Quoting Dakster:
Futuremet - You may get banned for that picture... Although it was funny...


Which is why I kept it there for only 30secs
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456 - respectfully disagree with you position of FredEx. S of there, imo.
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Futuremet - You may get banned for that picture... Although it was funny...
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512. IKE
Here's what the NHC said about FRED on the 8am EDST TWO....
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...


Here's how they describe it now, on the latest TWO...A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS LOCATED

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Quoting Grothar:


Hey Seastep, fun evening on the blog last night, eh? Does it appear 007L is trying to grasp the moisture from its south, or could that be upper level winds knocking off the convection try to wrap back around?


Yeah, interesting. When something's close and has a defined center, I don't turn my back until it's gone.

I was commenting on that as you were posting. See 507.

Have to see if it continues to increase or not.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.