Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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98L is moving wsw...why?
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MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE IN STORED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK OR THE WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FORCING A FRONT DOWN TO THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS FRONT WILL
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA, SO WL STICK WITH CLIMO
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


...At least Orlando and Tampa will feel the affects of this front. But since this is a weak(going on moderate) El Nino, I have a strong feeling it will easily slip-through the whole peninsula and The Bahama's. Forcing the Bermuda Ridge far east!
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I am because I'm going to a party down on the island in a while, and sippin on a Pinnnnna Colaaaaaada, while you discuss about swirls

Here, while you're out relaxing, drinking Pina Colada's, check out this link and see where you may fit in!!

LOL!! Bob Bordonaro
Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I guess you missed my point.

Waidaminit.... is it that u think YOU should decide who is an expert in the blog????? Ohhhhh......

Now I am beginning to understand why u think such a proposal has merit.

For the record, I don't claim to be or even wish to be considered an "expert". I'm satisfied with my role of observer and sometime informant on wx conditions in my little neck of the woods. But if I wanted to be thought an expert, I wouldn't be depending on your little faux "kingmaker" schemes to get there.
Break out the troll spray and don't pick them up. I have seen you with some intelligent observations and if Tampa blogs with StormW I would think he knows something about the weather.
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Quoting reedzone:
98L has great structure, one blow up of deep convection around the center and a TD is probably born.



it's blockaded on the N and W by some good ole shear... and that AC's backing down i believe

same ole
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Quoting tropics21:
look at the animation being blown awayLink
Quoting tropics21:
look at the animation being blown awayLink
Not getting blown off right now. Link
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On that note, bb in a few. Sounds tasty right now.
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I don't like coconut, though, so I'd be enjoying a margarita. :)
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Baha,

I don't consider Tampa nor yourself as an expert. Maybe Drak but certainly not you two. You have to be able to reason and give accurate information.
I guess you missed my point.

Waidaminit.... is it that u think YOU should decide who is an expert in the blog????? Ohhhhh......

Now I am beginning to understand why u think such a proposal has merit.

For the record, I don't claim to be or even wish to be considered an "expert". I'm satisfied with my role of observer and sometime informant on wx conditions in my little neck of the woods. But if I wanted to be thought an expert, I wouldn't be depending on your little faux "kingmaker" schemes to get there.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22087
Quoting RitaEvac:


I am because I'm going to a party down on the island in a while, and sippin on a Pinnnnna Colaaaaaada, while you discuss about swirls


Sweet! Enjoy.
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Going to watch some college football, some good games coming up

Behave everyone, season ain't over til Nov 30th, but not much going to change in the next few hours

Be nice and go easy on RitaEvac, he likes the special attention
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


LMAO #1 reason I love that the 2009 season is over...

Dont need to hear RitaEvac say its over anymore lol, but he does keep coming around here so that tells me its not over


LOL, not completely, but it's getting there
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596. IKE
New 6-10 day temperature outlook is jumping back on board of troughs in the east w/colder air...



8-14 day which gets it into October....

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Quoting Seastep:
Good afternoon Rita.

Great to hear.

Thanks for stopping by to say goodbye.


I am because I'm going to a party down on the island in a while, and sippin on a Pinnnnna Colaaaaaada, while you discuss about swirls
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Quoting Seastep:
Good afternoon Rita.

Great to hear.

Thanks for stopping by to say goodbye.


LMAO #1 reason I love that the 2009 season is over...

Dont need to hear RitaEvac say its over anymore lol, but he does keep coming around here so that tells me its not over
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Good afternoon Rita.

Great to hear.

Thanks for popping in to say goodbye.
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Quoting markymark1973:
Some nice convection building on the south side of x Fred now.
look at the animation being blown awayLink
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I like Pinnnnnaaaa Colaaaadas....and dancing in the rain....because my season is over, aint nobody gonna tell me....I like Pinaaaa....
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Quoting markymark1973:
Some nice convection building on the south side of x Fred now.


Rather deep to, but we'll see, it is in favorable conditions right now.
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589. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


2009 is not finished yet


yep
09 is quiet but not that quiet =P
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Couple of more named storms and poof....2010 around the corner
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98L has great structure, one blow up of deep convection around the center and a TD is probably born.

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Some nice convection building on the south side of x Fred now.
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Rest of the season is about finished
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Quoting JLPR:
convection was stronger earlier today

but it looks more organized now, all it needs is to create deeper convection




2009 is not finished yet
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Quoting reedzone:


Quickscat showed a closed LLC, but I agree, it has opened up, though it was a trough a day ago and closed again this morning. It just doesn't want to give in. The westerlies will probably finally kill of anything on 07L as soon as tomorrow I think.


is it closed? is it open? why doesn't someone call and check?

:)

freddy not pickin' up?

98L is in my rearview mirror...
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581. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:



nice high ;)@#@#@#@


lol yep
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579. JLPR
convection was stronger earlier today

but it looks more organized now, all it needs is to create deeper convection


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98L 13.0N 42.5 W WSW AT THIS TIME
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Quoting Patrap:
When you need a Remnant Swirl to be there overnight,..

,,,you can count on FredEx.



I agree, but if you look closely, there may be a new twist to the developing story. Look how the trough is lifting out, leaving our boy in hurricane heaven.


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575. IKE
12Z ECMWF South America view shows insignificant lows in the eastern ATL. I agree with KEEPEROFTHEGATE...I think the Cape Verde season is about finished.
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574. IKE
12Z ECMWF.....shows nothing affecting the USA or islands of significance, through September 29th.
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm thinking that we will get a good cold storm this winter, snow in Florida? Probably not, wish though. I used to live on Long Island and for those up there, get ready for a mean winter, lots of storms tracking up the coastline. With the pattern we've been getting, snowstorms are a pretty good bet, of course things change. Tornadoes are a good threat for the southeast.


Yes, "probably not", but a 49% chance is also "probably not". chances could be better than our average though, do you think?
now bbl
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572. IKE
From Key West afternoon discussion...

"WINDS WILL BACK
TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...FORMERLY KNOWN AS HURRICANE FRED.
A
NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PUSH CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TOWARD THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT."
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
And I'm so sick Fred-Ex
So tired of tears
So done with wishing you were still here
Said I'm so sick of Fred-Ex, so sad and slow
So why can't I turn off the computer?


Don't think Ne Yo's song applies here.
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I'm thinking that we will get a good cold storm this winter, snow in Florida? Probably not, wish though. I used to live on Long Island and for those up there, get ready for a mean winter, lots of storms tracking up the coastline. With the pattern we've been getting, snowstorms are a pretty good bet, of course things change. Tornadoes are a good threat for the southeast.
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566. JLPR
why wasn't I told this was issued? lol

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191400Z SEP 09//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 41.7W TO 15.1N 45.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 41.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 41.8W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. INFRARED METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME BETTER OREGANIZED WITHIN THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATER (82-85F) , CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AND AID
IN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201400Z.
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Quoting reedzone:
I'll tell ya what I will wishcast on.. a light snowstorm for Northeast Florida where I live around Christmas just like in 1989 :D

Just in for a minute - not caught up - but saw that & think I would not discount that this year.

Not exactly a "beach day" in SE FL.

On our local MLB NWS site:
EL NINO AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL AND HYBRID
CYCLONE TORNADO EVENTS IN FLORIDA


bbl
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Quoting IKE:


According to the latest TWO, it's a trough.


Quickscat showed a closed LLC, but I agree, it has opened up, though it was a trough a day ago and closed again this morning. It just doesn't want to give in. The westerlies will probably finally kill of anything on 07L as soon as tomorrow I think.
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561. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:



hey all.


hola!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.