Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR:
Well 98L is having a really bad d-min xD

Lets see how it does in d-max

lacking convection, but taking on the real look & structure of a tropical cyclone imo, its a large system and sometime they take a while to fire strong convection, but once they organize can usually maintain it, jmo.
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gettin blown on the E side by the shear? watch movie

Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
Quoting JLPR:


97 into 98 was el Niño
98 to 99 and beyond xD was a la Niña


this year we have the leter G around the the same date...with la nina well established..maby the L..so sep 1998 was a neutral ENSO...
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Oh, i can give you a good explaination. According to history, after a quiet season is over, the next season is going to be very active. Not to mention, if El Nino wekens and it becomes a La Nina or Neutral season, then next year could easily beat 2005.


You are correct that more than 80% of hurricane season succeeding an El Nino is active however;

1)There is no guarantee that this El Nino will weaken in time for next hurricane season.

2)The 2005 Hurricane Season was an extreme anomaly of 28 storms and the last time that happen was 1933 with 21 storms. The chances of next year reaching 28 plus storms is very very slim regardless of the ENSO episode.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

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ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N71W JUST N
OF NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 28N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER S FLORIDA. AT
1200 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF FRED IS CENTERED 26N70W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N69W THROUGH THE LOW TO
24N70W. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS BECOMING ELONGATED ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS AS OF 1500 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N70W TO BEYOND 32N67W. BROAD UPPER LOW
COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 53W-69W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N58W 20N63W TO 23N67W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E
OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1026 MB HIGHS...ONE NEAR 33N43W AND A SECOND NE OF MADEIRA
ISLANDS.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
655. JLPR
Quoting farhaonhebrew:


then was neutral month or weak El Nino:


Nino ... ... Nina
1 1951 1 1950-51
2 1953 2 1954-56
3 1957-58 3 1964-65
4 1963-64 4 1967-68
5 1965-66 5 1970-72
6 1968-70 6 1973-76
7 1972-73 7 1984-85
8 1976-77 8 1988-89
9 1977-78 9 1995-96
10 1982-83 10 1998-2000
11 1986-88 11 2000-01
12 1990-92
13 1993
14 1994-95
15 1997-98


97 into 98 was el Nino
98 to 99 and beyond xD was a la Nina
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As much as people don't want to read this (downcasters).. 07L is making another comeback attempt! The difference with this one is that it's in 10 knots of wind shear. We'll see what happens.
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Fred got his groove on at exactly the 70th parallel.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Well, after traversing 2000+ miles of hostile conditions, it looks like FRED has managed to find a sweet spot. Should see some action for 12 hours, at least.
???????
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
Quoting Hurricane009:
IMO i think that next year will be as or more active then the 2005 season.
I'd love to see ur reasoning behind that.... u even beat out Gray and Kolbach.... lol
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Quoting JLPR:
actually La Ni%uFFFDad already established itself when Georges was around

check it
Link


then was neutral month or weak El Nino:


Nino ... ... Nina
1 1951 1 1950-51
2 1953 2 1954-56
3 1957-58 3 1964-65
4 1963-64 4 1967-68
5 1965-66 5 1970-72
6 1968-70 6 1973-76
7 1972-73 7 1984-85
8 1976-77 8 1988-89
9 1977-78 9 1995-96
10 1982-83 10 1998-2000
11 1986-88 11 2000-01
12 1990-92
13 1993
14 1994-95
15 1997-98
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648. JLPR
Quoting Hurricane009:
It looks better then what it did earlier besides the fact that convection has diminished. 1 good Dmax and we will have Tropical Depression #8


yep I said that on the other page xD
convection has waned but it gotten better organized, its a wait and see situation =]
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For other bloggers out there, sorry for the OT stuff... I've quit.

On FredEx, big change between earlier today . . .



and now....

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644. JLPR
Well 98L is having a really bad d-min xD

Lets see how it does in d-max
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La Ninas last twice as long as El Ninos. That's interesting.
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07L is starting to look interesting again, tiny band trying to wrap around the center to the south.



Maybe it MIGHT be taking advantage of those favorable conditions, it has about 8 hours to do so in my opinion. You can see the clouds to the west are the westerlies that should shear 07L.
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Well, after traversing 2000+ miles of hostile conditions, it looks like FRED has managed to find a sweet spot. Should see some action for 12 hours, at least.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
the model guidance from last night strongly suggests that the upper low will be significantly weaker. This change may be attributed to the fact that the disturbance that will develop this upper low over the plains is now entering an area with greater data collection, as such, the model guidance can better analyze the potential strength of the disturbance and resulting upper low.

The impact of a much weaker upper low over the central Plains is huge for this up coming week and for the next 15 days at least. For one, the upper low is now able to retrograde into the southern Rockies. As a result, the ability for a ridge to build over the Southeast is limited to nonexistent. The lack of a ridge allows the tough over eastern Canada, which is supported by the large ridge over western Canada, to dig much further south without an impedance.


...Why hasn't the NWS changed their synoptic forecasting from yesterday due to what the models are saying above?
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Quoting farhaonhebrew:
nop...letter G at sep 21...with la Ni%uFFFDa I dont think so...


You cannot based ENSO on the progression of a hurricane season. Just becuz 1998 only reach letter G at the time does not mean it was an El Nino year.

The 1998 hurricane season began late due to the dying of the of the 1997-1998 El Nino. A La Nina eventually developed late that year.

1998 was an active 14 named storms), destructive, and deadly hurricane season with Hurricanes Georges and Mitch the most notable storms.

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636. JLPR
actually La Niña had already established itself when Georges was around

check it
Link
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u r rigth, but was like this year..weak el Nino...Link
1997-1998 El Nino
the most recent event.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
BahaHurican,

Well if you got riled up on that post, you should of seen the other comment I posted about you.

I get a stange feeling you are trying to belittle someone. This blog has 2 very good forecasters. And you yourself know them.

Nope, this is not a popularity contest. Many websites out there have systems in place where they identify users who are of some use to the blog. For example, one website rates their users from a tropical disturbance to a cat 5 with a cat 5, a very well developed contributor. Weatherunderground would choose who the experts are.
Did u think u had "riled me up"? Were u hoping to?

I only got a confirmation on u, who u are and why u are here. Basically I commented about your suggestion, explained why I disagreed with it. You replied with an ad hominem attack. Go look it up if you don't know what it is, because this is your normal modus operandi, and it is not beneficial to the blog.

I really don't have anything else to add to our discussion, and as people have said, "it's been real"..... I will close by saying I will continue to [-] ur posts when you attack or denigrate the characters of other posters without cause, call, or provocation. But don't think u are special. I treat all such posts the same way....
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632. JLPR
Quoting Hurricane009:
1998 was a neutral year


ha! I see
well we were on our way to La Niña right? xD
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Vorticity has yet again increased with 07L

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630. JLPR

umm
I thought we were deeper in El Nino
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Quoting JLPR:


wasn't 98 a la niña year?
nop...letter G at sep 21...with la Niña I dont think so...
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Quoting farhaonhebrew:
Goerges hit us in Puerto Rico in a El Ni%uFFFDo year..maby this season happen again...


Georges struck when ENSO was neutral turning negative. El Nino had already weaken.
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624. JLPR
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
Goerges hit us in Puerto Rico in a El Ni�o year..maby this season happen again...


wasn't 98 a la niña year?
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hurricaneseason2006 - on the identifying note, I disagree.

I read posts and take each for its own and give it a weighted value based on what I know of that particular blogger.

As it should be. Don't need nor want someone else making that decision for me.
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Quoting serialteg:


nice hair, bro


thanks
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Goerges hit us in Puerto Rico in a El Nio year..maby this season happen again...
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
BahaHurican,

Well if you got riled up on that post, you should of seen the other comment I posted about you.

I get a stange feeling you are trying to belittle someone. This blog has 2 very good forecasters. And you yourself know them.

Nope, this is not a popularity contest. Many websites out there have systems in place where they identify users who are of some use to the blog. For example, one website rates their users from a tropical disturbance to a cat 5 with a cat 5, a very well developed contributor. Weatherunderground would choose who the experts are.


Ummmmm... so does this one. There's little + and - signs and you can filter as you see fit.
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Goodness, I will welcome the cooler air to the panhandle. Was outside for about ten minutes cleaning out my van here in PC and I am totally drenched in sweat, lol. This humidity is INCREDIBLE, ouch!
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617. JLPR
On this date 11years ago
Hurricane Georges had his eye on the islands getting ready to blast through them on the upcoming days. Really horrible hurricane that to affect many.



and what do we have today
98L, I will take ten 98Ls before another Georges =P
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Quoting markymark1973:
Not getting blown off right now. Link
Elongated circulation in my opinion eliptical
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
Quoting weatherbro:
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE IN STORED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK OR THE WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FORCING A FRONT DOWN TO THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS FRONT WILL
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA, SO WL STICK WITH CLIMO
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


...At least Orlando and Tampa will feel the affects of this front. But since this is a weak(going on moderate) El Nino, I have a strong feeling it will easily slip-through the whole peninsula and The Bahama's. Forcing the Bermuda Ridge far east!


nice hair, bro
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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