Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
Tropics chat?


I don't see why not.
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1558. Grothar
Tropics chat?
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Quoting watcher123:



In about 20-30 years, assuming we don't kill ourselves in WWIII started by some lunatic muslim or N. Korea, healthcare will no longer be a problem.

Based on Moore's law, Nanotechnology and quantum computing will allow for the removal of almost all forms of cancer, viral, and bacterial infections, without the use of antibiotics, vaccines, or anti-virals.

Imagine recieving an injection of nano-scale cell-sized robots, controlled by a computer on a wrist watch sized device. This computer can recieve regular updates for fighting new infections. The robots will identify pathogens and exterminate them. This is where healthcare will be in 20-30 years.


Tempted to pull up some quotes from 50 years ago saying that cancer would be easily cured.. or any other ailment.....
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting watcher123:



In about 20-30 years, assuming we don't kill ourselves in WWIII started by some lunatic muslim or N. Korea, healthcare will no longer be a problem.

Based on Moore's law, Nanotechnology and quantum computing will allow for the removal of almost all forms of cancer, viral, and bacterial infections, without the use of antibiotics, vaccines, or anti-virals.

Imagine recieving an injection of nano-scale cell-sized robots, controlled by a computer on a wrist watch sized device. This computer can recieve regular updates for fighting new infections. The robots will identify pathogens and exterminate them. This is where healthcare will be in 20-30 years.


30 years ago we were told that by now we would have colonized the Moon and Mars...the promise of technology is ofteen hollow...at the end of the day, PC's and the internet are just an efficient delivery system for gossip and porn...Where's my jetpack?
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Quoting Grothar:


How goes it canes?


Pretty well. But I have nobody to watch on TV today since the Dolphins don't play until tomorrow. How about yourself?
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Quoting Dakster:
Watcher123 - I agree completely. I am still trying to figure out why it is taking us so long to make it back to the moon. Didn't we do this already?

Shouldn't the second time be quicker/easier than the first time?
Other superpowers in the world as China,Russia and the European Union are focus on a more significant conquest, planet Mars, as a future target in the next 30 years; and this time one of them hope to beat the U.S.
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1553. Dakster
Quoting watcher123:



In about 20-30 years, assuming we don't kill ourselves in WWIII started by some lunatic muslim or N. Korea, healthcare will no longer be a problem.

Based on Moore's law, Nanotechnology and quantum computing will allow for the removal of almost all forms of cancer, viral, and bacterial infections, without the use of antibiotics, vaccines, or anti-virals.

Imagine recieving an injection of nano-scale cell-sized robots, controlled by a computer on a wrist watch sized device. This computer can recieve regular updates for fighting new infections. The robots will identify pathogens and exterminate them. This is where healthcare will be in 20-30 years.


Would be neat... But you think it is only 20-30 years away? I would have guessed further away.
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1551. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


It's alright. Not as impressive as last night. Still has some convection.


How goes it canes?
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Please Ignore Tacoman thank you


i cant ban any one be be come am NOT a Admin but i would love to be come one some day
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1547. IKE
Like someone took a wet washrag and squeezed the water out of it.
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1546. IKE
20/1145 UTC 15.4N 45.6W TOO WEAK 98L

What a downward MJO will do to an invest....

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Quoting Grothar:




This is what it looks like now.
Still a swirl but not much happening with it. Sorry canes!


It's alright. Not as impressive as last night. Still has some convection.
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1544. Dakster
Quoting watcher123:


Not really. Most of the existing space telescope plans are small individual telescopes. I have seen some mention of an array, but even that looks like a "small" project, the equivalent of 3 or 4 hubbles.


As for colonies and mining bases, they know how to do them, it is clearly possible with existing technologies, it just seems there is no funding. I think the general public has the impression that space mining and colonization is purely "science fiction," so that might explain the lack of funding.


Could Be? Could also be that we have other priorities at the moment. Health Care, Auto Bailouts, Banking Bailouts? Taking all the science money.

The company that won the Ansari X-Prize should be involved in the program too. THe proved something with a plane type, take off and landing vehicle that can make it into space.
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Quoting Weather456:


Taz did what now? Is that true? Taz is an admin?


No
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1541. Grothar
Quoting tacoman:
YES IT WAS LAST NIGHT LATE WHEN HEGOT ALL UPSET ABOUT FRED AND USED SOME FOWL LANGUAGE ON SOMEONE IN HERE..


Thanks Tacoman, I'll scroll back and see what he said.
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1539. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


I don't know what you're talking about that there are no waves over Africa. Last time I checked, there was a huge one over 3E last night. Grothar showed me it.




This is what it looks like now.
Still a swirl but not much happening with it. Sorry canes!
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Quoting tacoman:
yes taz banned him for using fowl language..


Taz did what now? Is that true? Taz is an admin?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting watcher123:


Not really. Most of the existing space telescope plans are small individual telescopes. I have seen some mention of an array, but even that looks like a "small" project, the equivalent of 3 or 4 hubbles.


As for colonies and mining bases, they know how to do them, it is clearly possible with existing technologies, it just seems there is no funding. I think the general public has the impression that space mining and colonization is purely "science fiction," so that might explain the lack of funding.


Ohok, well that explains alot.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1534. Grothar
Quoting tacoman:
yes taz banned him for using fowl language..


Do you know if it is permanent? Can't imagine tornadodude using foul language. Does not appear to be in his character.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Nevis Peak is a dormant stratovolcano which is located in the centre of the island of Nevis, West Indies. The mountain rises to a height of 3,232 feet, or 985 meters. There have been no eruptions since prehistory, but there are active fumaroles and hot springs on the coastal slopes of the island, and these represent low-level volcanic activity.


Ok that was Nevis Peak but the thread was on the last verified eruption was for Mount Liamuiga on Saint Kitts.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
98L has been discounted as an invest. Tropics are now quite and there is not much in the way of waves over Africa.


I don't know what you're talking about that there are no waves over Africa. Last time I checked, there was a huge one over 3E last night. Grothar showed me it.
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Quoting Weather456:


The last verified eruptions from the volcano were about 1,800 years ago, while reports of possible eruptions in 1692 and 1843 are considered uncertain.

Nevis Peak is also another volcano on the sister island and some have theorize that both are connected by one vent thus if one erupts the other will. I'm not sure if this is true.

Nevis peak


Nevis Peak is a dormant stratovolcano which is located in the centre of the island of Nevis, West Indies. The mountain rises to a height of 3,232 feet, or 985 meters. There have been no eruptions since prehistory, but there are active fumaroles and hot springs on the coastal slopes of the island, and these represent low-level volcanic activity.
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1529. Dakster
Problem with "mining the moon or mars" is that it is EXTREMELY cost prohibitive to bring the material back to Earth. It would have to be more precious than GOLD to make it "worth it" for private enterprise - at least in the short term.

Something like a gallon of water costs $50,000 to send up to the ISS....

In the very far, distant future, I can see us "Earthlings" colonizing Mars and the Moon.
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98L has been discounted as an invest. Tropics are now quite and there is not much in the way of waves over Africa.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Weather456:


The last verified eruptions from the volcano were about 1,800 years ago, while reports of possible eruptions in 1692 and 1843 are considered uncertain.

Nevis Peak is also another volcano on the sister island and some have theorize that both are connected by one vent thus if one erupts the other will. I'm not sure if this is true.

Nevis peak


Mount Liamuiga volcano, comprising the NW end of St. Kitts Island, contains a steep-walled, 1-km-wide summit crater, which contained a shallow lake until 1959. Two lava domes are located on the upper western flank, and intrusion of a 3rd dome, Brimstone Hill, on the lower SW flank uplifted a Pleistocene limestone block. Liamuiga volcano (sometimes referred to as Mount Misery) is the youngest of 3 NW-migrating volcanic centers on St. Kitts. Its most recent major eruptions less than 2000 years ago produced pyroclastic flows and mudflows whose deposits underlie populated coastal areas. Reports of possible historical eruptions in 1692 and 1843 are considered uncertain. An earthquake swarm occurred from late 1988 to early 1989, causing small landslides in the summit crater; another earthquake swarm took place in 1999-2000. Active fumaroles are found in the summit crater of Liamuiga.
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I am impressed... Weather 456's blog today is not only one of the most informative, it also has some beautiful pictures :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1524. Grothar
Does anyone know if tornadodude got banned. Didn't realize it but haven't seen him around. I hope not, he keeps the blog light and funny. Although, if I had him in one of my classes, he would probably be placed in the back. Only kidding!!
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20/1145 UTC 15.4N 45.6W TOO WEAK 98L

I give up, buh bye 07L buh bye 98L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting BahaHurican:
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 28N71W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT FROM 31N70W TO 25N71W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 70W-72W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N58W TO 21N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N62W.

------------------

NHC isn't even calling it "remnants of Fred" anymore...... I think they are saying "dead in the water". Now, if something does eventuate out of that little area, will they call it Fred again, or move to the next name?

I am sure it will be called 07L then Fred
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Quoting Grothar:


Forgot to ask, too! Do they know when the last eruption was. That is a beautifully formed volcano.


The last verified eruptions from the volcano were about 1,800 years ago, while reports of possible eruptions in 1692 and 1843 are considered uncertain.

Nevis Peak is also another volcano on the sister island and some have theorize that both are connected by one vent thus if one erupts the other will. I'm not sure if this is true.

Nevis peak

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
As you can see 07L is attached to a trough so that means that development is very very unlikely, unless it becomes sub-tropical. I would say right now we should discount 07L. 98L on the other hand should be monitored because since it is very weak it will not feel any affects of a weakness or a trough, so this little critter can end up anywhere between the Caribbean or on your front door.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1518. Grothar
Quoting Weather456:


The largest hotel is the Marriott with the Royal Beach Casino but there are numerous inns, guest houses, villas and other hotels scattered around the islands.


Forgot to ask, too! Do they know when the last eruption was. That is a beautifully formed volcano.
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1517. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:


Hope is wasn't a fjor fjairlane? Bad boy!


I'll never tell...

I think the blog will be a little slow, since there isn't anything out there...
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Not looking too spiffy:



Definitely not looking well:



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
watcher123,

I kinda agree with you that I would like to see NASA do more in my lifetime, like when President Bush proposed manned missions to the moon. But my question is, do they have or is getting the funding for such activities?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1514. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


When I was younger I had alot of fun in the back of a Fjord.


Hope is wasn't a fjor fjairlane? Bad boy!
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Quoting Grothar:


Nice blog Weather456, got some good pics. Never been there. How are the resort acommodation? You port reminds me of some seatowns in the fjord region in Norway. Very nice.


The largest hotel is the Marriott with the Royal Beach Casino but there are numerous inns, guest houses, villas and other hotels scattered around the islands.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1512. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:
Watcher123 - I agree completely. I am still trying to figure out why it is taking us so long to make it back to the moon. Didn't we do this already?

Shouldn't the second time be quicker/easier than the first time?


Hey Dakster!! How are you doing? I think the reason we haven't been back to the moon is that we 'have not been asked back' They said we left too much trash on the ground the last time we visited them!!! How do you think the blog will be today?
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1511. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:


Nice blog Weather456, got some good pics. Never been there. How are the resort acommodation? You port reminds me of some seatowns in the fjord region in Norway. Very nice.


When I was younger I had alot of fun in the back of a Fjord.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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