Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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761. JLPR
Quoting Grothar:


Knew you would be back. Its like giving up cigarettes, isn't. Just one last puff. Glad you're back. This blog is as quiet as the season.


xD yep
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
758. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
11 years ago today, almost everyone was a frenzy preparing for Hurricane Georges. I could remember that Saturday evening when filled large containers with water and supermarket were swamped.

Church was packed Sunday morning as we prepared what was going to be the worst hurricane in our history.

Ironically the calender dates and days for September 2009 are the same as September 1998.


yep ironic =P

Georges 11yrs ago
Sept. 19, 1998 6:46pm
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Grothar:
TO Chiklit: I really do not believe the season is over. I know it is el Nino and know about the shear, but it is only mid-September. We have a way to go. I am sure they will be some disturbances in the weeks to come. The blog will become active again.


I would agree.
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755. tropicofcancer

there have been some even bolder than that
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336. TampaSpin 3:46 PM EDT on September 17, 2009
"Anyone that thinks xFred is done....might want to rethink and re-evaluate there conclusion...

WE will have TS Fred again in 36hrs...."

Check the date and time....This was over 50 hours ago.

Another bold prediction that did not come true!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
11 years ago today, almost everyone was a frenzy preparing for Hurricane Georges. The Supermarkets were jammed pack. I could remember that Saturday evening when we had to fill up large containers with water.

Church was packed Sunday morning as we prepared what was going to be the worst hurricane in our history.

Ironically the calender dates and days for September 2009 are the same as September 1998.

At the same time we were celebrating our Independence
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting JLPR:
Had to come back lol
im too addicted to WU =P

and here we go I think


Knew you would be back. Its like giving up cigarettes, isn't. Just one last puff. Glad you're back. This blog is as quiet as the season.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
TO Chiklit: I really do not believe the season is over. I know it is el Nino and know about the shear, but it is only mid-September. We have a way to go. I am sure they will be some disturbances in the weeks to come. The blog will become active again.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
751. JLPR
Had to come back lol
im too addicted to WU =P

and here we go I think
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Satellite loop of Choi-Wan becoming extratropical

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
Choi-Wan is undergoing extra-tropical transition and you can tell this by numerous ways.

1. Satellite imagery revealed the storm has become asymmetric with the highest rainfall towards the northwest of the center and the highest winds on the northeast or eastern side of the circulation. These are usually the first signs of extra-tropical transition.

2. Another way of telling is by looking at the radius of maximum winds which expand during extratropical transition. The radium expanded from 42 nmi at 18/1800 to 79 nmi at 19/1800

3. Cold air intrusion in the extreme upper levels over the storm.

4. Probably the easiest way is by looking at numerical model phase diagrams which can tell the nature of a system by looking at the symmetry and radius of gale force winds. In the diagram below, Choi-Wan is currently an asymmetric warm-core system of which only 3 systems fir that description. Also notice the filled circle represents not only the central pressure but radius of gale force winds, which has gotten wider.









Great stuff.
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Quoting Chicklit:

Hi Sweetie. I think it was Babe Ruth who said that. Do you think we're in the bottom of the sixth inning as far as hurricane season is concerned? Trying to get a perspective on how much time before I go back to reading The New Yorker front to back again.


No, actually is was sung by Paul Robeson in the play "Show Boat" from the song "Ole Man River". Come on Chiklit, you always get these!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Station 41047
NDBC
Location: 27.469N 71.491W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 19 Sep 2009 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (81°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.8 F

Pressures are falling in the entire area, all the way to the FLA coast. 29.98 is not all that low though. But they are all falling consistently.

Information only, attacks neither required nor requested at this time!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting Chicklit:




It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.
Aren't we in about the bottom of the sixth?
Unless the season peaks late, yeah...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Chiklit!!! How are you? What was the exact words to that song, .....they just keep rollin' along!! Waves keep coming and we keep watching.

Hi Sweetie. I think it was Babe Ruth who said that. Do you think we're in the bottom of the sixth inning as far as hurricane season is concerned? Trying to get a perspective on how much time before I go back to reading The New Yorker front to back again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AS OF 3 PM...INCREASING NE WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. SEAS ALREADY NEAR 5 FT WILL BUILD TO SCA ALONG THE
CENTRAL LEG. THE WINDS 15-20KT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS SO BY SUN
MORNING EXP 4-6FT SEAS THROUGH ALL COASTAL WATERS. FOR S
WATERS...THE 6 FT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE 20 NM
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MON AND SE FLOW WITH
LESS SPEED WILL ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN A FOOT OR TWO. THERE WILL
BE SOME SE SWELL FROM THE REMNANTS OF FRED IMPACT THE
BEACHES...THOUGH THIS SWELL IS UNDER 2 FT SO LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE SCA. THE WEAK WAVE LEFT FROM FRED WILL MOVE INTO SC
TUE...BRINGING RAIN AND A BRIEF WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
MORE THAN 10 KT. THE PATTERN BECOMES DISORGANIZED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND
ALLOW SEAS TO FALL TO 4FT OR LESS THROUGH END OF THE FCST.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND ENE WINDS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE HATTERAS N ON SUN...AND MODERATE TO
CAPE LOOKOUT.

from weather service at morehead city nc. Looks like just a rain event.
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742. Halyn
Well .. you guys aren't providing anything to keep me occupied this afternoon .. lol .. I have admired the tenacity of XFred and Ana .. and am glad noone has been hurt so far .. I am safe in Illinois but not everyone is so unlucky .. lol .. while it is quiet, I want to thank all of you for providing me knowledge.. sometimes laughter .. things got a little testy several times lately .. and that was kinda fun .. I have my favorite posters :) .. so .. this great-grandma will continue to root for XFred as he tries so hard .. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Choi-Wan is undergoing extra-tropical transition and you can tell this by numerous ways.

1. Satellite imagery revealed the storm has become asymmetric with the highest rainfall towards the northwest of the center and the highest winds on the northeast or eastern side of the circulation. These are usually the first signs of extra-tropical transition.

2. Another way of telling is by looking at the radius of maximum winds which expand during extratropical transition. The radium expanded from 42 nmi at 18/1800 to 79 nmi at 19/1800

3. Cold air intrusion in the extreme upper levels over the storm.

4. Probably the easiest way is by looking at numerical model phase diagrams which can tell the nature of a system by looking at the symmetry and radius of gale force winds. In the diagram below, Choi-Wan is currently an asymmetric warm-core system of which only 3 systems fir that description. Also notice the filled circle represents not only the central pressure but radius of gale force winds, which has gotten wider.







Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Doesn't look like WAfrica is quite done w/ AEWs, either.
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Quoting Grothar:


All right Hydrus, I knew you would come through!! AtaaaaaaaK !(How's it going? saw you kept them going a little today. Keep them on their toes)
I did not post much today. Very busy. Quite a bit of shear near 98L. Fred will stall then move north then northeast. Western Caribbean is SLOWLY looking like it might form something.
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Quoting Chicklit:




It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.


Chiklit!!! How are you? What was the exact words to that song, .....they just keep rollin' along!! Waves keep coming and we keep watching.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There he goes again...
Looks about the same as the normal p.m. thundershower blowup over S FL, imo. I'm noticing the blowoff towards the T&C, but am still waiting to see how much of a blowup we'll have tonight. Maybe Mayaguana, Acklins and Crooked Island will get some rain tonight after all....
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Quoting hydrus:
That mean ole Grothar dude wants us to get whacked by cat-5 Freddie....


All right Hydrus, I knew you would come through!! AtaaaaaaaK !(How's it going? saw you kept them going a little today. Keep them on their toes)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
735. CUBWF
The buoy at27.28 and 71.49 is reporting winds from the north, so the llc might be south of there. Also presion falling but no that much as the wind going up, not that much either.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There he goes again...


Honestly it look like what we witnessed this morning, we'll see what happens. Not sold on this at all yet unless convection wraps around the center.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7436




It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.
Aren't we in about the bottom of the sixth?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There he goes again...


Hey Geoffrey, good shot. Have one on that site that shows the water vapor loop that shows the high to the east. I believe it give a good picture of the current status. Interesting to see how long that little burst can last???
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting Grothar:


It looks like there is a moderate burst of convection on Fred. Since I do not know where the exact center is, it may not mean much. It would appear that shear is relaxing a little, and the high pressure to the east wants to push it a little further south. I guess we have to wait and see how long this one lasts.

Attacks welcome at any time!!
That mean ole Grothar dude wants us to get whacked by cat-5 Freddie....
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730. IKE
NHC keeps the remnants as a surface trough the next 48 hours...

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009

SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC TROUGH 23N71W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 27N70W TO 30N70W
MOVING WNW 10 TO 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES
OF LOW...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 23N74W TO 31N72W. WITHIN 120 NM E
OF TROUGH FROM 27N TO 29N...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 24N77W TO 31N76.5W. WINDS LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I lived in Anchorage... during the cold war.

USSR was a VERY HOT TOPIC and, yes, Governor of Alaska needs to pay attention and does.
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Quoting iceman55:




Even if 07L does form into something, it will stall, meander, and then head to the north and northeast.IMO.
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Quoting reedzone:


07L is dying, dead, gone! You wishcaster you! :P Just playing, something to watch, it's been persistent so far.


OOOOOh! An attack!!! Glad to see you still have your sense of humor. It seems everyone is gone. My wife always calls me a "wishcaster", every time I tell her I "wish" she would stop nagging me. I better be kidding, she reads these blogs.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
There he goes again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


It looks like there is a moderate burst of convection on Fred. Since I do not know where the exact center is, it may not mean much. It would appear that shear is relaxing a little, and the high pressure to the east wants to push it a little further south. I guess we have to wait and see how long this one lasts.

Attacks welcome at any time!!


07L is dying, dead, gone! You wishcaster you! :P Just playing, something to watch, it's been persistent so far.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7436


It looks like there is a moderate burst of convection on Fred. Since I do not know where the exact center is, it may not mean much. It would appear that shear is relaxing a little, and the high pressure to the east wants to push it a little further south. I guess we have to wait and see how long this one lasts.

Attacks welcome at any time!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
722. JLPR
well im off till later tonight

XD ...later
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
708
Milton? Thank God,the voice of reason.
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Quoting presslord:
Link

Check this out...please forward, repost, etc...


LOL. I'd love to see Sarah take on Barack at jeopardy. Would kinda be analogous to Wolf getting crushed by Conan O'Brien's sidekick.

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718. CUBWF
Thank you hurricane009. So, now it's begining to go far from the sheer. Also the area around it looks more moisted. 07L may has just 12 hours to take advanced from those good conditions before a new trouhg came down to pull it north and sheer increase again.
Quoting Patrap:
.."Who claims that no Man is an island?,.while I'll wind up in jeopardy,more distant from you by degree's"..

They won't let me access those here - had to go out to my truck & get the CD
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Link


try this for recon
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
o for sure i agree with you but what we should be seeing and what we are seeing is two different things if anything may get a couple of east movers close to home in gom nw sw carb maybe sw atl. but after next week cv season will be as good as done imo
I always have this nightmare scenario that a mid to late October hurricane forms (something like Mitch, which did hit us as a T.S.) and destroys our area in S.W.FL. We have had some real bad ones over the decades. The old timers talk about them quite often. Especially when something gets close...
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712. CUBWF
Can somebody tell me where is the llc of exfred right now? They said at TWO it was at 26 and 70. If that's the case, then it will be under the new burst of convection it generate the last hours. Please.
I've lost my link to ASCII hurricane hunter data. I'm looking for data in a format like this:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
but for historical data. If you have a link handy, can you kindly post it? Thanks.

EDIT:
Never mind. I found it: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2009/
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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