Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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810. will40
10:58 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Quoting muddertracker:
Link

Why does the RAMMB site list Fred as a tropical depression?


Not sure about that it claims it updated 12 mins ago must be an error
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
809. 789
10:58 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


zombie fred
niiiiice
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
808. will40
10:57 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Hi ice
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
806. muddertracker
10:55 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Link

Why does the RAMMB site list Fred as a tropical depression?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
805. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:55 PM GMT on September 19, 2009


zombie fred
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54623
804. BurnedAfterPosting
10:55 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
Quoting JLPR:
wow the size of 98L is impressive


storms as large as 98L is overall it will take time to organize; which is why I feel it will continue west more than the models say it will
803. JLPR
10:54 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
wow the size of 98L is impressive
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
802. AllStar17
10:52 PM GMT on September 19, 2009
We don't want Ex-Fred to get in the GOM, that's for sure.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
795. markymark1973

In my opinion this system wont hit fla it will stay offshore
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
2006 you know to put words in my mouth huh? did I mention anything other than the fact you cant distinguish the difference between a trough and a true front?
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Again, it needs to wrap around the center, only hours till the westerlies take over..

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes its out running itself
Not a good sign. Maybe NHC had a reason for dropping to orange.
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X Fred is not getting sheared as bad to the south now and seems that convection is sustaining more now. It may even be trying to work over the old LLC. Could be a real interesting night especially with D-MAX. I don't think X Fred is just going to go away and be a naked swirl open wave when it hits FL. He just needs to get a little more west where the 5kt shear is and those high SSTs near the gulfstream should help out as well.
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The LLC is just under the Notheast part of the growing convection, at roughly 26.5, 70.2. I wouldn't be surprised to see Orange Alert at 8.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5618
Quoting JLPR:
unless the center moved to the east
the convection isn't developing on top of the LLC

yes its out running itself
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54623
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Tropical Depression Fred at 11PM? LMAO!!!

The nearest Fred will come to that name is causing alot of bloggers to enter depression. LMAO!!!
Fred does not look to healthy at the moment, I said yesterday that it resembled a thundershower that had its but kicked in. But if Fred regenerates, somebody might eat large amounts of crow.
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Good evening... quickly dropping in... well so far Fred's remnants have maintain some of its low level structure:



High continues to build across the E CONUS... RGB Sat images also reflect this as you can see by the movement of the CU fields... also WND conditions have become a bit more breeze from the NE across CFL to say the least.



In regards 98L... it has appeared it has slowed down some as it tries to consolidate better.

We shall see what DMAX has in store for both of these systems tomorrow AM.
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787. JLPR
unless the center moved to the east
the convection isn't developing on top of the LLC

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting CosmicEvents:

It's time to stop constantly down-casting Fred.
It's not too late for you to hop on the regeneration bandwagon.
I dunno why this sounds faintly religious to me... lol

Still don't know what to expect of ex-Fred. The one true thing that can be said is that the window of opportunity for redevelopment is closing, slowly but surely.

Drifting ever closer and ever closer to the islands....

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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Tropical Depression Fred at 11PM? LMAO!!!

The nearest Fred will come to that name is causing alot of bloggers to enter depression. LMAO!!!


That's the last straw for you buddy...see you later.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Tropical Depression Fred at 11PM? LMAO!!!

The nearest Fred will come to that name is causing alot of bloggers to enter depression. LMAO!!!


dude there is no front around freddie its a weakening trough
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782. JLPR
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's what I thought.... I think we boarded up for Georges, because we were SURE it would turn at the last minute.... we were among maybe 10 % of the population at the most who did. Turns out we were lucky with that particular storm. Then I was astounded a few weeks later by Mitch's power and the destruction he caused ....


I wasn't so lucky
Georges crossed PR from east to west, causing 7deaths I believe and 2billion in damages
so yep nasty one =P
and then later came Mitch which killed thousands :| that one was just too deadly
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting reedzone:


Honestly it look like what we witnessed this morning, we'll see what happens. Not sold on this at all yet unless convection wraps around the center.

It's time to stop constantly down-casting Fred.
It's not too late for you to hop on the regeneration bandwagon.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5618
Quoting JLPR:


got the Keys on the 25th
That's what I thought.... I think we boarded up for Georges, because we were SURE it would turn at the last minute.... we were among maybe 10 % of the population at the most who did. Turns out we were lucky with that particular storm. Then I was astounded a few weeks later by Mitch's power and the destruction he caused ....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Did Georges hit the Keys the following weekend? Trying to remember....


Yes; we had roughly 90 mph sustained at the State Gov Center in Marathon. Higher towards Key West where the eye brushed. I had minor flooding at the house and lost nearly every tree. We were lucky nonetheless. - take care
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IMO Fred will be back to TS status before he makes landfall.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Yes it has really become better organize...along a front, LMAO!!!


Where exactly is the front in relation to Fred? How many miles?
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Quoting Hurricane009:
We may have Tropical Depression Fred at 11pm.


Don't jump the gun yet 009. Convection is flaring up a little, but it will take quite a bit more before a depression could form. There are still a lot of factors against the system right now. See how long this flare-up lasts. Patience.
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X Fred is doing fine considering the position he is in. The trough is moving out and he is going to be moving to the wsw soon around the ridge and get into favorable conditions. Something he hasn't seen for about 2,000 miles+
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772. JLPR
Quoting BahaHurican:
Did Georges hit the Keys the following weekend? Trying to remember....


got the Keys on the 25th
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Did Georges hit the Keys the following weekend? Trying to remember....
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Quoting Seastep:
Fred is better organized.

Link


Pressures are falling, too! Again, not by much, but every buoy has been dropping every hour!
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Link

quickscat from buoy off of NC
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
Quoting will40:
755. tropicofcancer

there have been some even bolder than that

I know. Just in the last day xfred has been mentioned in the same sentence with Andrew, Katrina, Humberto and Frederic.
Never has so much been said about so little!
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Quoting tropicofcancer:
336. TampaSpin 3:46 PM EDT on September 17, 2009
"Anyone that thinks xFred is done....might want to rethink and re-evaluate there conclusion...

WE will have TS Fred again in 36hrs...."

Check the date and time....This was over 50 hours ago.

Another bold prediction that did not come true!!!
That is true. But you might consider cutting Tampa Spin a break on this one. It was a fair asessment given what was and is happening at the time. He also has a blog with all the tools to make a reasonable forecast.JMO
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Fred is better organized.

Link
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Hey Grothar!!


Hey Hurricane009! Look at the buoy data. Pressures are falling in the Bahamas! Not much, but they are steadily falling.
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761. JLPR
Quoting Grothar:


Knew you would be back. Its like giving up cigarettes, isn't. Just one last puff. Glad you're back. This blog is as quiet as the season.


xD yep
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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