Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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fred's scat (pun intended)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tacoman:
cosmic i see you have been hitting the sauce early lol..


LOL.. IKE can you queue up that hot tower video for Cosmic...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Good evening StormW.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Quoting InTheCone:


Agreed, do you think there is any future for this "system"?


The NHC stopped running their statistical models on it. Upper level winds may gradually become more favorable and should the circulation still be intact then it may organize. The odds are against it. It's having a hard time firing convection over the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
07L remains disorganized, regardless of more favorable upper level winds, with strong convection far removed from the system center:



Agreed, do you think there is any future for this "system"?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
ExFred is ready to enter a rapid intensification phase. I would not want to be in its path.


Rapidly Intensifiying into what? A thunderstorm... I say to FredEx BRING IT.
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07L remains disorganized, regardless of more favorable upper level winds, with strong convection far removed from the system center:

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2 yellows
one orange




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Wow, you guys remember that huge effort mentioned here after Hurricane Ike...

These guys made an incredible difference, and they're still helping:

Link

Check it out...

back to lurking...
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A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

Tonight is 07Ls last shot.. Lets see what happens! I'm not convinced because convection is waning and not wrapping around the center.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Hmmmm, there's a hot tower at the south edge of the center of the LLC of Fred-to-be-born-again.
The 8PM TWO should be interesting.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5535
Quoting iceman55:
fred get ready go kaboom imo

Watching "Fred Ex" and 98L on the WU satellite map!!

"Fred Ex" has been holding his own Lil 75MI convection party for about 3 hrs!! No increase or decrease in size and intensity!! He's supposed to be inland by early TU, so if he's gonna doing anything, he's running out of time!! Hopefully, this one doesn't pull any stunts!!

98L reminds me of "Erika"! Remember "Ms. on again/off again convection"!! Looks like 98L likes DMIN, it's starting to put up some convection and it also appears more organized than last night!! According to what I read from Dr Masters, this one might not get further than TS strength!!! BUT, this is the year of surprises!!
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NHC more optimistic that the conditions are favorable for Ex Fred

they have no mention of the frontal boundary absorbing the system, ex fred still has a shot
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841. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


both have the same date and time :/

also a great deal more N


Yeah I have never understood why they all have the same hour xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting JLPR:
comparing
old quikscat

brand new quickscat

looks better with a nice round shape
but winds are weaker everywhere


both have the same date and time :/

also a great deal more N, coincides with 37GHz?

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HELLO!
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836. JLPR
comparing
old quikscat

brand new quickscat

looks better with a nice round shape
but winds are weaker everywhere
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
191406Z SEP 09
FM NMFC
TO FNM
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NMFC/OVLY2/0262/SEP
OVLY/TCFA/191400Z5/SEP/1OF1/TCFA AL9809/METOC
LINE/2//G/131800N3/0414200W1/150600N2/0450000W9
LINE/2//G/144200N1/0405400W3/114800N4/0423600W5
LINE/2//G/114800N4/0423600W5/133600N3/0455400W8
LINE/2//G/133600N3/0455400W8/163000N0/0441200W1
LINE/2//G/163000N0/0441200W1/144200N1/0405400W3
TEXT/20//G/104800N3/0432400W3/TCFA AL9809
TEXT/20//G/094800N1/0432400W3/VALID UNTIL 201401Z
TEXT/20//G/084800N0/0432400W3/WINDS: 20-25 KTS
TEXT/20//G/074800N9/0432400W3/MVG: W AT 07 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
The comeback attempt appears to be over and convection is waning with 07L.. It tried, *gives props*
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
WTNT01 KNGU 191401
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191400Z SEP 09//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 41.7W TO 15.1N 45.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 41.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 41.8W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. INFRARED METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME BETTER OREGANIZED WITHIN THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATER (82-85F) , CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AND AID
IN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201400Z.//

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Link

Ex-Fred? Zombie is right!
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Quoting Weather456:
POSS TCFA
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting iceman55:
thank i try alot.they stopped running the models on Fred on the sfwmd page..wtf
Quoting iceman55:
thank i try alot.they stopped running the models on Fred on the sfwmd page..wtf


they got too confused with it lol
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4111
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yea! IT is about to go from totally nothing to completely nothing.


Agree lol
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
You did good ice lol
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4111
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
ExFred is ready to enter a rapid intensification phase. I would not want to be in its path.


I love sarcasm.
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I got to admit, the remnants of Fred are the most impressive remnants I have ever seen and tracked.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting will40:


Not sure about that it claims it updated 12 mins ago must be an error
Sure hope so.
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INV/98/L
MARK NEAR
14N/40W
CONVECTIVE REFIRE DETECTED

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
812. JLPR
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


storms as large as 98L is overall it will take time to organize; which is why I feel it will continue west more than the models say it will


yep
the smaller ones are the tricky ones xD
they can explode or weaken rapidly unexpectedly

and 98L is nowhere near small, it will need time to organize but the 850mb and the 500mb vorticity are coming together so this one should get going sooner or later
its has warm waters, anticlone, it seems to have devloped enough convection to create a moist envioroment
it has everything, the question is: will it use them?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.