Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting aquak9:
Thanks, Ike.

Well bless his little heart, he's not much more than a few rattlin' bones, but looks like some part of him that left Africa a coupla weeks ago, will actually make it to the CONUS.

That's determination.

FRED....the little engine that could....
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Quoting kmanislander:


The quikscat for the area where ex Fred is located has not been downloaded as yet for this evening


so the one I posted had the wrong time stamp on it?
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I'm going to say this and I personally don't care who likes it or if I get banned, I'm starting to lose faith in the NHC, I know they supposedly are the experts, I'm nothing weather wise & never claimed to be, but if I had put my faith in their forecast in 2004 with Ivan, instead of following my common sense and observations I'd be alot worst off today, case closed, jmo.
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908. JLPR
ummm....
19/2345 UTC 15.3N 44.3W T1.0/2.0 98L
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Thanks, Ike.

Well bless his little heart, he's not much more than a few rattlin' bones, but looks like some part of him that left Africa a coupla weeks ago, will actually make it to the CONUS.

That's determination.
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Quoting serialteg:


yeah, i hadn't seen that... im confused also...


The quikscat for the area where ex Fred is located has not been downloaded as yet for this evening
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Quoting CUBWF:

Thank you, but as some people said it was from this morning, that's why I asked.


yeah, i hadn't seen that... im confused also...
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Quoting Dakster:
serial - Yepper hit aint scat at the moment.


:/ 19:45 UTC is 3PM EST

its the link on the latest wind vector from the quickscat page i have (http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat09091919_07as.png)

whats goin on :(
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From now on, I declare that we have a new running gag on here. Whenever we see a new disturbance its going to be the remnants of Fred instead of Karen. :)
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902. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
ONLY TWELVE DAYS???

omg I'm losin' it...


I think it was an invest 1 to 2 days before that...so it's been going on for 2 weeks.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
ONLY TWELVE DAYS???

omg I'm losin' it...
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There is not storm named Fred. Is just a shadow of a hurricane it was. 98L not looking good shear again stop his deveolopment pace today lets see if he live for another day...
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Quoting aquak9:
Quick question- what day did fred first become an invest, and what day did he get named?

seems like this has been going on for weeks...


September 6 and September 8 respectively.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting reedzone:


What people have seen earlier was moisture from 07L getting absorbed, not the actual circulation. It's still moving west, but slowly. It's moving into a very small sweet spot, but knowing 07L, it may not do much. We'll see what happens tonight, 07Ls last chance!


Thanx Reed..so even if Fred does find that sweet spot, the best he should be able to manage is a strong tropical depression or storm? Or do you think he'll go higher and become a low level Cat 1 b4 landfall?
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896. JRRP
Link
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895. CUBWF
Quoting serialteg:


i just posted it a while ago (minutes)

Thank you, but as some people said it was from this morning, that's why I asked.
894. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Quick question- what day did fred first become an invest, and what day did he get named?

seems like this has been going on for weeks...


He was designated a TD on September 7th..Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Weather456:


YES!

I was thinking the same thing. I'm so relieved, i thought I was the only seeing it.


hehe

saw it a while ago - but i prefer not to go ga-ga cuz these things tend to form llc's everywhere so early in the game
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892. IKE
Buoy 41047 at 27.5N and 71.5W is close(within 50 miles) of the remnants of Fred.

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 94 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.98 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.3 °F
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CUBWF:
Where is supposed to be the llc of exfred by the last quidkscat. I havn't had the chance to check, cause my daugther is working a project in the pc tonight? Anybody, please.


i just posted it a while ago (minutes)
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Quick question- what day did fred first become an invest, and what day did he get named?

seems like this has been going on for weeks...
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889. CUBWF
Where is supposed to be the llc of exfred by the last quidkscat. I havn't had the chance to check, cause my daugther is working a project in the pc tonight? Anybody, please.
Quoting Seasidecove:
Now will Fred get picked up by this surface trough or is the trough to weak to have any major effect on him?


What people have seen earlier was moisture from 07L getting absorbed, not the actual circulation. It's still moving west, but slowly. It's moving into a very small sweet spot, but knowing 07L, it may not do much. We'll see what happens tonight, 07Ls last chance!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
886. JLPR
Quoting StormW:
Looks like another COC trying to get going near 15N;39.9W

98L IR2 LOOP


these invests with multiple COCs are going to make me go insane XD
too confusing
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
kuppen - sorry to hear you lost a family member. You have my condolenscences.
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Good Evening Everyone
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Quoting StormW:
Looks like another COC trying to get going near 15N;39.9W

98L IR2 LOOP


YES!

I was thinking the same thing. I'm so relieved, i thought I was the only seeing it.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Fred is looking more like my uncle Fred who just passed
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Now will Fred get picked up by this surface trough or is the trough to weak to have any major effect on him?
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879. JLPR
The convection firing to the west near 15N 44W is the one to watch since its the one closest to the center

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
07Ls burst is just like every burst it had, not impressed yet. Hours away till the westerlies take over, very low chance for regeneration. Yesterday afternoon I mentioned a ramp up before landfall, but last night I saw where the westerly shear was, probably won't do that. A correction from what I said yesterday. :)
We live and learn people, no need for bold statements because they're not right most of the time, opinions are more then welcomed!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Here we go again
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
876. JLPR
Quoting kmanislander:
98L located near 14 N 44 W


yep im waiting to see if they update the high resolution one, I want more details :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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874. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam so tried of fred


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
872. jipmg
ex fred is moving into VERY favorable conditions:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
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98L located near 14 N 44 W
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Quoting IKE:


I promise that's one funeral I'll go to....

There it is....just waiting for rapid intensification comments...


iam so tried of fred
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54230
That is the ascending pass from this morning.
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


sounded like Alfred Hitchcock.. :)

evening 8
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866. jipmg
Quoting serialteg:
fred's scat (pun intended)



the center is at 26N?
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Quoting Drakoen:


The NHC stopped running their statistical models on it. Upper level winds may gradually become more favorable and should the circulation still be intact then it may organize. The odds are against it. It's having a hard time firing convection over the center.


Thanks, looks pretty iffy, at best!

Good evening Storm.
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serial that is this mornings QS

tonights' shows the circulation is disorganized again and not closed
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serial - Yepper hit aint scat at the moment.
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862. IKE
Quoting tacoman:
no zippo there is no future for fred except his funeral...RIP..


I promise that's one funeral I'll go to....

There it is....just waiting for rapid intensification comments...


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
fred's scat (pun intended)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.