Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 961 - 911

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Quoting stormpetrol:

I heard about that, sent her home with "gas" yet this morning he awoke and found her dead I heard of sad, my cousin spent 2 days in the hospital and they let him out last Friday, what can I say though I think his case was quite a bit different , but as an ex -healthcare person I know, medically retired due to illness myself.
Well, I am sad to say if it was CIHSA I am not greatly surprised as we both know how "great" they are.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting IKE:
Think I'll go w/with the NHC says about the remnants...

A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.


IKE you gave FRED 100% chance of nothing....Do you still stand by that...YOU KNOW I'm just giving you a hard time now.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
959. IKE
Quoting serialteg:


you're really bent on this going west are you... i asked yesterday, where did you see a high forming so quick after the ridge erodes, and got zero answer.

maybe you meant after it goes like 22N-ish, in which case it doesn't bother me as much but would make sense to you, probably living in the conUS...

so north turn (or reformation) to me = overrated for you...



I've been posting and reading on here for over 4 years. Anytime a system is suppose to go NW, then north, where 98L is at, he says the same thing, 95% of the time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey StormW!

I noticed you don't seem impressed with FredEX. Are you expecting anything more than a thunderstorm from him. At this point I am not... But I could be wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poor "FredEx"!! He's shrinking again, looks like the little wart on those Freezone commercials!! Always hope while he's over water??

On the lighter side, anyone remember the movie "Airplane"? Johnny, the guy who made the quick, sny remarks!! Below is a clip of that!!

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fred's now entering a moist low shear warm water area.
On water vapor loop he's looking more symetrical than he has in weeks:).
There's an outflow channel even developing on the SW. Some banding on the SE.
I have him centered at 26.5N, 70.5W
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5611
I would say most Downcasters live either no where near Florida or in a Tropical envirnoment while the wishcasters are just the opposite!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
954. IKE
Think I'll go w/with the NHC says about the remnants...

A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Quoting serialteg

and very much N from the 12ish it was yesterday and this morning...

Northwest turn ahoy


That is not a NW turn, but a reformation of the center, two entirely different things


you're really bent on this going west are you... i asked yesterday, where did you see a high forming so quick after the ridge erodes, and got zero answer.

maybe you meant after it goes like 22N-ish, in which case it doesn't bother me as much but would make sense to you, probably living in the conUS...

so north turn (or reformation) to me = overrated for you...

anyway, if the thing reforms more N, it still goes more N than it would before now would it... think it over :)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting jipmg:


a Thunder storm or a tropical storm


"Thunder"... At least by morning it will be nothing more.. I bet we got harder rain today than FredEX will bring...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kuppenskup:
My apologies to you stormpetrol I had sent this before I saw your last statement my condolonces to you and your family,that wasnt directed at you Im just tired of people who look for anything negative they can find and expose it instead of exposing the positive.

Its okay ignore my reponse Comment#944, we all get carried away, its not my style to engage like this and I shouldn't be commenting tonight as I'm not in a sober mind , please forgive me everyone. thanks for your condolences , BBL next week when hopefully i'm in better frame mind. Keep safe.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
Quoting jipmg:


a Thunder storm or a tropical storm


He will be a Tropical Storm!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tonites DMAX with Fred might just push him over the top ........

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
947. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening all....Looks like Fred might be trying to become a Storm as the models are showing...



a Thunder storm or a tropical storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Burned-How is what I said whining?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kuppenskup:
95% of the time the NHC is correct. Some of you guys are like little babies, looking for anything that can possibly go the opposite. Why dont you point out the 95% of the time that the NHC is correct? But I guess if you did that you would be very bored.

Man take a dive 50% is excellent & don't think they exceed that, wake up man!!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
943. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My apologies to you stormpetrol I had sent this before I saw your last statement my condolonces to you and your family,that wasnt directed at you Im just tired of people who look for anything negative they can find and expose it instead of exposing the positive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It's good to let it out. Keeping it in tends to cause high blood pressure. Ralph Lewis's wife died last night from a sudden(and unexpected) heart attack.

I heard about that, sent her home with "gas" yet this morning he awoke and found her dead I heard of sad, my cousin spent 2 days in the hospital and they let him out last Friday, what can I say though I think his case was quite a bit different , but as an ex -healthcare person I know, medically retired due to illness myself.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
anyway be back later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all....Looks like Fred might be trying to become a Storm as the models are showing...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kuppenskup:
95% of the time the NHC is correct. Some of you guys are like little babies, looking for anything that can possibly go the opposite. Why dont you point out the 95% of the time that the NHC is correct? But I guess if you did that you would be very bored.


You are whining and you call everyone else a baby? LOL how ironic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
God I know the job of the NHC is hard & difficult & I sympathize, but I can't help but notice some down right "denial" this season. Please forgive me if I same a bit harsh but will I was commenting on this blog last Sunday I received news that my cousin had just dropped dead suddenly, he was also in denial and what a price to pay, please excuse the venting, I know its probably not appropriate!
It's good to let it out. Keeping it in tends to cause high blood pressure. Ralph Lewis's wife died last night from a sudden(and unexpected) heart attack.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
95% of the time the NHC is correct. Some of you guys are like little babies, looking for anything that can possibly go the opposite. Why dont you point out the 95% of the time that the NHC is correct? But I guess if you did that you would be very bored.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg

and very much N from the 12ish it was yesterday and this morning...

Northwest turn ahoy


That is not a NW turn, but a reformation of the center, two entirely different things
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


He has to make sure nothing pops up unexpectedley....
LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
933. JRRP
Quoting JLPR:
ummm....
19/2345 UTC 15.3N 44.3W T1.0/2.0 98L

12 GMT 09/19/09 13.3N 41.8W 25 1008 Invest
18 GMT 09/19/09 13.5N 42.5W 25 1008 Invest
00 GMT 09/20/09 14.5N 43.8W 25 1008 Invest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
God I know the job of the NHC is hard & difficult & I sympathize, but I can't help but notice some down right "denial" this season. Please forgive me if I same a bit harsh but will I was commenting on this blog last Sunday I received news that my cousin had just dropped dead suddenly, he was also in denial and what a price to pay, please excuse the venting, I know its probably not appropriate!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You got to watch them a lot closer than the weather. LOL


He has to make sure nothing pops up unexpectedley....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
930. JRRP
and again the convection is increasing near the center
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
I've got a bunch of teenagers to check on. Gotta run now LOL
You got to watch them a lot closer than the weather. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Go Kman - Don't leave them alone for too long...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've got a bunch of teenagers to check on. Gotta run now LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Not to mention the shortage of convection
It has increased some since earlier though.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
At like about 10 knots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like it but doesn't look like the winds are very strong.


Not to mention the shortage of convection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

Still a closed low at 14/42.5 imo.
Looks like it but doesn't look like the winds are very strong.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392

Still a closed low at 14/42.5 imo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
Quoting aquak9:
stormpetrol...I know we're all supposta believe the NHC as gospel, but how many days have gone by since fred was supposta go north?

And where did Claudette come from?

And wasn't Ike supposta hit miami as a cat3?

God gave all of us common sense, ok, maybe He left a few folks out....but like you, I agree, we're supposta use it.
I agree too. Seems like about the only thing they were right with this year so far was Bill.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night Kman. At least we finally started getting some decent rain. Still raining off and on in East End. Lots of thunder and lightning too.


Uh oh !. My daughter and her friends are whooping it up beside the pool for her 14th birthday !!. Please keep the rain on that end of the island
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let's remember that FRED began his run as an invest that the models called for to go NE! just passed the Cape Verde's.
.
.
Here it is 3000 miles later.
There's no reason to discount out of hand some model mis-calculation at the end of his run.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5611
Quoting serialteg:


so the one I posted had the wrong time stamp on it?


There are two simple rules to follow with Quikscat and you will never get it wrong.

1. The ascending pass is always the morning pass and the descending pass is always in the evening.

2. The time of the pass is NOT the time stamp at the top of the page ( which changes throughout the day ) but the time shown in purple at the bottom of the image.

By way of example, see the numbers 20:52 at the bottom of this evening's pass for the area where 98L is located
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


15.3 would be the extreme Northern edge of the low center shown in the QS pass


and very much N from the 12ish it was yesterday and this morning...

Northwest turn ahoy
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
stormpetrol...I know we're all supposta believe the NHC as gospel, but how many days have gone by since fred was supposta go north?

And where did Claudette come from?

And wasn't Ike supposta hit miami as a cat3?

God gave all of us common sense, ok, maybe He left a few folks out....but like you, I agree, we're supposta use it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
915. JLPR
Quoting kmanislander:


15.3 would be the extreme Northern edge of the low center shown in the QS pass


yep
I think im going to go away now,
I will come back later to see what has happened to 98L due to d-max, if anything

and now I mean it xD
later
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting stormpetrol:
I'm going to say this and I personally don't care who likes it or if I get banned, I'm starting to lose faith in the NHC, I know they supposedly are the experts, I'm nothing weather wise & never claimed to be, but if I had put my faith in their forecast in 2004 with Ivan, instead of following my common sense and observations I'd be alot worst off today, case closed, jmo.


no one's perfect, thats why we have so much fun here :D
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting kmanislander:


15.3 would be the extreme Northern edge of the low center shown in the QS pass
Good night Kman. At least we finally started getting some decent rain. Still raining off and on in East End. Lots of thunder and lightning too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting JLPR:
ummm....
19/2345 UTC 15.3N 44.3W T1.0/2.0 98L


15.3 would be the extreme Northern edge of the low center shown in the QS pass
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Thanks, Ike.

Well bless his little heart, he's not much more than a few rattlin' bones, but looks like some part of him that left Africa a coupla weeks ago, will actually make it to the CONUS.

That's determination.

FRED....the little engine that could....
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5611

Viewing: 961 - 911

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
63 °F
Scattered Clouds