Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Freddy Kruger just won't let the Kids sleep!...LOL
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I should add, the question IS INCLUDING 1953.

So far:
A-0
B-2
C-0
D-1
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1008. hercj
Quoting TampaSpin:
Fred although nearly Stalled seems to be moving slightly South of West.

Again, I thought the same thing.
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Fred although nearly Stalled seems to be moving slightly South of West.
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1003. beell
Quoting JRRP:

then 98L is unlikely that enter to the carib... isn´t it?


Too soon for me to make that leap. But the TUTT and attendant TUTT lows look to be hanging around for a while. Axis currently stretching from the western Caribbean to the NE Atlantic.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A. Final Answer


How much money should this be worth....LOL.
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B. My real final answer :)
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1000. hercj
Quoting AllStar17:
21
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B. 17... without looking it up, and that is just a WAG.
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998. JRRP
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Arrepentido. Yo no creo eso. Usted lo habla bien cuando usted escoge a. No, I don't speak Spanish. I googled this.

lol
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TQOD B. 17
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8322
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A. Final Answer


Okay.....

A-1
B-0
C-0
D-0

Winning percentage among WU Users who vote will be the "Final Answer"
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Quoting JRRP:

si pero no mucho
Arrepentido. Yo no creo eso. Usted lo habla bien cuando usted escoge a. No, I don't speak Spanish. I googled this.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8322
A. Final Answer
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I'll keep a tally by my computer and the poll closes at 10 pm for the question. Please try not to look up the answer. I will post the results of the TQOD shortly after 10.
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990. JRRP
Quoting serialteg:


you see? youre trippin man! u know english...

si pero no mucho
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989. JRRP
Quoting Grothar:


yes!!!!

Quoting beell:


Yes. Same ULL that "Fred" has been traveling with all week. Shear from the ULL the only real impediment to development.

then 98L is unlikely that enter to the carib... isn´t it?
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Quoting leftovers:
xfred still fighting shear lost some body parts today yet still pulsing interesting xhe is still moving wst sunday morning should be pulsing again


Watch DMAX tonite...could be a major Xplosion happen.
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Poll will close at 10 PM, and I will post results shortly thereafter.
The first Tropics Question of the Day:
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Hey, anybody see this yet??
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A storm reforming further north is still totally different than one moving NW, even if 98L reforms further north, it is still moving WNW.

Has nothing to do with wanting this to go west, but when you look back at this season; every single storm that has originated in the tropics (everyone but TD 1 and Claudette); every single one of them have gone further west than the consensus said they would.

I think many on here would agree with the eastward bias the consensus has shown this season

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983. hercj
Well I am with you Tampa Spin. I like everyone else have been watching this. What I do know is that we have a Tropical Entity at 25.0N 70.0W in mid Sept and people want to right it off. Not until it is no more.
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Quoting JRRP:
is an ULL north of PR?



you see? youre trippin man! u know english...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
I certainly don't live along the East Coast of Florida but, if i did i certainly would be prepared to loose power for 2-3 days from Fred. I don't think many realize because Fred is so small, how little it would take for his spin to turn faster....I'm sure i will take some heat from this post but, i really don't care anymore that some can't take someone honest post.
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Quoting Dakster:


Doc M went over that. Mainly with Ship reports. Remember, ALL trade was done via ships back then... So it is possible that one formed and was not noticed... So, yes, I see your point.


:)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
979. beell
Quoting JRRP:
is an ULL north of PR?



Yes. Same ULL that "Fred" has been traveling with all week. Shear from the ULL the only real impediment to development.

ADDED: Also providing upper level support for the convection
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Right click the X and show pic...that site does not like it to be posted openely for some reason....
Thanks Tampa Spin
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
Quoting tropics21:
where did the picture go? it's just a box with a red x can you re post?


Right click the X and show pic...that site does not like it to be posted openely for some reason....
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Quoting JRRP:
is an ULL north of PR?



yes!!!!

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Quoting serialteg:


hehe... and maybe there was, but how would've they've known?


Doc M went over that. Mainly with Ship reports. Remember, ALL trade was done via ships back then... So it is possible that one formed and was not noticed... So, yes, I see your point.
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Quoting mlmedley:
Has there ever been a year where there were no hurricanes or even tropical storms inside the carribean or gulf of mexico?
1997. None in the Caribbean and only one in the Gulf for about three days. One day as a TD, one as a TS and one as a hurricane.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8322
STORMPETROL-
You as well Buddy
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening all....Looks like Fred might be trying to become a Storm as the models are showing...

where did the picture go? it's just a box with a red x can you re post?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
Quoting StormW:


In order for anything to happen, it needs to move west about another 2-3 degrees. I'll give it about another 12-16 hours. IF the upper level winds stay conducive, it's not over until he is out of the Gulfstream. TCHP was running about 80-90 kj/cm2 close to the N. Bahamas and close to the SE FL coast.


Thanks StormW... I'm still not worried. Even though good ole Fred won't completely go away.
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969. JRRP
is an ULL north of PR?

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Quoting Dakster:


As a matter of fact there has been a year without any named storms in the Atlantic... It was along long time ago. I believe in the late 1890's. Dr. Masters talked about it in a blog several months ago.


hehe... and maybe there was, but how would've they've known?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
966. jipmg
Quoting Dakster:


"Thunder"... At least by morning it will be nothing more.. I bet we got harder rain today than FredEX will bring...


yea today we had some heavy downpours, it was windy as well.
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Quoting mlmedley:
Has there ever been a year where there were no hurricanes or even tropical storms inside the carribean or gulf of mexico?


As a matter of fact there has been a year without any named storms in the Atlantic... It was along long time ago. I believe in the late 1890's. Dr. Masters talked about it in a blog several months ago.
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Quoting IKE:


I've been posting and reading on here for over 4 years. Anytime a system is suppose to go NW, then north, where 98L is at, he says the same thing, 95% of the time.


Would be nice to see what he was claiming, is all... :D
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
963. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


IKE you gave FRED 100% chance of nothing....Do you still stand by that...YOU KNOW I'm just giving you a hard time now.....LOL


I gave it a 100% chance of not hitting the USA.

Convection dying off again with the trough.
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Has there ever been a year where there were no hurricanes or even tropical storms inside the carribean or gulf of mexico?
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Quoting stormpetrol:

I heard about that, sent her home with "gas" yet this morning he awoke and found her dead I heard of sad, my cousin spent 2 days in the hospital and they let him out last Friday, what can I say though I think his case was quite a bit different , but as an ex -healthcare person I know, medically retired due to illness myself.
Well, I am sad to say if it was CIHSA I am not greatly surprised as we both know how "great" they are.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8322

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.