Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Poll is now extended UNTIL 10:30 PM

So far:
A-2
B-3
C-2
D-1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thank you stormw
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I know this is off topic, but last week there was a debate about UF, FSU and UM

Well iluvjess said that FSU plays no one cuz they are in the ACC and it sucks

well I just found out today that FSU in fact has the toughest schedule of any BCS school this year, oh and a 54-21 beatdown of #7 BYU on the road is pretty darn impressive I would say.
I heard that also, and they did beat them down!
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Quoting iceman55:
InTheCone .SO GFS AND NOW ECMWF IMAGE western carribean.


Just have to wait and see, but it certainly wouldn't suprise me! Getting to be that time of year...
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1055. pottery
1050, Baha.
Nicely put. And so right...
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Quoting Seasidecove:
C - Allstar

Okay.

A-2
B-3
C-2
D-1
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C - Allstar
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Quoting IKE:
Think I'll go w/with the NHC says about the remnants...

A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
I'd also say about the NHC's forecasting with Fred that they have been spot on. Fred DID go north.... it dissappated as forecast due to high shear.... the remnants drifted west as forecast.... and frankly, what we are looking at today is NOT Fred.... It won't BE Fred unless it actually regains the required components to be reclassified. And even then the NHC was obvious in saying, regeneration, if any, would be very slow to occur.

I suggest the people criticizing the NHC re: Fred actually go and READ the discussions. Contrary to a lot of public/blog opinion, the NHC wasn't all that far off with this particular storm, mainly IMO because Fred was actually a hurricane, which gave them a better handle on its behaviour.

Bashing the NHC is one thing. Bashing them for something they didn't actually do is a horse of a different deadness....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
1049. JRRP
Quoting beell:


Too soon for me to make that leap. But the TUTT and attendant TUTT lows look to be hanging around for a while. Axis currently stretching from the western Caribbean to the NE Atlantic.

thanks
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Quoting will40:


Well SC is what the NWS out of newport NC is saying


I know. They're my home NWS.
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Quoting zebralove:
evening all could someone please post a current visual of fredex please? thanks
take a giant flashlight bizarre system
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1045. JRRP
NW

out!
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1044. will40
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Since I'm thinking it's headed for SC and you think Florida watch this be a rare Georgia storm.


Well SC is what the NWS out of newport NC is saying
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evening all could someone please post a current visual of fredex please? thanks
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Honestly if i lived on the East Coast of Florida i would be prepared for Power loss for 2-3 days.....anything beyond that would be unexpected. I'm sure most won't agree with this post but, i really don't care.....It's just my honest Opinion.


Since I'm thinking it's headed for SC and you think Florida watch this be a rare Georgia storm.
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Quoting leftovers:
okay

A


As of 9:43...poll ends at 10 for TQOTD:
A-2
B-3
C-1
D-1
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Quoting foggymyst:
Tampa..thought on Fred this evening?


Honestly if i lived on the East Coast of Florida i would be prepared for Power loss for 2-3 days.....anything beyond that would be unexpected. I'm sure most won't agree with this post but, i really don't care.....It's just my honest Opinion.
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okay

A
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StormW i think Fred might be redevelop it COC south under that blow up......as the RGB looks Freds old COC was to the NOrth of the Blow up.
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1031. beell
The thing that confuses me regarding 98L:
I spend most of my "model" time with the GFS. There is no support (imo) at the low levels for a turn to the north. If TUTT induced shear remains with 98L, then a westerly track would seem most likely.
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TQOTD (results as of 9:39 pm ET)--Poll closes at 10 pm.

A-1 B-3 C-1 D-1
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1027. Dakster
Iceman - Did you hit the random line generate button in photoshop?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10571
Quoting Grothar:
If 1953 is included I amend by answer to 18.

ALLSTAR17
Hi Grothar! Can you come to Tropics Chat?
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I know that I'm going to get flamed out for this one, but I have been noticing that the GFS has been hinting at energy coming north from the E-PAC into the Carrib.

This probably won't happen, but it is what this season has been lacking, a system in the western carribean. Certainly is toasty down there....

CFS @ 324 hrs...
!

Don't roast me gang, just an observation
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Tampa..thought on Fred this evening?
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Good Evening!
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**Including 1953***
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1019. Dakster
Quoting Leafgreen:

Serial, I guess the Atlantic was filled with hundreds of ships that would have reported big storms.

And Dakster, I didn't look up that blog, but I would also guess that this phenomenon was due to Krakatoa's massive eruption: "In the year following the eruption, average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years, and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888." quote from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa


The year without summmer... Yes,most likely.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10571
Close but no cigar.

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Quoting serialteg:


hehe... and maybe there was, but how would've they've known?

Serial, I guess the Atlantic was filled with hundreds of ships that would have reported big storms.

And Dakster, I didn't look up that blog, but I would also guess that this phenomenon was due to Krakatoa's massive eruption: "In the year following the eruption, average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years, and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888." quote from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa
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1015. Grothar
If 1953 is included I amend by answer to 18.

ALLSTAR17
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Quoting Grothar:
17 allstar


***EDIT***
Poll closes at 10. ? is including 1953.

A-1 B-2 C-1 D-1

Again....including 1953.
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1013. Grothar
17 allstar
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.