Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:06 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Allstar,

I guess B.
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Sorry, hunkerdown. (probably the last time)
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Quoting AllStar17:


Awfully cranky.
not really, you just keep posting it over and over...
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Low Level steering shows Fred should move WSW in the short term.....

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Quoting zebralove:
allstar I pick B 17


Alright. With 15 minutes until 10:30 we have:
A-3
B-4
C-3
D-1
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Quoting StormW:


Right now...slim. Have to check the steering forecast run in the a.m., see if anything changes.


Ok I'd appreciate that, bride all worried, that she may have to cancel Beach Wedding plans.

I'll look for you online tomorrow then...thanx!

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allstar I pick B 17
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Quoting tropics21:
try this link and animate may give a better picture Link


I have that bookmarked but, thanks as that sure shows how it is seperateing and sure looks like its LLC has reorganzied to the South!
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1101. gator23
Quoting TampaSpin:


As said above the trough is not pulling out as expected.....really hard to say as Fred is sorta hemed between the Bermuda High and a high located just to the West over North Florida......



thanks so gotta keep an eye on it here in S. Florida. maybe I wont have work on Tuesday
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Quoting hunkerdown:
ENOUGH ALREADY !!!!!!


Awfully cranky.
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1098. Grothar
ALLSTAR, Some of us are not that young. I don't even buy green bananas anymore! Know what I mean?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26897
Quoting hunkerdown:
ENOUGH ALREADY !!!!!!


OK!!!! Settle down.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hey Grothar! :)


Homeless - you got mail....
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Quoting gator23:

any thoughts on strength? Local Miami mets are saying South Carolina whats your thinking on steering?


As said above the trough is not pulling out as expected.....really hard to say as Fred is sorta hemed between the Bermuda High and a high located just to the West over North Florida......

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1092. skook
More tropics question of the day spam please.
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Quoting AllStar17:
ENOUGH ALREADY !!!!!!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
StormW i think Fred might be redevelop it COC south under that blow up......as the RGB looks Freds old COC was to the NOrth of the Blow up.
try this link and animate may give a better picture Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Alstar, if I was picking I'd take A. But I know I'm late.


These questions are once or twice a day (depending on my schedule)....just to give everyone a little more knowledge on the tropics.
Not late....ends at 10:30 pm :)

A-3
B-3
C-3
D-1
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1087. will40
Quoting Seasidecove:


Ok, you'd be right if they are looking all the way back to the storm being called an Invest... :-)


You was close enuff :-)
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1086. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:

How about E?
One of the above.


Chiklit, I hope you didn't do that on your SAT's??
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1085. beell
Quoting StormW:


Yea...I odn't think the turn will be as sharp either, but it's gonna start heading more WNW (290).

Off for the eve.

2 thoughts

They should relocate center of 98L to the east

For the next 12-16 hours...watch the Bahamas.


290 seems like a safe bet for now-agreed!
Have a good evening.
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Alstar, if I was picking I'd take A. But I know I'm late.
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Ending at 10:30 pm
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey lady!!!


Hey Grothar! :)
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Quoting will40:



September the 6th i think


Ok, you'd be right if they are looking all the way back to the storm being called an Invest... :-)
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Quoting StormW:


Yea...I odn't think the turn will be as sharp either, but it's gonna start heading more WNW (290).

Off for the eve.

2 thoughts

They should relocate center of 98L to the east

For the next 12-16 hours...watch the Bahamas.


Before you go...any though on the TQOTD?
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1079. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:

Evening all. From NWS Lake Charles...

ON TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CONSENSUS HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF WHAT IT WAS 24 HRS
AGO...AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR NOW AS IF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA...STALLING JUST TO OUR WEST INSTEAD.


Story of my life. Lol

and...

MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COAST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INDUCING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.


First off they need to update their marine discussion since the front won't make it that far. Secondly, I've been watching the models showing a low in W, CAR. moving into the BOC. Now I know what they were saying. :)


Hey lady!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26897
Quoting Chicklit:

How about E?
One of the above.

LOL
Well....if you had to pick one what would it be?
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1077. gator23
Quoting TampaSpin:


Honestly if i lived on the East Coast of Florida i would be prepared for Power loss for 2-3 days.....anything beyond that would be unexpected. I'm sure most won't agree with this post but, i really don't care.....It's just my honest Opinion.

any thoughts on strength? Local Miami mets are saying South Carolina whats your thinking on steering?
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Evening all. From NWS Lake Charles...

ON TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CONSENSUS HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF WHAT IT WAS 24 HRS
AGO...AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR NOW AS IF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA...STALLING JUST TO OUR WEST INSTEAD.


Story of my life. Lol

and...

MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COAST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INDUCING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.


First off they need to update their marine discussion since the front won't make it that far. Secondly, I've been watching the models showing a low in W, CAR. moving into the BOC. Now I know what they were saying. :)
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Quoting AllStar17:

How about E?
One of the above.
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TD Fred on 09/07/09
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1071. will40
Quoting zebralove:
one other question.... what date did fred or what would be fred or what is left of fred first appear on the discusions? How long have we been watching this silly storm... it seems like forever lol



September the 6th i think
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Quoting pottery:
1050, Baha.
Nicely put. And so right...
Hey, pot... DDR was looking for u in the blog earlier today....

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Quoting JLPR:


I think I will go with C xD


A-2
B-3
C-3
D-1

Keep the votes coming! (until 10:30)
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StormW -

I got a question for ya. I got a friend who is getting married this next week, and they heard on our local TV station (Gulfport, MS) weather broadcast, that Fred, needs to be watched, as it may end up in the GOM, later this week, an may turn towards the Ceneral Gulf Coast. (AL, MS & LA areas), I told them I hadn't heard of anything like that, but I would check it out for them...what's your take on this happening?

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1066. JLPR
Quoting AllStar17:
Poll is now extended UNTIL 10:30 PM

So far:
A-2
B-3
C-2
D-1


I think I will go with C xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting iceman55:
InTheCone that true


Also, would like to mention that I enjoy all the graphics that you post, good stuff... thanks!
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one other question.... what date did fred or what would be fred or what is left of fred first appear on the discusions? How long have we been watching this silly storm... it seems like forever lol
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1063. beell
Quoting StormW:


Go here...look at near 25N;55W...watch how the flow turns to the NW...That's where there is a weakness right now.

IR2 LOOP


Been watching that, Storm. Caused by the trough that split "fred" in half yesterday and weakened the NW corner of the ridge. Also pretty good straight easterly steering S of 20N on this same loop. May miss it. The agressive turn by the model consensus seems a might overdone on this one.


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Poll is now extended UNTIL 10:30 PM

So far:
A-2
B-3
C-2
D-1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.