Disturbance 98L probably no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, and has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity overnight. This morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) shows a complete, circular wind pattern around the low pressure center of 98L, but top winds were only 25 mph. Wind shear is moderate, about 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

The global computer models predict differing amounts of wind shear in the path of 98L as it moves west-northwest at 10 mph over the next three days. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L, while the NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF do. The models that do develop 98L predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. Given the moderate or higher wind shear in 98L's path, and dry air to the northwest, the system should develop only slowly. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away, near 25N 66W, about 900 miles east of Florida. Wind shear is 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and there is very dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and it will have a tough time regenerating with so much dry air and wind shear. The remains of Fred should move over Florida Monday night or Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning QuickSCAT image of the Atlantic, showing the well-defined surface circulation of disturbance 98L. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

One year anniversary of Hurricane Ike
I've been focusing this week on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, but we also passed the one year anniversary of Hurricane Ike. Many areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast affected by Ike have fully recovered, but recovery efforts will still take many more years in other areas. In Galveston, which suffered $3.2 billion in damage, 75% of the businesses have reopened, and 95% of the population has returned. Boston.com has posted a very nice series of clickable images that show before and after scenes of some of the areas that have recovered from Hurricane Ike.

Ike washed away huge sections of beach and dunes that helped protect the Texas coast from more serious damage, and this week the state legislature approved $135 million in funds to help replace these critical natural protection systems. The restored beaches will probably last ten years, barring another strike by a hurricane of Ike's stature. Texas considers two-thirds of its 367-mile shoreline to be critically eroding, which it defines as a historical rate of more than 2 feet a year. Much of this erosion can be blamed on sea level rise. Global sea level rose seven inches over the past century, and is expected to rise at least that much over the coming century.


Figure 2. Villagers in Haiti plant one of their "Million Tree Campaign" trees. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Hurricane relief donations
There hasn't been a need for new hurricane-related disaster relief efforts this year, in stark contrast to 2008. However, the charities we rely on to provide disaster relief still require funds to operate in quiet years, and I encourage you to consider a donation at this time to one of my two favorite disaster relief charities. Portlight.org, which was very effective at helping out isolated, under-served communities in the wake of Hurricane Ike, is committed to raising $12,000 to purchase and outfit a mobile kitchen. This kitchen will be capable of feeding up to 2,000 people two hot meals per day in post-disaster situations. The Lambi Fund of Haiti has launched its "Million Tree Campaign", which aims to use local labor to plant a million trees over the next three years along severely deforested slopes in Haiti. Both of these charities wrote to me several times last year about the stunning generosity readers of this blog showed with their donations. Thanks!

Twenty years ago today
As Hurricane Hugo approached the U.S. Virgin Islands in the early morning hours of September 18, 1989, the storm slowed down to 10 mph. The slower speed allowed Hugo to punish the island of St. Croix with the worst beating of any location along the hurricane's destructive path. At 2am local time on September 18, 1989, Hurricane Hugo's eyewall struck St. Croix, bringing incredibly ferocious Category 4 winds, sustained at 140 mph. The hurricane's gusts were remarkably violent, and many residents witnessed tornado-like vorticies barreling across the island as the hurricane raged about them. A storm surge of 2 - 3 feet, topped by battering waves 20 - 23 feet high, assaulted the coast, adding to the destruction. Wunderground member Mike Steers wrote me to describe his experience on St. Croix: "Hugo was incredible. Many vortexes came in that night. The roar and intensity of the winds that night were incredible. When the eyewall came over, we were forced to take refuge in the bathroom as the rest of the house came apart. The pressure was so low outside the house that all of the water was sucked out of the toilet and an air draft was created through the toilet. Just when I thought it was as bad as it would get, the intensity of it all dialed up even higher. Dozens and dozens of times, my ears would violently pop due to rapid pressure changes. The next morning, of course, the devastation was unbelievable. In my front yard was a 18-foot boat with an outboard on it, that had been picked up from a marina two miles away. I had lost my house, and job, the Seaplane company I was a pilot for. After a couple months, I had to leave everything behind. In some respects, after 20 years, there an many aspects of the society that have yet to recover". Two people were killed on St. Croix, 80 injured, and 90% of the buildings were damaged or destroyed. Damage estimates for St. Croix were astronomical, over $1 billion, and the island's entire infrastructure was virtually wiped out. Six weeks after the hurricane, only 25% of the public roads had been cleared, and only 25% of the island had power.


Figure 3. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 18, 1989. Note the lack of cloud cover on the hurricane's southwest side, indicating that strong upper-level winds from the southwest were likely creating wind shear, weakening the storm. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

As Hugo departed St. Croix, strong upper-level winds from the southwest created wind shear that weakened the storm to a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. The upper level winds also caused Hugo to accelerate to 15 mph and turn more northwest. The eye passed over Puerto Rico's Vieques Island at 8am and over Fajardo on the extreme northeastern tip of Puerto Rico at 9am. On Culebra Island, an island twelve miles east of Fajardo, a gust to 170 mph was recorded by the ship Night Cap in the main harbor. The south-facing harbor received sustained southerly winds in excess of 120 mph for several hours as Hugo roared by to the south. The resulting wave "set-up" created a storm surge in excess of 13 feet in the supposedly hurricane-proof harbor. A large portion of the Caribbean's charter boat fleet, some 200 boats, was sheltering in Culebra's harbor, and 136 of these boats were badly damaged or sunk. Over 80% of the wooden structures on both Culebra and Vieques were destroyed.


Figure 4. Damage on St. Croix (two top photos), Culebra Island (bottom right), and Puerto Rico's Roosevelt Roads Navy Base (bottom left), after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Along the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico, waves up to ten feet high riding on top of a 3 - 4 foot storm surge caused severe coastal flooding of low-lying areas. Hugo's winds tore into Puerto Rico's El Yunque rainforest, downing thousands of trees. The agricultural sector was devastated, with nearly all of the island's banana and coffee crops wiped out. Twelve deaths in Puerto Rico were attributed to Hugo, six of which occurred in the southern city of Guayama where some residents were electrocuted by downed power lines. Nearly 28,000 people were left homeless by the storm, and damage to the island exceeded $1 billion.

Storm chaser Michael Laca was at Luquillo Beach on the northeast shore of Puerto Rico, and has posted a remarkable 28-minute video on YouTube of Hurricane Hugo footage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Fred is beginning to look like a major league playa. I've been watching storms for a long time, and can't remember one that I thought was dead so many times.

I think they should skip the normal list of names this year and choose Lazarus.



Lazarus Long?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Fred seems be finding a new channel of moisture to his west, and there is an anticyclone building over the top of him. I tend to agree that significant strengthening is unlikely at his current rate of movement, but if he stalls even briefly near the Gulf Stream with relatively low shear, all bets are off.
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The chances of Fred regenerating into a tropical cyclone are increasing as it takes advantage of the favorable conditions. Wind shear has slackened to 5-10kts. A very weak upper level anticyclonic flow is extended in near Bahamas; this is helping it sustain itself. If Fred continues to increase its convection and organization, it might generate its own ridge aloft.
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1488. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1487. IKE
Quoting markymark1973:
Guess we will have to find out if all the models are correct with 98L. All of them say going with the fishies. Fred is going to pop in 36-48hrs and probably become a decent TS. The center of Fred has gained more latitude. I wouldn't be too concerned with Fred getting into the GOM just yet. This is from Miami...LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
LATEST MODELS RUN (GFS AND EMCWF) AS TO THE WAY THERE ARE HANDLING
THE REMNANTS OF FRED. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOT ONLY SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE, BUT ALSO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT TAKING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS.


Key West is saying the opposite.....

"MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE VARIOUS MODEL RUNS...00Z
NAM...00Z GFS...AND 00Z ECMWF BRING EITHER AN INVERTED TROUGH OR A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE(ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF FRED) ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT."....


And Melbourne,FL....

"INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANT WAVE FROM FRED) IS FORECAST TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AROUND TUE."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Guess we will have to find out if all the models are correct with 98L. All of them say going with the fishies. Fred is going to pop in 36-48hrs and probably become a decent TS. The center of Fred has gained more latitude. I wouldn't be too concerned with Fred getting into the GOM just yet. This is from Miami...LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
LATEST MODELS RUN (GFS AND EMCWF) AS TO THE WAY THERE ARE HANDLING
THE REMNANTS OF FRED. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOT ONLY SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE, BUT ALSO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT TAKING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS.
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Fred is beginning to look like a major league playa. I've been watching storms for a long time, and can't remember one that I thought was dead so many times.

I think they should skip the normal list of names this year and choose Lazarus.

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Nice blowup with 98L and Fred Ex.


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1482. IKE
Accuweather take..."Last Update: 19-SEP-2009 06:00am EDT

We are watching the remnant area of low pressure left behind from what was Hurricane Fred. It is located about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and it is tracking to the west-northwest at 15 mph. The low is fighting dry air and northeast upper-level shear, which will cause this feature to produce thunderstorms that strengthen and then fall apart, mainly to the west and south of the center of circulation. Dry air and unfavorable upper-level shear will continue to limit the development of this feature through tomorrow night, but on Sunday or Monday, the shear will weaken and the low will be moving into a juicer environment, which could lead to strengthening near the Bahamas. A large surface ridge of high pressure will build to the east of the mid-Atlantic states over the weekend causing a strong pressure gradient to the north of this remnant low. This could lead to strong winds and rough surf along the Southeast coast over the weekend and early next week.

Another area we are watching is a low pressure center located about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. It is moving to the west-northwest at around 10 mph. Showers and thunderstorms are pulsing up and down near the center of circulation as this feature is also fighting dry air and unfavorable upper-level shear. The shear should lighten up over the next couple of days, but the dry air will remain in place, so development will be limited.

Considering that we are very close to the peak of hurricane season, at least according to climatology, the tropical Atlantic remains very quiet right now.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I don't think the convection is over the center per shortwave imagery
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1479. hercj
Its interesting that Katrina came from old TD 10 which meandered along for 10 days then crossed Fl and into the GOM. Not that Fred ex is Katrina but the core of this storm has been beaten to death and it is still rotating. Now the forecast is for Fred to get in the GOM.
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1478. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
"Fred's dead!!! Fred's a fish storm." Fred obviously hasn't had time to read the blog.
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1475. IKE
I think recon will be a go for today. Convection flaring up nicely close to Fred's center.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N40W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD 5 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND
44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. THE CHANCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS MEDIUM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N16W
TO 24N27W TO 19N40W TO 13N46W IS ABOUT 220 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LOW CENTER.


Does not read like they will go to TD status soon on 98L, they first will go to red, IMO.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
1473. hercj
Thanks 456. Air Force Reserve leaving Biloxi at 10.00 CDT to have a look. 500' to 1000 invest protocol. If im not mistaken this is the first look at Fred ex we have had.
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Quoting hercj:
Good morning 456. What do you think or our boy Fred ex this morning?


I will post an update on my blog this morning, but basically the system is hanging in there. The latest shear forecast show some decreasing shear but remaining above 15 knots so the upper environment appears marginal at best. SSTs are favorable but the air is marginally dry around (RH 50%). The models take it across Florida and into the GOM and I agree with them since you can see the high (and its associated cold airmass) moving SE over eastern Canada/NE USA.

It will be watched when it enters the GOM where upper conditions remain marginal. Basically its a 50/50 and Fred can go both ways. I have not been impressed thus far though.
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Damn I don't know what happened, the quikscat posted above wasn't the right one yet its what I copied, lets see if this is the right one.

Yep this is the right one.
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1470. hercj
Quoting unf97:
Good morning WU community.

Today will definitely tell us what will come about of the remnant low of ex-Fred. There was about 15-20 knots of shear over the system during the past 12-24 hours. Lookin at the IR imagery early this morning, there was a convective flare-up which appears to be removed just S-SW of the weak COC, if it is still there. This indicates that there is still a moderate amount of shear this morning. Ex-Fred is expected to gradually enter a more conducive environment during the next 24-36 hours if it can hang on today. Also, movement has been more NW during the past 12-24 hours and it has slowed in its forward motion for the moment.

An Air Force Recon plane was scheduled to fly out to investigate this system today. I was wondering if it is still a go for today?

As of right now Teal 71 is still a go.
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1469. unf97
Good morning WU community.

Today will definitely tell us what will come about of the remnant low of ex-Fred. There was about 15-20 knots of shear over the system during the past 12-24 hours. Lookin at the IR imagery early this morning, there was a convective flare-up which appears to be removed just S-SW of the weak COC, if it is still there. This indicates that there is still a moderate amount of shear this morning. Ex-Fred is expected to gradually enter a more conducive environment during the next 24-36 hours if it can hang on today. Also, movement has been more NW during the past 12-24 hours and it has slowed in its forward motion for the moment.

An Air Force Recon plane was scheduled to fly out to investigate this system today. I was wondering if it is still a go for today?

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1468. hercj
Good morning 456. What do you think or our boy Fred ex this morning?
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Quikscat of 98L LLC around 13.5N/42W in my estimation, I personally think that by 8am this could straight to TD status, if not definitely with an upgrade if the trend continues, jmo.


we will have to wait until 11 but the renumbering file, if any, will come out much sooner.
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Quikscat of 98L LLC around 13.5N/42W in my estimation, I personally think that by 8am this could straight to TD status, if not definitely with an upgrade if the trend continues, jmo.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Good Morning Weather456,

I knew I would find you here, and I cannot seem to find the answer online. Why cannot geostationary or polar orbiting satellites collide with each other? Where does the name polar orbiting come from and why do they have large swaths?

Thanks


The answer is in their name "geostationary". They are stationary satellites that move in sync with the earth's rotation so GOES-12 at 70W will never meet MTSAT at 0E or GMS at 135W.

Polar orbiting satellites however don't move in sync with the earth's orbit. Interestingly as the satellite makes 1 trip around the globe, the earth rotates some and by the next time they come around, they have missed an area, thats why we get the blank swaths for QuikSCAT, TRMM, etc. However, becuz the earth is wider at the Equator and narrower at the poles, the blank swaths are largest at the equator and smallest north and south of 40 degrees*. In fact, you can guarantee a pass of any feature north of such latitude. Probably hence their name polar orbiting.

They have synchronized orbits in way that prevents them from colliding with each other.


*For example, the distance, Lima, Peru moves in an hour is greater than Nuuk, Greenland.
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1463. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The new QS of 98L came out and supports a 25 or 30 knot depression
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1460. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good Morning, if this continues, 98L could become a depression today or on Sunday. If this occurs, 98L would join Ana, Bill and Fred as cape Verde systems - a rather active cape Verde season, considering the average is 1 per year.

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98L

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Even this is showing some kind of trough/wav in the BOC. Don't know whats up with that. But a lot of models show something there as well. With Fred and 98L this area should be watched later in the week. Well y'all have a good day/night. :)

Link
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1456. JLPR


98Ls area is being analyzed now
but im sleepy so I will wait till tomorrow to see what I find
goodnight or good morning lol
xD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
LATEST MODELS RUN (GFS AND EMCWF) AS TO THE WAY THERE ARE HANDLING
THE REMNANTS OF FRED. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOT ONLY SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE, BUT ALSO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT TAKING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. NEVERTHELESS, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA, BUT SOMEWHAT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS (50%) ON TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF "FRED"
REMNANTS MOVE THROUGH. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE WILL RETURN
TO NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS (SCT POPS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING COASTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD AND AN EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COULD BE IN STORED FOR FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FORCING A
FRONT DOWN TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA, SO WL STICK
WITH CLIMO THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

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1454. JLPR
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't think that 25-30 kt sustained surface winds have to be located within a specific quadrant in order for a system to be called a tropical cyclone. It just needs a closed surface circulation and persistent organized convection, and to be detached from a frontal zone.

Now, if you mean that there needs to be more westerly winds on the south side, then I agree. There is a noticeable lack of westerly winds within 100 miles of the south side of the center, with a large area of southwesterly winds noted.


yep if all quadrants needed to have the sames winds then we wouldn't have had Erika XD
the quickscat pass is old
a new one should be coming in a little while,
now that one I wanna see
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Quoting JLPR:


lol dude we need a good LLC with TD winds convection for it to be a TD
quickscat is great for knowing how defined the LLC is and how strong the winds are,
if quickscat doesn't say yep its a TD xD, we don't have one then

and how dare you say if I hadn't look at sat in 8hrs what do you think im doing here all day? XD

lastest quickscat which shows a tight LLC

still needs stronger winds in the south side, but it sure looks good to me xD


I don't think that 25-30 kt sustained surface winds have to be located within a specific quadrant in order for a system to be called a tropical cyclone. It just needs a closed surface circulation and persistent organized convection, and to be detached from a frontal zone.

Now, if you mean that there needs to be more westerly winds on the south side, then I agree. There is a noticeable lack of westerly winds within 100 miles of the south side of the center, with a large area of southwesterly winds noted.
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1452. JLPR
Quoting centex:
proves my point, should be red, has llc.


yep I said earlier red on 2am or 8am
if this isn't red by 8am or a TD I will eat crow =P

also the LLC has existed since it came off Africa quite a few days ago
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1451. centex
Quoting JLPR:


lol dude we need a good LLC with TD winds convection for it to be a TD
quickscat is great for knowing how defined the LLC is and how strong the winds are,
if quickscat doesn't say yep its a TD xD, we don't have one then

and how dare you say if I hadn't look at sat in 8hrs what do you think im doing here all day? XD

lastest quickscat which shows a tight LLC

still needs stronger winds in the south side, but it sure looks good to me xD
proves my point, should be red, has llc.
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1450. JLPR
Quoting centex:
? have you looked at sat for last 8 hours? It's already 98L 30-50 TD in 48 hrs, I'm only suggesting models too N and TD only hours away. about to put head to pillow.


lol dude we need a good LLC with TD winds convection for it to be a TD
quickscat is great for knowing how defined the LLC is and how strong the winds are,
if quickscat doesn't say yep its a TD xD, we don't have one then

and how dare you say if I hadn't look at sat in 8hrs what do you think im doing here all day? XD

lastest quickscat which shows a tight LLC

still needs stronger winds in the south side, but it sure looks good to me xD
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Quoting JLPR:
what TAFB thinks is worrying =S




CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND A TROPICAL LOW NEAR 13N42W HAS PRODUCED A BROAD AREA OF
20-25 KT WINDS PER A 2116 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT AND
SUBSEQUENT 0018 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS WERE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE
IN A MIX OF SE AND NE SWELLS IN THIS FETCH. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF FRED...BUT WITH THE
NELY SWELL MOVING INTO THE ATLC WATERS AND PASSAGES OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AS FOR THE TROPICAL LOW...THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN ANY EVENT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD ZONE OF
20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE N...AND LIKELY
25-30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF SO OF THE N SEMICIRCLE...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THE REMNANTS
OF FRED AND RESULTANT WEAK RIDGING N OF THE AREA HAVE
INTERRUPTED THE NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN LEAVING 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PER A 0158
UTC ASCAT PASS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...FRESH TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE SRN CARIBBEAN SUN
THROUGH WED
WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO
NEAR 8 FT...WHILE THE REST OF THE BASIN IS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS
5 FT OR LESS.

Looks like thyre expecting a ridge.

Link
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This is crazy! Intensity models have Fred becoming Fred before 98L becoming Grace....


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Quoting TampaSpin:
The Mid Level Low in the Caribbean is starting fire thunderstorms on the center.......a strong sign its trying to work its way to the surface.....if this tracks toward the GOM the same time Fred gets there this will become very interesting.......


Yeah, I think you're right about this being mid level now. It's pretty obvious, the way the convection is beginning to fire around the entire inner circumference of the system. Is it starting to drift north?
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1446. centex
Quoting JLPR:


quickscat =P but its still hours away from getting to 98L
? have you looked at sat for last 8 hours? It's already 98L 30-50 TD in 48 hrs, I'm only suggesting models too N and TD only hours away. about to put head to pillow.
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1445. JLPR
im thinking the center is between the two areas of convection or under the area of convection in the west side

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1444. JLPR
Also another interesting area NE of the CV islands

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1443. JLPR
Quoting centex:
I challenge for evidince 98L not td. NHC status does not count.


quickscat =P but its still hours away from getting to 98L
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1442. centex
I challenge for evidince 98L not td. NHC status does not count.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.