Disturbance 98L probably no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, and has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity overnight. This morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) shows a complete, circular wind pattern around the low pressure center of 98L, but top winds were only 25 mph. Wind shear is moderate, about 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

The global computer models predict differing amounts of wind shear in the path of 98L as it moves west-northwest at 10 mph over the next three days. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L, while the NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF do. The models that do develop 98L predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. Given the moderate or higher wind shear in 98L's path, and dry air to the northwest, the system should develop only slowly. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away, near 25N 66W, about 900 miles east of Florida. Wind shear is 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and there is very dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and it will have a tough time regenerating with so much dry air and wind shear. The remains of Fred should move over Florida Monday night or Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning QuickSCAT image of the Atlantic, showing the well-defined surface circulation of disturbance 98L. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

One year anniversary of Hurricane Ike
I've been focusing this week on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, but we also passed the one year anniversary of Hurricane Ike. Many areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast affected by Ike have fully recovered, but recovery efforts will still take many more years in other areas. In Galveston, which suffered $3.2 billion in damage, 75% of the businesses have reopened, and 95% of the population has returned. Boston.com has posted a very nice series of clickable images that show before and after scenes of some of the areas that have recovered from Hurricane Ike.

Ike washed away huge sections of beach and dunes that helped protect the Texas coast from more serious damage, and this week the state legislature approved $135 million in funds to help replace these critical natural protection systems. The restored beaches will probably last ten years, barring another strike by a hurricane of Ike's stature. Texas considers two-thirds of its 367-mile shoreline to be critically eroding, which it defines as a historical rate of more than 2 feet a year. Much of this erosion can be blamed on sea level rise. Global sea level rose seven inches over the past century, and is expected to rise at least that much over the coming century.


Figure 2. Villagers in Haiti plant one of their "Million Tree Campaign" trees. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Hurricane relief donations
There hasn't been a need for new hurricane-related disaster relief efforts this year, in stark contrast to 2008. However, the charities we rely on to provide disaster relief still require funds to operate in quiet years, and I encourage you to consider a donation at this time to one of my two favorite disaster relief charities. Portlight.org, which was very effective at helping out isolated, under-served communities in the wake of Hurricane Ike, is committed to raising $12,000 to purchase and outfit a mobile kitchen. This kitchen will be capable of feeding up to 2,000 people two hot meals per day in post-disaster situations. The Lambi Fund of Haiti has launched its "Million Tree Campaign", which aims to use local labor to plant a million trees over the next three years along severely deforested slopes in Haiti. Both of these charities wrote to me several times last year about the stunning generosity readers of this blog showed with their donations. Thanks!

Twenty years ago today
As Hurricane Hugo approached the U.S. Virgin Islands in the early morning hours of September 18, 1989, the storm slowed down to 10 mph. The slower speed allowed Hugo to punish the island of St. Croix with the worst beating of any location along the hurricane's destructive path. At 2am local time on September 18, 1989, Hurricane Hugo's eyewall struck St. Croix, bringing incredibly ferocious Category 4 winds, sustained at 140 mph. The hurricane's gusts were remarkably violent, and many residents witnessed tornado-like vorticies barreling across the island as the hurricane raged about them. A storm surge of 2 - 3 feet, topped by battering waves 20 - 23 feet high, assaulted the coast, adding to the destruction. Wunderground member Mike Steers wrote me to describe his experience on St. Croix: "Hugo was incredible. Many vortexes came in that night. The roar and intensity of the winds that night were incredible. When the eyewall came over, we were forced to take refuge in the bathroom as the rest of the house came apart. The pressure was so low outside the house that all of the water was sucked out of the toilet and an air draft was created through the toilet. Just when I thought it was as bad as it would get, the intensity of it all dialed up even higher. Dozens and dozens of times, my ears would violently pop due to rapid pressure changes. The next morning, of course, the devastation was unbelievable. In my front yard was a 18-foot boat with an outboard on it, that had been picked up from a marina two miles away. I had lost my house, and job, the Seaplane company I was a pilot for. After a couple months, I had to leave everything behind. In some respects, after 20 years, there an many aspects of the society that have yet to recover". Two people were killed on St. Croix, 80 injured, and 90% of the buildings were damaged or destroyed. Damage estimates for St. Croix were astronomical, over $1 billion, and the island's entire infrastructure was virtually wiped out. Six weeks after the hurricane, only 25% of the public roads had been cleared, and only 25% of the island had power.


Figure 3. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 18, 1989. Note the lack of cloud cover on the hurricane's southwest side, indicating that strong upper-level winds from the southwest were likely creating wind shear, weakening the storm. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

As Hugo departed St. Croix, strong upper-level winds from the southwest created wind shear that weakened the storm to a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. The upper level winds also caused Hugo to accelerate to 15 mph and turn more northwest. The eye passed over Puerto Rico's Vieques Island at 8am and over Fajardo on the extreme northeastern tip of Puerto Rico at 9am. On Culebra Island, an island twelve miles east of Fajardo, a gust to 170 mph was recorded by the ship Night Cap in the main harbor. The south-facing harbor received sustained southerly winds in excess of 120 mph for several hours as Hugo roared by to the south. The resulting wave "set-up" created a storm surge in excess of 13 feet in the supposedly hurricane-proof harbor. A large portion of the Caribbean's charter boat fleet, some 200 boats, was sheltering in Culebra's harbor, and 136 of these boats were badly damaged or sunk. Over 80% of the wooden structures on both Culebra and Vieques were destroyed.


Figure 4. Damage on St. Croix (two top photos), Culebra Island (bottom right), and Puerto Rico's Roosevelt Roads Navy Base (bottom left), after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Along the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico, waves up to ten feet high riding on top of a 3 - 4 foot storm surge caused severe coastal flooding of low-lying areas. Hugo's winds tore into Puerto Rico's El Yunque rainforest, downing thousands of trees. The agricultural sector was devastated, with nearly all of the island's banana and coffee crops wiped out. Twelve deaths in Puerto Rico were attributed to Hugo, six of which occurred in the southern city of Guayama where some residents were electrocuted by downed power lines. Nearly 28,000 people were left homeless by the storm, and damage to the island exceeded $1 billion.

Storm chaser Michael Laca was at Luquillo Beach on the northeast shore of Puerto Rico, and has posted a remarkable 28-minute video on YouTube of Hurricane Hugo footage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Aqui estoy, buenos dias.


Im confused all your ever post is spanish now, why not save us the time going through your post and dont post that stuff.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


El Nino is moderate at best, by the definition

I unlike you, do know what i am looking at

Yeah, this hasn't moved much in the last 2 months and is hardly better than neutral conditions.

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Sorry if it's already been mentioned, but Navy has Fred back up.

Link
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


jeff, it does exist, they are running models and keeping track of the remnants of Fred again

Maybe YOU should check what is going on before jumping on someone.
I checked the NHC's website, it was not on there as of 7am this morning.
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See, presslord, I told you!
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Quoting tacoman:
i can guarantee and im saying this right now the flight for dreaded looking fred will be POSTPONED...no flight into a sick looking system like fred..


I'm still waiting on your ENSO/El Nino proof...a link to show that the El Nino is strengthening, if you would
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Quoting atmoaggie:

And they also cancel a lot of scheduled flights into invests. (which FredEx essentially is)


Reason I made sure to include "scheduled".
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10883
"Fred" will likely prove to be the most interesting tropical system this season. Instead of dead--he may have just been playing rope-a-dope since he has been in a heavy weight fight all the way across the Atlantic. He has taken on all challengers with a few knock downs but no knock outs yet. His uphill battle is over now as he has hit the top and soon will start a downhill roll. The worst conditions he will face from now till landfall are occurring now. The question is--To what degree will he take advantage of the improving environment? He has the chance to be a real champion. Will he go the distance? He is a likely threat to the SE Coast in this old long retired forecasters opinion.
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Quoting Patrap:
"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when my fear is gone I will turn and face fear's path, and only I will remain."


Ahhh, the Bene Gesserit litany!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


First flight is scheduled for 2PM tomorrow afternoon as an invest flight. Second flight is 2AM Sunday morning as a named system. Yes, they fly into "yellow" areas frequently.

And they also cancel a lot of scheduled flights into invests. (which FredEx essentially is)
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Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Are they flying into xFreddy today? Do they usually fly into yellow circles?


First flight is scheduled for 2PM tomorrow afternoon as an invest flight. Second flight is 2AM Sunday morning as a named system. Yes, they fly into "yellow" areas frequently.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10883
#153
Sorry Jeffs, but you can't deny freedom of speech. From An American President:
"America isn't easy. America is advanced citizenship. You've gotta want it bad, 'cause it's gonna put up a fight. It's gonna say, "You want free speech? Let's see you acknowledge a man whose words make your blood boil, who's standing center stage and advocating at the top of his lungs that which you would spend a lifetime opposing at the top of yours." You want to claim this land as the land of the free? Then the symbol of your country cannot just be a flag. The symbol also has to be one of its citizens exercising his right to burn that flag in protest. Now show me that, defend that, celebrate that in your classrooms.

Then you can stand up and sing about the land of the free."


Now I really gotta go...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting Floodman:


Actually Katrina was a moderate CAT1 at landfall...
Amazing how people forget the details to fit their scenario.
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98L 06 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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Quoting dolphingalrules:
katrina came right thru hollywood at a weak ts went accross fla went to the gulf.and then history. we had no electric for 2 days.


Actually Katrina was a moderate CAT1 at landfall...
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A little late this morning, but thanks for the update and information on HUGO and IKE.
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Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Are they flying into xFreddy today? Do they usually fly into yellow circles?


Tomorrow,1500 Z Hour if they go as planned.
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Quoting presslord:
Speakin' o' buzzkill...Where's JFVWS?


Shhhhhh...move slowly, and let's get as far away from THAT post as we can...

Talk of the Devil, and he’s presently at your elbow
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170. IKE
Quoting IKE:
D. 26.0N 70.8W

D. 26.8N 72.0W

On a WNW heading...takes WS/JFV out of the equation.


If those coordinates verify and it's heading WNW it takes the Bahamas out of the equation too.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting caneluver:
Katrina was in the same area also and was expected to remain weak.
katrina came right thru hollywood at a weak ts went accross fla went to the gulf.and then history. we had no electric for 2 days.
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anyway bbs
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"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when my fear is gone I will turn and face fear's path, and only I will remain."
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


El Nino is moderate at best, by the definition

I unlike you, do know what i am looking at


One could think he is StormTop or Stormno....
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Are they flying into xFreddy today? Do they usually fly into yellow circles?
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163. IKE
D. 26.0N 70.8W

D. 26.8N 72.0W

On a WNW heading...takes WS/JFV out of the equation.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Seastep:


So, there running models on it why?


Conditions are set in the Bahamas. Low wind shear and warm gulf stream waters. Once 07L moves in that, there's a decent chance of regeneration. I think this is why models have started running on it (again). Also it's looking better today.
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Quoting Floodman:


Proof, give me proof! The last I looked this El Nino was still moderate and NOT strengthening...the bulk of the warm water for the flow is in the central PAC and not off the coast of Chile, which makes for a weak to moderate El Nino...


Exactly floodman, I am starting to get tired of people speaking up for the sake of starting an argument when they have very little facts, no facts or misread the facts to try and make their case.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Great. Now you've opened the door for (gulp) bad poetry. Good thing I'm off to work and won't have to endure the pain. Good luck all, I'll catch you on the flip...


even I wouldn't have the audacity to recite Vogon poetry
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Jeez, anybody looking at the blowup of convection on "ex-Fred" late this morning?

Sorry, but I lived through Frederic, the "born-again Hurricane". I think all variants of "Fred/Frederic/Frederick" need to be retired from the vocab!

If "ex-Fred" does make up, is he likely to be snatched up north instead of coming to Florida?
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Quoting tacoman:
burn i dont no what information you are looking at but i suggest you check it again this elnino has continued to get stronger as the season went on ..where you think all the shear is coming from in the caribbean and gom...this elnino will cause major ice storms in the south this winter..


El Nino is moderate at best, by the definition

I unlike you, do know what i am looking at
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW




A HH Pod ,..that'll scare um into submission
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Speakin' o' buzzkill...Where's JFVWS?
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154. IKE
145...you're going to get banned for that.

Actually you said the season was over with a few days ago and that you wouldn't be back on here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
digging back a bit...

54.

Do you happen to be a US Citizen? I'm just wondering since you seem to have a pretty serious issue with our government. Speaking of that, have you been to another country lately, especially an impoverished one? You might want to check it out, since if you think its bad here... once you are in another country that doesn't have the freedoms or benefits that we have here, you will for sure be singing a different tune. We are lucky to have all the freedoms and rights that we do here. There are millions of people who would literally kill to have even a portion of our rights and freedoms. Don't just slam our country or government if you disgree with it. If you don't like it, feel free to move to another country. We will see you back in a few years.
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Quoting tacoman:
burn i dont no what information you are looking at but i suggest you check it again this elnino has continued to get stronger as the season went on ..where you think all the shear is coming from in the caribbean and gom...this elnino will cause major ice storms in the south this winter..


Proof, give me proof! The last I looked this El Nino was still moderate and NOT strengthening...the bulk of the warm water for the flow is in the central PAC and not off the coast of Chile, which makes for a weak to moderate El Nino...
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Quoting divdog:
Very well put .. pls take note fred upcasters.


So, they're running models on it why?
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Quoting jeffs713:
129.

Actually, Andrew was a TS.

Fred doesn't really exist right now, since the remnant swirl that was Fred 3 days ago isn't named, numbered, or even designated an remnant low.

Please stop mixing up your fantasy world and the real world... it gives the rest of us a headache.


jeff, it does exist, they are running models and keeping track of the remnants of Fred again

Maybe YOU should check what is going on before jumping on someone.
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Quoting Floodman:


As long as it's not the Vogons...LOL


Great. Now you've opened the door for (gulp) bad poetry. Good thing I'm off to work and won't have to endure the pain. Good luck all, I'll catch you on the flip...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 18 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0107A INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.0N 70.8W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A FRED
C. 20/0200Z
D. 26.8N 72.0W
E. 20/0400Z TO 20/0700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10883
You can see the center is clearly exposed lol

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Quoting jeffs713:
129.

Actually, Andrew was a TS.

Fred doesn't really exist right now, since the remnant swirl that was Fred 3 days ago isn't named, numbered, or even designated an remnant low.

Please stop mixing up your fantasy world and the real world... it gives the rest of us a headache.


??

DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090918 1200 UTC

Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10883
Quoting jeffs713:
129.

Actually, Andrew was a TS.

Fred doesn't really exist right now, since the remnant swirl that was Fred 3 days ago isn't named, numbered, or even designated an remnant low.

Please stop mixing up your fantasy world and the real world... it gives the rest of us a headache.
Very well put .. pls take note fred upcasters.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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