Disturbance 98L probably no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, and has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity overnight. This morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) shows a complete, circular wind pattern around the low pressure center of 98L, but top winds were only 25 mph. Wind shear is moderate, about 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

The global computer models predict differing amounts of wind shear in the path of 98L as it moves west-northwest at 10 mph over the next three days. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L, while the NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF do. The models that do develop 98L predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. Given the moderate or higher wind shear in 98L's path, and dry air to the northwest, the system should develop only slowly. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away, near 25N 66W, about 900 miles east of Florida. Wind shear is 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and there is very dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and it will have a tough time regenerating with so much dry air and wind shear. The remains of Fred should move over Florida Monday night or Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning QuickSCAT image of the Atlantic, showing the well-defined surface circulation of disturbance 98L. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

One year anniversary of Hurricane Ike
I've been focusing this week on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, but we also passed the one year anniversary of Hurricane Ike. Many areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast affected by Ike have fully recovered, but recovery efforts will still take many more years in other areas. In Galveston, which suffered $3.2 billion in damage, 75% of the businesses have reopened, and 95% of the population has returned. Boston.com has posted a very nice series of clickable images that show before and after scenes of some of the areas that have recovered from Hurricane Ike.

Ike washed away huge sections of beach and dunes that helped protect the Texas coast from more serious damage, and this week the state legislature approved $135 million in funds to help replace these critical natural protection systems. The restored beaches will probably last ten years, barring another strike by a hurricane of Ike's stature. Texas considers two-thirds of its 367-mile shoreline to be critically eroding, which it defines as a historical rate of more than 2 feet a year. Much of this erosion can be blamed on sea level rise. Global sea level rose seven inches over the past century, and is expected to rise at least that much over the coming century.


Figure 2. Villagers in Haiti plant one of their "Million Tree Campaign" trees. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Hurricane relief donations
There hasn't been a need for new hurricane-related disaster relief efforts this year, in stark contrast to 2008. However, the charities we rely on to provide disaster relief still require funds to operate in quiet years, and I encourage you to consider a donation at this time to one of my two favorite disaster relief charities. Portlight.org, which was very effective at helping out isolated, under-served communities in the wake of Hurricane Ike, is committed to raising $12,000 to purchase and outfit a mobile kitchen. This kitchen will be capable of feeding up to 2,000 people two hot meals per day in post-disaster situations. The Lambi Fund of Haiti has launched its "Million Tree Campaign", which aims to use local labor to plant a million trees over the next three years along severely deforested slopes in Haiti. Both of these charities wrote to me several times last year about the stunning generosity readers of this blog showed with their donations. Thanks!

Twenty years ago today
As Hurricane Hugo approached the U.S. Virgin Islands in the early morning hours of September 18, 1989, the storm slowed down to 10 mph. The slower speed allowed Hugo to punish the island of St. Croix with the worst beating of any location along the hurricane's destructive path. At 2am local time on September 18, 1989, Hurricane Hugo's eyewall struck St. Croix, bringing incredibly ferocious Category 4 winds, sustained at 140 mph. The hurricane's gusts were remarkably violent, and many residents witnessed tornado-like vorticies barreling across the island as the hurricane raged about them. A storm surge of 2 - 3 feet, topped by battering waves 20 - 23 feet high, assaulted the coast, adding to the destruction. Wunderground member Mike Steers wrote me to describe his experience on St. Croix: "Hugo was incredible. Many vortexes came in that night. The roar and intensity of the winds that night were incredible. When the eyewall came over, we were forced to take refuge in the bathroom as the rest of the house came apart. The pressure was so low outside the house that all of the water was sucked out of the toilet and an air draft was created through the toilet. Just when I thought it was as bad as it would get, the intensity of it all dialed up even higher. Dozens and dozens of times, my ears would violently pop due to rapid pressure changes. The next morning, of course, the devastation was unbelievable. In my front yard was a 18-foot boat with an outboard on it, that had been picked up from a marina two miles away. I had lost my house, and job, the Seaplane company I was a pilot for. After a couple months, I had to leave everything behind. In some respects, after 20 years, there an many aspects of the society that have yet to recover". Two people were killed on St. Croix, 80 injured, and 90% of the buildings were damaged or destroyed. Damage estimates for St. Croix were astronomical, over $1 billion, and the island's entire infrastructure was virtually wiped out. Six weeks after the hurricane, only 25% of the public roads had been cleared, and only 25% of the island had power.


Figure 3. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 18, 1989. Note the lack of cloud cover on the hurricane's southwest side, indicating that strong upper-level winds from the southwest were likely creating wind shear, weakening the storm. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

As Hugo departed St. Croix, strong upper-level winds from the southwest created wind shear that weakened the storm to a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. The upper level winds also caused Hugo to accelerate to 15 mph and turn more northwest. The eye passed over Puerto Rico's Vieques Island at 8am and over Fajardo on the extreme northeastern tip of Puerto Rico at 9am. On Culebra Island, an island twelve miles east of Fajardo, a gust to 170 mph was recorded by the ship Night Cap in the main harbor. The south-facing harbor received sustained southerly winds in excess of 120 mph for several hours as Hugo roared by to the south. The resulting wave "set-up" created a storm surge in excess of 13 feet in the supposedly hurricane-proof harbor. A large portion of the Caribbean's charter boat fleet, some 200 boats, was sheltering in Culebra's harbor, and 136 of these boats were badly damaged or sunk. Over 80% of the wooden structures on both Culebra and Vieques were destroyed.


Figure 4. Damage on St. Croix (two top photos), Culebra Island (bottom right), and Puerto Rico's Roosevelt Roads Navy Base (bottom left), after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Along the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico, waves up to ten feet high riding on top of a 3 - 4 foot storm surge caused severe coastal flooding of low-lying areas. Hugo's winds tore into Puerto Rico's El Yunque rainforest, downing thousands of trees. The agricultural sector was devastated, with nearly all of the island's banana and coffee crops wiped out. Twelve deaths in Puerto Rico were attributed to Hugo, six of which occurred in the southern city of Guayama where some residents were electrocuted by downed power lines. Nearly 28,000 people were left homeless by the storm, and damage to the island exceeded $1 billion.

Storm chaser Michael Laca was at Luquillo Beach on the northeast shore of Puerto Rico, and has posted a remarkable 28-minute video on YouTube of Hurricane Hugo footage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


No matter how may prefaces one uses, statements are always open to misunderstanding. Ever been on a debate team? I think it is why so many people are reluctant to make a statement, for fear of ridicule and misjudgment. Just keep blogging!! You're doing OK.



Well said!

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441. IKE
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL SUPPORT
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




(1)Crow taken out of freezer....check.
(2)Getting A1 Sauce at Wal-Mart this afternoon...check.
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NHC still calling for a WNW movement
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439. JRRP
out...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5788
Well... at least HWRF didn't went "boom" on this one... and keeps Fred's remnants just like GFDL and about the same track as well.
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Quoting alaina1085:


Im female and even ill agree with that! LOL.


LOL
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL SUPPORT
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


you should be a motivational speaker lol


I second that, he encourages me all the time, definitely greatly appreciated
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Quoting Grothar:


No matter how may prefaces one uses, statements are always open to misunderstanding. Ever been on a debate team? I think it is why so many people are reluctant to make a statement, for fear of ridicule and misjudgment. Just keep blogging!! You're doing OK.


you should be a motivational speaker lol
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I'm at 25.6N 80.4W, South Dade county.


Hehe... got it.

Thx TCW for the reply too...:P
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GFDL has Fred in the SE GOM at the end of the run
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Steering, Steering, Steering

The situation is similar in terms of Steering, that is what has been stated since it was first posted. No one ever said this could be the strength of Andrew

Again another situation where people take things out of context


No matter how may prefaces one uses, statements are always open to misunderstanding. Ever been on a debate team? I think it is why so many people are reluctant to make a statement, for fear of ridicule and misjudgment. Just keep blogging!! You're doing OK.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting alaina1085:


Ill get right on that lol. Yea im sick of rain to say the least.


yeah i can imagine
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Quoting Floodman:


Always the more complicated models, to say the least


Im female and even ill agree with that! LOL.
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post 412 - looks like the goatee has been shaved to stubble.
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I'm at 25.6N 80.4W, South Dade county.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Where you at nrt?



SEFL
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Quoting Floodman:


Always the more complicated models, to say the least


no doubt, that is one forecast I have total confidence in
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98L looks like its firing up

98L RGB Flash
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Quoting tornadodude:


must be the, er, female ones ;)


Always the more complicated models, to say the least
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Quoting tornadodude:


howdy, that sucks about the rain, wont you share?

I've had 0.06 IN this month!


Ill get right on that lol. Yea im sick of rain to say the least.
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419. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:


06 is from Last night,..12 Z usually comes after 6 in the Universe,..but hey..who am I?

LOL

O..K
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5788
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Fred 12Z GFDL. At 96 hours directly over me as a TS.


HOUR: .0 LONG: -66.14 LAT: 24.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.08
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -66.89 LAT: 25.55 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.98
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -68.07 LAT: 25.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.20
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -69.09 LAT: 25.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.41
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 24.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.85
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -70.43 LAT: 24.42 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.62
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -71.21 LAT: 24.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.16
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -72.20 LAT: 24.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.67
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -73.33 LAT: 24.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.85
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -73.96 LAT: 24.46 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.40
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -75.14 LAT: 24.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.17 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.03
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -76.06 LAT: 24.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.95
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -76.88 LAT: 24.74 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.02
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.98 LAT: 24.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.73
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.06 LAT: 25.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.36
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.74 LAT: 25.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.92
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.56 LAT: 25.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.76
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.77 LAT: 26.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.55
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -83.04 LAT: 26.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.68 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.19
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -84.17 LAT: 26.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.62 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.37
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.18 LAT: 26.36 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.22
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -85.98 LAT: 26.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.20



Where you at nrt?
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Quoting Grothar:


Ah, Patrap, my favorite, the sophisticated models.


must be the, er, female ones ;)
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
You can say its going to hit Florida, and its NOT considered a wishcast lol



No, it's considered the current forecast.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE WHAT SEEM TO BE
THE REMNANTS OF "FRED" WILL MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AS
THE LEFTOVER WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN, BUT
ALSO IN AN INCREASE IN THE EAST FLOW WITH AN INCREASE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. EVEN THOUGH "FRED" REMNANTS
WILL EITHER MOVE WEST OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE BY TUE, POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SCT CATEGORY THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS WEST ADVECTING MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
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Quoting StormW:


'Cept for me.


Ahh, but as far as Storms go, you're our fave!
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Quoting alaina1085:
Afternoon everyone,

its raining AGAIN here in SE LA.


howdy, that sucks about the rain, wont you share?

I've had 0.06 IN this month!
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
You never know when Mother Nature is going to pull a trump card. IMO, to down play a situation is far more dangerous than over hyping a situation. The best would be a blend of the two, boy would this place be more relaxing. TD/TS approaching this coast, assuming Fred is able to get back there, is something I would keep 10 eyes on if I had them. Waters in the Bahama's & SEFL are plenty warm enough to support rapid intensification, shear is the question of course.


And moisture...I know I keep asking this, but the MJO? It's supposed turn upward in the next few days, yes? That would help, huh?
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Afternoon everyone,

its raining AGAIN here in SE LA.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
You can say its going to hit Florida, and its NOT considered a wishcast lol


Yep, even the good doctor is saying that...only question is, what will "it" be?
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Quoting JRRP:

a bit more south
06 Z


06 is from Last night,..12 Z usually comes after 6 in the Universe,..but hey..who am I?

LOL
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408. JRRP
Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5788
Quoting StormW:


'Cept for me.


LOL
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Making any pre-mature references to an Andrew situation is irresponsible given the current status of the disturbance which is basically a stuggling disturbance heading into possibly more favorable conditions over the next few days. Just need to keep a close eye on it; it would take a lot of "cosmic" allignment of numerous factors to converge at one time in the Bamamas region for this one to get back to depression or TS status......We will not know the answer (either way) until Sunday if ex-Fred is still around at that time.


Steering, Steering, Steering

The situation is similar in terms of Steering, that is what has been stated since it was first posted. No one ever said this could be the strength of Andrew

Again another situation where people take things out of context
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Fred 12Z GFDL. At 96 hours directly over me as a TS.


HOUR: .0 LONG: -66.14 LAT: 24.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.08
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -66.89 LAT: 25.55 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.98
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -68.07 LAT: 25.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.20
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -69.09 LAT: 25.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.41
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 24.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.85
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -70.43 LAT: 24.42 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.62
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -71.21 LAT: 24.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.16
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -72.20 LAT: 24.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.67
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -73.33 LAT: 24.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.85
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -73.96 LAT: 24.46 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.40
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -75.14 LAT: 24.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.17 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.03
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -76.06 LAT: 24.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.95
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -76.88 LAT: 24.74 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.02
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.98 LAT: 24.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.73
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.06 LAT: 25.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.36
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.74 LAT: 25.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.92
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.56 LAT: 25.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.76
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.77 LAT: 26.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.55
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -83.04 LAT: 26.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.68 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.19
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -84.17 LAT: 26.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.62 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.37
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.18 LAT: 26.36 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.22
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -85.98 LAT: 26.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.20


where sre you?
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403. 789
Quoting StormW:


Likely not, but current forecast steering indicates it could slow before Florida.
if it desapiers at 2 its stalling if orange at 2 its not!!!! ???
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402. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:
98L 12 Z


a bit more south
06 Z
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5788
Quoting Patrap:
98L 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Ah, Patrap, my favorite, the sophisticated models.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Making any pre-mature references to an Andrew situation is irresponsible given the current status of the disturbance which is basically a stuggling disturbance heading into possibly more favorable conditions over the next few days. Just need to keep a close eye on it; it would take a lot of "cosmic" allignment of numerous factors to converge at one time in the Bamamas region for this one to get back to depression or TS status......We will not know the answer (either way) until Sunday if ex-Fred is still around at that time.
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Enjoy a Fine Weekend in the Se CONUS.

No Hits,No runs,..no Storms.




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Quoting hydrus:
Vommiting? Probably an uncontrolled response to B.S....

bingo!
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Fred 12Z GFDL. At 96 hours directly over me as a TS.


HOUR: .0 LONG: -66.14 LAT: 24.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.08
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -66.89 LAT: 25.55 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.98
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -68.07 LAT: 25.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.20
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -69.09 LAT: 25.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.41
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 24.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.85
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -70.43 LAT: 24.42 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.62
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -71.21 LAT: 24.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.16
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -72.20 LAT: 24.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.67
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -73.33 LAT: 24.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.85
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -73.96 LAT: 24.46 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.40
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -75.14 LAT: 24.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.17 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.03
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -76.06 LAT: 24.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.55 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.95
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -76.88 LAT: 24.74 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.86 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.02
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.98 LAT: 24.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.73
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.06 LAT: 25.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.36
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.74 LAT: 25.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.92
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -80.56 LAT: 25.63 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.76
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -81.77 LAT: 26.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.55
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -83.04 LAT: 26.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.68 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.19
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -84.17 LAT: 26.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.62 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.37
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -85.18 LAT: 26.36 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.22
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -85.98 LAT: 26.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.20

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You can say its going to hit Florida, and its NOT considered a wishcast lol
98L 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Quoting rwdobson:


Agreed...looks like it's going to encounter some SW flow in the not-to-distant future which should push it further north.


either way one thing about quasi-fred that is different from the norm is.......
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


yup but the track TS put is still plausible

personally I think it would be further up the coast


Agreed...looks like it's going to encounter some SW flow in the not-to-distant future which should push it further north.
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Quoting rwdobson:
Isn't x-fred/07L centered north of 25N already?
Yea it would have to move south of west to hit SEF from what i am seeing. It may happen but currently i dont see it
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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