Disturbance 98L probably no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, and has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity overnight. This morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) shows a complete, circular wind pattern around the low pressure center of 98L, but top winds were only 25 mph. Wind shear is moderate, about 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

The global computer models predict differing amounts of wind shear in the path of 98L as it moves west-northwest at 10 mph over the next three days. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L, while the NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF do. The models that do develop 98L predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. Given the moderate or higher wind shear in 98L's path, and dry air to the northwest, the system should develop only slowly. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away, near 25N 66W, about 900 miles east of Florida. Wind shear is 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and there is very dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and it will have a tough time regenerating with so much dry air and wind shear. The remains of Fred should move over Florida Monday night or Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning QuickSCAT image of the Atlantic, showing the well-defined surface circulation of disturbance 98L. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

One year anniversary of Hurricane Ike
I've been focusing this week on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, but we also passed the one year anniversary of Hurricane Ike. Many areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast affected by Ike have fully recovered, but recovery efforts will still take many more years in other areas. In Galveston, which suffered $3.2 billion in damage, 75% of the businesses have reopened, and 95% of the population has returned. Boston.com has posted a very nice series of clickable images that show before and after scenes of some of the areas that have recovered from Hurricane Ike.

Ike washed away huge sections of beach and dunes that helped protect the Texas coast from more serious damage, and this week the state legislature approved $135 million in funds to help replace these critical natural protection systems. The restored beaches will probably last ten years, barring another strike by a hurricane of Ike's stature. Texas considers two-thirds of its 367-mile shoreline to be critically eroding, which it defines as a historical rate of more than 2 feet a year. Much of this erosion can be blamed on sea level rise. Global sea level rose seven inches over the past century, and is expected to rise at least that much over the coming century.


Figure 2. Villagers in Haiti plant one of their "Million Tree Campaign" trees. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Hurricane relief donations
There hasn't been a need for new hurricane-related disaster relief efforts this year, in stark contrast to 2008. However, the charities we rely on to provide disaster relief still require funds to operate in quiet years, and I encourage you to consider a donation at this time to one of my two favorite disaster relief charities. Portlight.org, which was very effective at helping out isolated, under-served communities in the wake of Hurricane Ike, is committed to raising $12,000 to purchase and outfit a mobile kitchen. This kitchen will be capable of feeding up to 2,000 people two hot meals per day in post-disaster situations. The Lambi Fund of Haiti has launched its "Million Tree Campaign", which aims to use local labor to plant a million trees over the next three years along severely deforested slopes in Haiti. Both of these charities wrote to me several times last year about the stunning generosity readers of this blog showed with their donations. Thanks!

Twenty years ago today
As Hurricane Hugo approached the U.S. Virgin Islands in the early morning hours of September 18, 1989, the storm slowed down to 10 mph. The slower speed allowed Hugo to punish the island of St. Croix with the worst beating of any location along the hurricane's destructive path. At 2am local time on September 18, 1989, Hurricane Hugo's eyewall struck St. Croix, bringing incredibly ferocious Category 4 winds, sustained at 140 mph. The hurricane's gusts were remarkably violent, and many residents witnessed tornado-like vorticies barreling across the island as the hurricane raged about them. A storm surge of 2 - 3 feet, topped by battering waves 20 - 23 feet high, assaulted the coast, adding to the destruction. Wunderground member Mike Steers wrote me to describe his experience on St. Croix: "Hugo was incredible. Many vortexes came in that night. The roar and intensity of the winds that night were incredible. When the eyewall came over, we were forced to take refuge in the bathroom as the rest of the house came apart. The pressure was so low outside the house that all of the water was sucked out of the toilet and an air draft was created through the toilet. Just when I thought it was as bad as it would get, the intensity of it all dialed up even higher. Dozens and dozens of times, my ears would violently pop due to rapid pressure changes. The next morning, of course, the devastation was unbelievable. In my front yard was a 18-foot boat with an outboard on it, that had been picked up from a marina two miles away. I had lost my house, and job, the Seaplane company I was a pilot for. After a couple months, I had to leave everything behind. In some respects, after 20 years, there an many aspects of the society that have yet to recover". Two people were killed on St. Croix, 80 injured, and 90% of the buildings were damaged or destroyed. Damage estimates for St. Croix were astronomical, over $1 billion, and the island's entire infrastructure was virtually wiped out. Six weeks after the hurricane, only 25% of the public roads had been cleared, and only 25% of the island had power.


Figure 3. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 18, 1989. Note the lack of cloud cover on the hurricane's southwest side, indicating that strong upper-level winds from the southwest were likely creating wind shear, weakening the storm. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

As Hugo departed St. Croix, strong upper-level winds from the southwest created wind shear that weakened the storm to a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds. The upper level winds also caused Hugo to accelerate to 15 mph and turn more northwest. The eye passed over Puerto Rico's Vieques Island at 8am and over Fajardo on the extreme northeastern tip of Puerto Rico at 9am. On Culebra Island, an island twelve miles east of Fajardo, a gust to 170 mph was recorded by the ship Night Cap in the main harbor. The south-facing harbor received sustained southerly winds in excess of 120 mph for several hours as Hugo roared by to the south. The resulting wave "set-up" created a storm surge in excess of 13 feet in the supposedly hurricane-proof harbor. A large portion of the Caribbean's charter boat fleet, some 200 boats, was sheltering in Culebra's harbor, and 136 of these boats were badly damaged or sunk. Over 80% of the wooden structures on both Culebra and Vieques were destroyed.


Figure 4. Damage on St. Croix (two top photos), Culebra Island (bottom right), and Puerto Rico's Roosevelt Roads Navy Base (bottom left), after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Along the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico, waves up to ten feet high riding on top of a 3 - 4 foot storm surge caused severe coastal flooding of low-lying areas. Hugo's winds tore into Puerto Rico's El Yunque rainforest, downing thousands of trees. The agricultural sector was devastated, with nearly all of the island's banana and coffee crops wiped out. Twelve deaths in Puerto Rico were attributed to Hugo, six of which occurred in the southern city of Guayama where some residents were electrocuted by downed power lines. Nearly 28,000 people were left homeless by the storm, and damage to the island exceeded $1 billion.

Storm chaser Michael Laca was at Luquillo Beach on the northeast shore of Puerto Rico, and has posted a remarkable 28-minute video on YouTube of Hurricane Hugo footage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TriniGirl26:


u were missing? don't mind me. i now come online. was in rain, flood and traffic for over 2 hours this evening.


haha yeah i got banned for a day
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8344
Quoting Weather456:
Upper winds are being funneled over Fred between an upper ridge over the Bahamas and an upper low east of Fred's circulation. The system appears to be shredded to pieces.


The circulation is under the high clouds at 26N 68W
wow, this blog is dead
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8344
Quoting tornadodude:
Howdy all!


u were missing? don't mind me. i now come online. was in rain, flood and traffic for over 2 hours this evening.
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Upper winds are being funneled over Fred between an upper ridge over the Bahamas and an upper low east of Fred's circulation. The system appears to be shredded to pieces.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Why did they have to replace Ivan with another Russian name? Why not something like Ian or I-am-going-to-be-a-weak-TS-that-gets-sheared-to-bits?


that will work...lol....but i think the name a "little" to long :)
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Quoting TheFutureMet:
the picture on post 925 is a buzzkill.

C'mon man, put some clothes on!!!



you dont have arms in your picture
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8344
Quoting TheFutureMet:
the picture on post 925 is a buzzkill.

C'mon man, put some clothes on!!!



As far as I can tell, you don't have any clothes on in your avatar either. Besides, your figure leaves much to be desired.
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Fred On, Apply Directly to Florida. Fred On, Apply Directly to Florida.
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the picture on post 925 is a buzzkill.

C'mon man, put some clothes on!!!

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932. beell
Fred still paired up with the ULL centered near 22N 65W suppling northerly upper level winds in conjunction with semi-opposing low level flow. Shear.

ULL will probably follow the ULL located at the base of the TUTT in the western Caribbean.
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Howdy all!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8344
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I will be interested to follow this possible new source of imagery:


Russia launches Soyuz rocket with Meteor-M weather satellite


MOSCOW, September 17 (RIA Novosti) - Russia has launched a new meteorological satellite on board a Soyuz 2.1b carrier rocket, a spokesman for the Federal Space Agency Roscosmos said on Thursday.

The satellite has already reached orbit.

The Meteor-M satellite weighs about 2,700 kilograms (6,000 lbs) and has a service life of five years. It will orbit at an altitude of 830 kilometers (515 miles).


===========
Translated from:
http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=75750&cid=125

Meteorological satellite, Meteor-M successfully launched

As the CEO of this company, Leonid Makridenko, "Meteor-M No. 1 in a series of promising space vehicles hydrometeorological service." "It is designed to quickly obtain information for weather forecasting, monitoring of the ozone layer and the radiation environment in near-Earth space, as well as to monitor the sea surface, including the ice situation, in order to provide navigation in the polar regions, - the Makridenko. - On-board information complex has a multispectral scanner, small and medium (up to 59 m) permit, which swath of not less than 2800 km will ensure that images of clouds, land surface, sea ice cover in the visible and infrared spectral regions.

"For the first time in Hydrometeorological spacecraft as a full-board equipment includes a radar complex" Severyanin-M "for all-weather remote sensing of the SM-range radio waves", - said Makridenko. He said that the second satellite, Meteor-M "will be launched before 2012.
Who are the ruskies kidding? Its a spy satellite.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209
Quoting weatherbro:


opps...
WEATHERBRO!!!!! IT IS FANTASTIC TO HAVE YOU BACK !!!! HAVEN'T HEARD FROM YOU SINCE LAST OCTOBER !!!! WELCOME BACK, NOW WE'LL ALL SEE THGE POWER OF WEATHERBRO !!!
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Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Maybe Karen was Fred in drag


Fred and Karen both stem from planet earth's first hurricane... oh, about 5 billion years ago. Its still the same circulation. lol

AKA Hurricane AlphaOmega
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Next years naming list gives any Floridian the chills with the exception of 4 names..

Alex
Bonnie
Colin (Charley 2004)
Danielle
Earl
Fiona (Frances 2004)
Gaston
Hermine
Igor (Ivan 2004)
Julia (Jeanne 2004)
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

Why did they have to replace Ivan with another Russian name? Why not something like Ian or I-am-going-to-be-a-weak-TS-that-gets-sheared-to-bits?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
Quoting Dakster:



Interesting analogy.... I feel a commercial coming on.


O! nice, I hope karen, er fred, doesnt get a "head On apply directly to the forhead" commercial
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I will be interested to follow this possible new source of imagery:


Russia launches Soyuz rocket with Meteor-M weather satellite


MOSCOW, September 17 (RIA Novosti) - Russia has launched a new meteorological satellite on board a Soyuz 2.1b carrier rocket, a spokesman for the Federal Space Agency Roscosmos said on Thursday.

The satellite has already reached orbit.

The Meteor-M satellite weighs about 2,700 kilograms (6,000 lbs) and has a service life of five years. It will orbit at an altitude of 830 kilometers (515 miles).


===========
Translated from:
http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=75750&cid=125

Meteorological satellite, Meteor-M successfully launched

As the CEO of this company, Leonid Makridenko, "Meteor-M No. 1 in a series of promising space vehicles hydrometeorological service." "It is designed to quickly obtain information for weather forecasting, monitoring of the ozone layer and the radiation environment in near-Earth space, as well as to monitor the sea surface, including the ice situation, in order to provide navigation in the polar regions, - the Makridenko. - On-board information complex has a multispectral scanner, small and medium (up to 59 m) permit, which swath of not less than 2800 km will ensure that images of clouds, land surface, sea ice cover in the visible and infrared spectral regions.

"For the first time in Hydrometeorological spacecraft as a full-board equipment includes a radar complex" Severyanin-M "for all-weather remote sensing of the SM-range radio waves", - said Makridenko. He said that the second satellite, Meteor-M "will be launched before 2012.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The west side has been out from under the shear for several hours, now the eastern side is slowly moving clear. Just imagine one side of your nose congested, then using a little Afrin spray. In about six hours, this guy should be feeling a whole lot better.

The question then becomes, will he be breathing air conditioning, sauna, or pure steam?


I agree.
An interesting analogy.
Reminded me to change my A/C filter.
Fred might need the same thing, a new filter could ward off the SAL...amongst your choices this is Florida, it's A/C all the way. No chance for sauna. Nobody here wants a sauna...in September.
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Quoting CandiBarr:


lol! Im thinking fred is just karen in custome

Maybe Karen was Fred in drag
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
07L is still suffering from dry air or wind shear, still looks disorganized.
Yeah I know, every time I look at 07L I just laugh. It looks like a thundershower that had its but kicked in...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The west side has been out from under the shear for several hours, now the eastern side is slowly moving clear. Just imagine one side of your nose congested, then using a little Afrin spray. In about six hours, this guy should be feeling a whole lot better.

The question then becomes, will he be breathing air conditioning, sauna, or pure steam?




Interesting analogy.... I feel a commercial coming on.
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circulation of ex Fred is under some high clouds, once shear decreases it will start to look better
Quoting CandiBarr:


lol! Im thinking fred is just karen in custome


well, it is getting close to Halloween.... :)
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Quoting Weather456:
Fred's saga has been the most interesting this year. his remnants may last to next year. Look out for Alex.


lol! Im thinking fred is just karen in custome
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The west side has been out from under the shear for several hours, now the eastern side is slowly moving clear. Just imagine one side of your nose congested, then using a little Afrin spray. In about six hours, this guy should be feeling a whole lot better.

The question then becomes, will he be breathing air conditioning, sauna, or pure steam?



Definitely looks like some mucus dripping from 07L.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15891
07L is still suffering from dry air or wind shear, still looks disorganized.
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Do we have a seperate mlc and llc with 98l, with the mlc continuing w and the llc slowly moving nnw?
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Texashurricane you have mail :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting laflastormtracker:


Wow, thanks for this site. This radar imagery is incredible. Still awes me. Ike was a very bad storm, but the 2005 storms were just remarkable. I agree Rita will likely be studied during upcoming years since we know traits she possessed are part of most hurricanes.


You're welcome! Good thing THATS not on anybody's radar. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
The west side has been out from under the shear for several hours, now the eastern side is slowly moving clear. Just imagine one side of your nose congested, then using a little Afrin spray. In about six hours, this guy should be feeling a whole lot better.

The question then becomes, will he be breathing air conditioning, sauna, or pure steam?

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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Sure. Here ya go. Link complete wit that irritating bleep out. :)

I think I'm trying to understand just what happened. That's why I've been looking stuff up. Bad memories of course. But all that aside, I was just awestruck at what they can do. But I do understand not wanting to dwell on it. Hopefully we'll have decades to study this one while no other shows up.


Wow, thanks for this site. This radar imagery is incredible. Still awes me. Ike was a very bad storm, but the 2005 storms were just remarkable. I agree Rita will likely be studied during upcoming years since we know traits she possessed are part of most hurricanes.
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Quoting cybercanes:
Great pick since the game was played on Thursday.

Are you sure?.... lol.... they looked very good
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
reed there are people out there have the opinion that Ex Fred has ZERO, ZILCH, ZIPPO chance of developing and thats fine

But those same people cant seem to handle that there are others who do feel it could have a shot and obviously it does or else the NHC wouldnt be paying attention to it.

They can think what they want, its never that cut and dry, however some think it is. Those people I dont hold in very high regard in terms of their opinion


Just Remember this folks..."It ain't over till it's over!"
and the fat lady maybe tuning up for Fred,
but she ain't sung the death song yet!
Member Since: June 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
Quoting laflastormtracker:


Rita was a monster. I think and look back at info about her major impacts occasionally but do not like to keep records of individual storms or damage. Some bad memories involved w/Rita. OTOH I am always willing to learn more so I'll take a look at the radar you send if you would like to share!!


Sure. Here ya go. Link complete wit that irritating bleep out. :)

I think I'm trying to understand just what happened. That's why I've been looking stuff up. Bad memories of course. But all that aside, I was just awestruck at what they can do. But I do understand not wanting to dwell on it. Hopefully we'll have decades to study this one while no other shows up.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Great pick since the game was played on Thursday.
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Quoting Weather456:
Fred's saga has been the most interesting this year. his remnants may last to next year. Look out for Alex.


Indeed.

That scary circulation out in the eastern Atlantic is quite large.
Lows and shear will be a challenge for it (Grace)... although the name itself has some ring to it from back in 1991. Spooky.

Is fred still threatening to attack the USA with its 35 mph swirl??

ROTFLMAO.
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Quoting Weather456:
Fred's saga has been the most interesting this year. his remnants may last to next year. Look out for Alex.


Next years naming list gives any Floridian the chills with the exception of 4 names..

Alex
Bonnie
Colin (Charley 2004)
Danielle
Earl
Fiona (Frances 2004)
Gaston
Hermine
Igor (Ivan 2004)
Julia (Jeanne 2004)
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
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Quoting CanesWorldCanesWorld:

Actually correct me if I'm wrong but they start doing hourly updated when landfall is eminent or within a few hours... I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure
By the way a lurker here... my 1st post... I usually sit back and watch others argue... actually entertaining at times..


Generally its 3 hrs if warnings and wathes are in effect or if its near land. But yes they do have hourly and 2 hourly updates like Dennis 2005.
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Quoting watcher123:
My interesting picks for College Football:

Kansas State to upset UCLA.
Kentucky over Louisville
Arkansas over Georgia
Eastern Michigan over Michigan in a huge let-down following the win vs ND.

Washington upsets an over-confident USC coming off the Ohio State win.

My pick is Miami will beat Georgia Tech
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Quoting IKE:


If there's a named system in the Atlantic...yes they update at 5 pm EDST and every 3 hours if watches and warnings are in effect. If not, it's every 6 hours.....5 pm, 11 pm, 5 am, and 11 am.

Actually correct me if I'm wrong but they start doing hourly updated when landfall is eminent or within a few hours... I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure
By the way a lurker here... my 1st post... I usually sit back and watch others argue... actually entertaining at times..
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Quoting tornadodude:


Well, good luck! We (Purdue) play Northern Illinois tomorrow, Notre Dame next week, should be intersting


Go Boilers !!!!!!!
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Fred's saga has been the most interesting this year. his remnants may last to next year. Look out for Alex.
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WS-

Aye caramba, baby!
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi Tex. :) Been mostly on lurk mode for the last couple days.


Homeless - You got mail. :)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.