First Category 5 storm of the year is Choi-Wan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on September 16, 2009

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The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to generate sporadic bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity over the middle Atlantic Ocean. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 30 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. However, QuikSCAT also showed that the remains no longer have a surface circulation. Water vapor satellite loops show that ex-Fred has moved beneath an upper-level low pressure system. This low features dry air on all sides, and this dry air will interfere with any redevelopment of Fred. While wind shear is now moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days, the presence of so much dry air will require at least three days for the remains of Fred to overcome and regenerate a surface circulation. Only the HWRF model redevelops Fred, predicting it will develop on Sunday as it approaches the Bahama Islands. NHC is giving ex-Fred a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Fred's remains will be near the Bahamas on Sunday, and near Florida on Monday night. It is possible that a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the eastern U.S. early next week will turn Fred's remains northwards into South Carolina/North Carolina on Monday/Tuesday.

This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows a surface circulation near 13N 32, with a small region of heavy thunderstorms to the north. This region is about 450 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, and is headed west at about 10 mph. Satellite imagery shows a decrease in the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, and high wind shear of 20 knots is interfering with development. A band of high wind shear lies just to the north of the disturbance, and will continue to interfere with the system's development over the next three days. NHC is giving the system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week.


Figure 1. The remains of Hurricane Fred (left) keep on chugging across the Atlantic. A tropical wave is 450 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands (right). The thunderstorms of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are far to the south, off the coast of Africa.

Super Typhoon Choi-Wan hits Category 5 strength
This year's first Category 5 tropical cyclone is Super Typhoon Choi-Wan, which intensified into a Category 5 storm with 160 mph sustained winds yesterday afternoon. Choi-Wan is over the open ocean south of Japan, and is not expected to impact any land areas. It is unusual to have to the globe's first Category 5 storm form this late in the year. Indeed, global tropical cyclone activity as measured by the ACE index, which measures destructive potential, has been near historic lows over the past two years. Only one Category 5 storm was recorded in 2008--Super Typhoon Jangmi, which attained winds of 165 mph at 06 GMT on September 27, as it approached the north coast of Taiwan. The last time so few Category 5 storms were recorded globally was in 1974, when there were none.

We got a rare treat yesterday when the Cloudsat satellite caught a perfect cross section through Choi-Wan when it was a Category 4 super-typhoon with 150 mph winds (Figure 2). The CloudSat satellite, launched in 2006, carries the first satellite-based millimeter wavelength cloud radar. It is the world's most sensitive cloud-profiling radar, more than 1000 times more sensitive than current weather radars. It collects data about the vertical structure of clouds, including the quantities of liquid water and ice, and how clouds affect the amount of sunlight and terrestrial radiation that passes through the atmosphere. The satellite has a narrow field of view, so can image only a small portion of the planet each day. About once per year, CloudSat happens to slice through the eye of an Atlantic hurricane. This happened last month, when Cloudsat caught a remarkable view of Hurricane Bill.


Figure 2. Top: conventional visible satellite image of Super Typhoon Choi-Wan at 3:57 UTC Tuesday, 9/15/09 from Japan's MTSAT. Bottom: cross section through Choi-Wan's eye taken at the same time, from the CloudSat cloud radar instrument. The CloudSat pass occurs along the red line in the top image. The CloudSat pass runs from south (left side of CloudSat image) to north (right side of CloudSat image). At the time of the image, Choi-Wan was strengthening into a Category 4 Super Typhoon (150 mph winds, 928 mb pressure), and reached Category 5 strength fourteen hours after this image was taken. In the CloudSat image, one can see 6+ isolated towers, marking the positions of spiral bands on the south side of the center. The eye is remarkably well-defined, with symmetric "hot towers" extending up to 55,000 feet, sloping outward with height. The thin solid grey line at 5 km marks the 0°C temperature line. Ice particles falling inside the hurricane melt at an altitude just below the 0°C line, creating a "bright band" of orange echoes throughout most of the hurricane. This is one a few inner eye images CloudSat has captured of an Category 4/5 tropical cyclone. Image credit: NASA/Colorado State University/Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Twenty years ago today
On September 16, 1989, Hurricane Hugo weakened slightly as it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. The tight inner eyewall that we had flown through the previous day had contracted to the point where it became unstable and collapsed. A new eyewall formed out of an outer spiral band, and Hugo's highest winds dropped to 140 mph--Category 4 strength. As this was occurring, the storm began a more northwesterly path and slowed down, in response to a region of low pressure north of Puerto Rico. By midnight, Hugo was only an hour away from its first encounter with land--the Lesser Antilles island of Guadeloupe.

Back on Barbados, our one undamaged P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew a mission into Hugo, while the crew of the damaged aircraft remained on the ground. Our plane was grounded until a team of experts from the mainland could fly out and perform a detailed x-ray analysis of the wings to determine if the high g-forces we endured had caused structural damage. This might take a week, so the plan was to fly us back to Miami on a commercial jet. However, Hugo had forced the cancellation of virtually every commercial flight in the eastern Caribbean that day, so we were stuck on the island. Most of us spent a frustrated day touring the island on rented mopeds, getting a look at Hugo from the ground. We got thoroughly drenched by one of Hugo's outermost spiral bands, but the hurricane was too far away to bring any winds more than 20 mph to the island.

That night, our already jangled nerves got a new jolt--a tropical depression had formed due east of Barbados, and was headed right for us. In two days time, it seemed likely that Tropical Storm Iris would be paying us a visit.


Figure 3. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 16, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

Jeff Masters

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1358. IKE
2:08 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1357. GatorWX
2:04 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting IKE:
There's a line of thundershowers passing over me right now in the Florida panhandle that look better then what's left of Fred....




FREDEX....near 23N and 60W....



I mentioned it on the last page, but it was the last post of that page. I'd watch the tail of that front north of the BOC. Looks like there is a little spin down there. It's under about 20-25kts of shear now, and looks like it'll only get worse, but it is close to home.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3609
1356. IKE
1:56 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
There's a line of thundershowers passing over me right now in the Florida panhandle that look better then what's left of Fred....




FREDEX....near 23N and 60W....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1355. cybergrump
1:54 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Seeing the visable I can see the center of what ever circulation just under the 25N 61W
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1354. caneswatch
1:54 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Here's my outlook for all 3 systems:

Ex-Fred- Still needs to be watched. It looks like Fred is moving away from the ULL. It has lost circulation but not the winds and could be developing in the next 72 hours.

Caribbean ULL- Right now this AOI has a MLC. It will move to the west into the Western Caribbean, and while in the Western Caribbean, it will not move much due to the very weak steering currents. Also, another thing worth noting is that the SSTs in that area are extremely warm, in the 86-90 degree range. If the circulation drops down to the surface, a RI like Wilma is not out of the question.

CV Wave- The CV wave has very notable circulation but what it does not have is much thunderstorm activity. Also, it will enter an area of 20-30 knot wind shear. But, once it gets out of that, this has the potential for development as the SSTs are also high in the 86-88 degree range and the shear drops down to 10 knots.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1353. Grothar
1:51 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:





Certainly gives on an incentive to be correct. My you people are strict on this blog. In the army when we made a mistake, we just had to drop for an extra 20. (For those who don't know that means push-ups)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26558
1352. help4u
1:49 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
wishcasters,season is over.slowest year in modern times.stick a fork in it ,enjoy the fall weather.
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1289
1351. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:48 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:



One question: Do they de-feather the Crow first?



Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
1350. Grothar
1:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2009





































































































Severe Weather, or Lack Thereof

With all the talk of global warming potentially increasing the frequency and/or intensity of severe weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes, the following news may surprise you.

When Hurricane Lili made landfall on the Louisiana coast just southwest of New Iberia, it marked the end of the second-longest period since 1900 that passed between hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. mainland. The last hurricane to hit the United States was Irene, which crossed the southern tip of the Florida peninsula on October 15, 1999—almost three years earlier. The record-holder for the longest time between U.S. landfalling hurricanes was the period from August 9, 1980's hurricane Allen to August 18, 1983's hurricane Alicia. The only other time that more than two years passed between landfalls was from late September 1929 to early September 1932.

If global warming were increasing the frequency of Atlantic basin hurricanes, and thus increasing the threat to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, you'd think that long periods between storms would be a thing of the past.

But obviously that is not the case. A century-long look at the annual number of hurricanes which have made landfall on the U.S. mainland (Figure1) reveals nothing that would indicate global warming is having any effect on these occurrences. That is, unless you make something of the fact that the average number of hurricanes per year that hit the United States during the period 1901–1950 was 1.94, while that number dropped to 1.41 during 1951–2001. That's a full half a storm less per year.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26558
1349. GatorWX
1:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Morning everyone! Keep an eye on the tail end of the front in the Gulf. Shear isn't too conducive, around 20-25 kts, buts OHC and SST's sure are. Looks like a little spin is already trying to form, and shear isn't high enough that some doesn't develop. Just thought I'd mention it. Unless Fred can reform his surface circulation before getting near the Bahamas, I wouldn't put to much emphasis on his remains. If an surface feature were to form before hen, the warm water of the gulfstream could help regenerate to at least a TS depending on the track. Shear wont be too conducive here either. The ULL south of Hispaniola is interesting as Tampa noted, but it looks as if its thunderstorms are already waning. I'd keep an eye on it though. Neither wave in the e atlantic is looking too impressive as of late and both features are also battling shear. This season is turning out to be a lot like '06 as far as lots of upper level features creating a good bit of shear!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3609
1348. PensacolaDoug
1:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Re: Fred-ex. Not trying to bash the NHC here but..I don't get the current TWO. There is still some low-level spin and it fires convection intermitantly. Got to be a little something there. Whether its going to get its act together or not is debatable. Who ya gonna believe? The NHC or your lyin' eyes?


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1347. Grothar
1:40 PM GMT on September 17, 2009


Wish I could post the animated version of this. The High pressure is building very strongly behind what is left of Fred. Circulation looks poor, but convection is trying to wrap towards the center. It is at least something to watch today. If anyone can post the animated version it would be appreciated. Better than discussing insurance.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26558
1346. CybrTeddy
1:37 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Hi all, I had to drive home from work early today, I thought my Swine Flu went away yesterday and Tuesday but it hides, and I'm WAY WORSE today than ever before. If this keeps up, I might have to go to an emergency room (god hope not) Keep me in your prayers!

Also, ex-Fred is still a player, watch it. As long as it keeps on generating thunderstorms it still has atleast a 20% chance of regenerating.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24263
1345. TampaSpin
1:36 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
HUM visible of xFred.....gotta run still moving into new house......remembe IKE said 100% NO.....i give xFred 50% chance....i after see the visible..it might be higher.....NHC might be eating some crow too.....LOL....I doubt it, those guys and gals are very good!

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1343. kmanislander
1:34 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Good morning everyone

Just one post then off to the office.

I only see one weak area of interest and that is the surface low near 13.5N 37W. It has very little convection associated with it at the moment and is moving to the W slowly. No immediate threat of development there.

The ULL in the Central Caribbean is no closer to the surface than it was 24 hours ago. The vorticity signature is still located at the 500 mb level ( approximately 18,000 feet )and thus a very long way off from becoming a surface feature, if it ever does.

It will however produce rain as it moves W, particularly for any place on the SE side of the feature where diffluence will be the strongest.

Have a great day.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1342. Grothar
1:34 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Who do you all think posts the best images on here? Orcasystems, Patrap, or Ice? Some look scary and others look wimpy. Much like the pictures of my first wife!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26558
1341. Nolehead
1:32 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
LOL!! T-spin you know it, it's all good...
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1932
1340. Grothar
1:31 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its just guess about FRED but, conditions are better now than they have been for days.....WE Will Drink together are eat bird together.....LOL


Don't like to do either, however, if one must then one must. I do believe there is a little punch left in Fred, or ex-Fred of little wave-Fred. Do not believe it could be anything major at this point. Just an annoyance.

One question: Do they de-feather the Crow first?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26558
1339. Orcasystems
1:31 PM GMT on September 17, 2009


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1338. TampaSpin
1:30 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting Nolehead:
Its just guess about FRED but, conditions are better now than they have been for days.....WE Will Drink together are eat bird together.....LOL

I got the A-1 and Beer ready....LOL!!


Wow A-1 and Beer....you tapped into your Hurricane supply crate.....don't do that! You will need it later....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1337. Nolehead
1:25 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Its just guess about FRED but, conditions are better now than they have been for days.....WE Will Drink together are eat bird together.....LOL

I got the A-1 and Beer ready....LOL!!
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1932
1336. TampaSpin
1:24 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Tampa, if you believe it say it. On this blog you will knocked for either view, so what makes the difference. Stand up for your opinion!!

The only reason I don't, is afraid I might get yelled at!! lol


Its just guess about FRED but, conditions are better now than they have been for days.....WE Will Drink together are eat bird together.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1334. amd
1:23 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Since we are talking about late season storms, I think there is the potential for 1 or 2 more in either the southwestern gulf of mexico, or the western Caribbean. I am particularly concerned about any system in the western Caribbean because it may stay there for a while due to possible weak steering currents. This is dependent on an upward motion of the MJO, plus favorable wind shear.

But I will be honest, I would not be shocked if there are no more storms in the Atlantic.`
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
1333. TampaSpin
1:22 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting cybergrump:
talking about fred he seems to be moving away from the ULL and wind shear is low also i see there is not as much dry air as before so ex fred need to be watched.


Just watch folks.....FReddy Krugger never died!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1332. Skyepony (Mod)
1:21 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Does anyone track southern hemispheric cyclones. the season's coming up.


Yep.. Kinda suprised to see we already have 91S...

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38333
1331. PensacolaDoug
1:21 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Does anyone track southern hemispheric cyclones. the season's coming up.



I remember that one in the South Atl a couple of years ago. Hit Brazil. It was cool rotatating the wrong direction and all that.
There no organization forcasting for that basin so it had no name. The only other record of a storm in that part of the world was an event (not well documented) in the 1930's
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
1330. cybergrump
1:20 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
talking about fred he seems to be moving away from the ULL and wind shear is low also i see there is not as much dry air as before so ex fred need to be watched.
Member Since: September 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
1329. Grothar
1:19 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
I give FRED a 50% chance of a comeback! He still has a strong 850mb vorticity. Divergence and some Convergence. Now he is starting to fire Thunderstorms near the left over center....Comeback coming......now im ready to get beat up by everyone i'm sure....LOL


Tampa, if you believe it say it. On this blog you will knocked for either view, so what makes the difference. Stand up for your opinion!!

The only reason I don't, is afraid I might get yelled at!! lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26558
1328. Tazmanian
1:18 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Reads like the forecaster on the latest TWD is getting a little frustrated...

"TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 23W/24W
AT 17/0000 UTC WAS NOT ALL THAT EASY TO DISCERN IN MY OPINION
AT 16/1800 UTC IN THE THEN-CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
IT CONTINUES TO BE AS NON-EVIDENT NOW AS IT WAS TWELVE HOURS
AGO. I REALLY DO NOT KNOW WHAT PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT FOR THIS
ONE.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING BUT STILL
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W.
THESE CLOUDS AND WHATEVER AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DO NOT
VERIFY OR AUTHENTICATE THE EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE."

And what they say about Freddie....

"THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS THE LAST REMNANT OF FRED IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 20N TO
28N."



read the two that IKE posted



give it UP fred is dead in thw water the nhc is giveing up onit has well


time too move ON
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1327. TampaSpin
1:17 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
The loop at 1303....xFRED is located at 24N 59W
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1326. reedzone
1:16 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Also, Fred is still off and on blowing convection, this shows me that it's a fighter and it can regenerate if it gets into a much more favorable environment. Out for now.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
1325. Tazmanian
1:15 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting IKE:


No. I think there will be at least a couple of more systems.

I think September is likely to go without any more named systems in the Atlantic.

I think it would be in October before another named system happens.



or if it dos
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1324. reedzone
1:14 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Freds remnants are still there, so Fred is NOT dead. Yet, the circulation is gone.. If it can get into favorable conditions and move more away from the ULL, it can regenerate.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
1323. IKE
1:14 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:



IKE do you think hurricane season is overe???


No. I think there will be at least a couple of more systems.

I think September is likely to go without any more named systems in the Atlantic.

I think it would be in October before another named system happens.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1322. TampaSpin
1:13 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Interesting stats for the season....the 2 systems that were hurricanes in the Atlantic both became hurricanes east of 45 west.

There has been no hurricane to make it beyond 69 west this season.

I give Fred a 100% chance of a comeback...in 2015.

2009 Fred is dead. Has been dead since September 12th.


Now come on IKE i expected at least 110% out of you....LOL....j/k..man!
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1321. WxLogic
1:12 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Good morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4978
1320. Tazmanian
1:11 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Interesting stats for the season....the 2 systems that were hurricanes in the Atlantic both became hurricanes east of 45 west.

There has been no hurricane to make it beyond 69 west this season.

I give Fred a 100% chance of a comeback...in 2015.

2009 Fred is dead. Has been dead since September 12th.



IKE do you think hurricane season is overe???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1319. IKE
1:09 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Interesting stats for the season....the 2 systems that were hurricanes in the Atlantic both became hurricanes east of 45 west.

There has been no hurricane to make it beyond 69 west this season.

I give Fred a 100% chance of a comeback...in 2015.

2009 Fred is dead. Has been dead since September 12th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1318. Tazmanian
1:09 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
I give FRED a 50% chance of a comeback! He still has a strong 850mb vorticity. Divergence and some Convergence. Now he is starting to fire Thunderstorms near the left over center....Comeback coming......now im ready to get beat up by everyone i'm sure....LOL




that dos not mean any thing this be come it has a strong 850mb vorticity dos not mean it will come back you have too have the right wind shear for any thing too come back



give it UP all fred if dead and thr nhc gave up on him has well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1317. Nolehead
1:07 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
1314. foggymyst 1:03 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Go Canes.. (UM that is)


gotta give it too ya'll, great game and tonight should be a good 1 also.
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1932
1316. Nolehead
1:08 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
you obviously didn't look at the latest AVN satellite the carribbean mess is all but gone

um...obviously you don't know where the carribean is...might want to look again.
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1932
1315. TampaSpin
1:04 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
I give FRED a 50% chance of a comeback! He still has a strong 850mb vorticity. Divergence and some Convergence. Now he is starting to fire Thunderstorms near the left over center....Comeback coming......now im ready to get beat up by everyone i'm sure....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1314. foggymyst
1:03 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Go Canes.. (UM that is)
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1313. tropics21
1:01 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Quoting Nolehead:
I'm just amazed how the ex-fred has even had any convection left after visiting almost the whole eastern atl..lol..granted it's not much (so far) but it could be funny if it does come back after all the experts had it dead. the carrib mess is just that alot of mess, but it does have a chance...not that i'm no way near any expert, just a novice who loves this time of year...
you obviously didn't look at the latest AVN satellite the carribbean mess is all but gone
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
1312. TampaTom
1:00 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
An interesting point for discussion...

The 1995 season started after a few decades of below average activity in the Atlantic. Then, here comes 19 named systems and the next ten years are crazy busy, culminating in the adventure that is known as 2005.

Forecasters have pointed to 1995 and said that what started that one year marked the entry into a multi-decadal phase of increased activity. Basically, it's like 1995 was the 'switch' that was flipped. Very few people called for that level of activity...

Could it be that the cycle isn't multi-decadal, and that the 2009 season might be the 'switch' that gets flipped to less activity?

If so, what do you believe that will that mean for hurricane education, coastal development, insurance, etc?
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
1311. Nolehead
1:00 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
1307. KerryInNOLA 12:53 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Fred is surely dead. NHC gives it 0% chance. End of Fred wishcasting.


lol no wishcasting... just saying what i see on the sat is all...sorry but the NHC isn't always right you know...they are good don't get me wrong but we all know....just saying that it would be funny if it's not dead is all. so i have no "shields up" so blast me if ya'll want to....lol
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1932
1310. Cavin Rawlins
12:58 PM GMT on September 17, 2009
Does anyone track southern hemispheric cyclones. the season's coming up.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.