A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 15, 2009

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The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to generate sporadic bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity over the middle Atlantic Ocean. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Dry air and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots today and Wednesday will continue to prevent regeneration of Fred. By Thursday, the chances for regeneration of Fred increase, since wind shear near Fred's remains will fall below 20 knots. However, continued high wind shear and dry air over the next two days will further disrupt the remains of Fred, and there may not be enough left of the storm to regenerate from by the time the wind shear drops. The NOGAPS model forecasts that Fred could regenerate by Sunday, when the remains of the storm will be approaching the Bahama Islands.

Satellite imagery shows a small circulation associated with a tropical wave about 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands. Heavy thunderstorms activity has increased in this region over the past day. However, wind shear is near 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and shear will increase to near 30 knots as the wave progresses west-northwest into a band of high wind shear that lies to its north. It is unlikely that this wave can develop into a tropical depression this week, and NHC is giving it a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from the Bahamas northeastward. Anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature, and would likely move northeastward out to sea.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week.


Figure 1. The remains of Hurricane Fred (left) appears as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the northwest side. A tropical wave is 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands (right), off the coast of Africa. This wave is probably under too much wind shear to develop.

A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later
The events of September 15, 1989, have affected me more deeply than those of any other day in my life. The fifteen members of our crew very nearly became the first of Hurricane Hugo's many victims, and I am still grappling twenty years later with the emotional fallout from the experience. (If you are troubled by a traumatic experience, you may want to consider EMDR therapy, which I found to be helpful). The process of writing the story of that flight was also very therapeutic, and I worked intermittently for six years on the story while I was working towards my Ph.D. For those of you who haven't read it, do so! I worked very hard on it, and it is a remarkable story.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 15, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

The Hurricane Hunters often carry reporters and camera crews on their flights, and the unlucky soul on our flight through Hurricane Hugo was young Janice Griffith of the Barbados Sun newspaper. Her account:

Horror of Hugo's Eye
TO a young reporter, with perhaps more journalistic curiosity than is good for her, it seemed a chance for a good story. To others, who were quick to tell me so, a flight into the centre of a powerful and dangerous hurricane was "sheer madness".

In the end, my journey Friday on a "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft with a hardened, professional crew was nerve-shattering, awesome, and unforgettable. When we limped back into Grantley Adams International after a beating from nature's fury in the form of Hurricane Hugo, I had my story. But I also had to agree that I must have been crazy to have gone in the first place.

Not that I wasn't forewarned.

You sure you want to go?" Dr. James McFadden, manager of the airborne science programmes of the United States Department of Commerce and head of the team asked when I raised the subject following their arrival from their Miami base on Thursday night. "It can be a very dangerous trip".

I wasn't fazed. After all, I'd flown a lot on commercial aircraft, from LIAT to large jumbo jets, and these hurricane hunter were experts who, I was assured, had been in the business of tracking storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean for a dozen years or more. Some had even been at it for 18.

They'd all been through and gone into the eyes of dozens of hurricanes and come back to tell the tale. Not even apprehensive as I, the only woman along with 10 men, boarded just before noon Friday and was shown to one of the four seats in the cockpit, just behind pilot Gerry McKim.

No hostess coming through with complimentary drinks here--or clicking on a seat belt. I was harnessed in like an infant in the rear seat of a car, waist and shoulders securely strapped. "Just in case", I was told.

While I observed, wide-eyed, everyone went about his business with the facility of someone who has done it all before a hundred times over--the pilot and co-pilot, Lowell Genzlinger, the flight engineer, the navigator, the weather experts. Everyone.

Calming effect
Their efficiency had a calming effect and the first half-hour or so, as we headed northeast to investigate and report on the details of Hugo's size and power, was no rougher than any commercial flight I've been on.

But then the sky began to close in with heavy, dark clouds and the 14-year old turboprop plane began to take the kind of buffeting it must have done several times during similar sorties.

The crew treated it all as a matter of course, getting on with their duties, checking radar and charts, communicating their information to headquarters in Miami, doing the other chores that seemed to keep everyone busy.

My notebook tells me we caught up with Hugo at 1:28 pm. For the next hour or so, I wondered why we ever tried--and I got the distinct impression almost everyone aboard wondered that too.

We were surrounded by clouds a dark gray, almost blue, color. The rain pelted down on the fuselage with an intensity that was deafening, like torrential rain on a galvanized roof and with a force that, it was later discovered, burst a small hole in the roof of the fuselage. When it was visible, the sea was almost black, like bubbling tar.

The computer print-out that had registered the wind speed from the time we took off peaked at 185 mph around this time.

We entered the eye--the area of low pressure that is completely calm and marks the centre of the hurricane--at an altitude of about 5,000 feet. Suddenly, my stomach seemed to become detached from my body as as the place dropped, I was told later, to 1,500 feet.

All hell seemed to break loose around and back of me. Briefcases, cups, soda-cans, books, anything unsecured came clattering down. The air conditioning shut down as did the radar and the weather computer. I just gripped the nearest arm and held on for dear life, realizing now why we had all been strapped in so tightly.

"That's unusual", flight engineer Steve Wade said when McKim and Genzlinger got back control of their plane. His attempt at sounding cool was father futile.

Dr. McFadden, a stocky man with gray beard and spectacles, came through, checking on us. He was visibly shaken.

"Everyone alright?" he inquired. We were but his face mirrored his concern when he told me: "This is the worst experience in all of our years going into a hurricane".

Soon there was to be even more. It was discovered that engine No. 3--the near right-side--had conked out. The pilots reported it was on fire and they had to shut it down. Another one was working but not at full capacity.

My life, I knew, rested in the skilled and experienced hands, and heads, of those in control of this wonderful piece of machinery. But, to tell the truth, I was never overcome by fear or panic. Somehow, I sensed all would be well.

Perhaps if I'd known more it would have been different, for we still had to find our way back out of the eye, to penetrate the wall again, and to gain elevation. To do that, on reduced power, meant jettisoning 7,000 of our 10,000 pounds of fuel to lighten the load and circling for an eternal hour while this was done.

Finally, a "weak spot" was found in the cloud formation and we could make an exit from the prison of the eye where we had been trapped for a frightening hour. Around us, winds were now registering 155 knots, and the plane was still being hammered by the weather.

But we were out of the eye and Dr. McFadden, in jubilant relief, exclaimed: "Let's get out of here". He echoed the feeling of everyone aboard.

The system engineer, Schricker ("that's it, don't worry about the first name", he said when I pressed) was more explicit. "I've been flying for 18 years and I don't think I want to fly again," he said.

As we got out of Hugo's clutches and left him to make his way towards the eastern Caribbean, Dr. McFadden put the experience in perspective for me. "You didn't really know what you went through," he said as we headed back to Grantley Adams, itching to back on Terra Firma. "We almost didn't get out of the eye. We almost didn't make it. It was a serious situation".

I believed him--and couldn't help wonder at the bravery of these men who so frequently risk their lives so that others may be saved from the destruction of the storms that head across the Atlantic annually between June and November.

They were working at Grantley Adams yesterday on getting that engine back into shape so that they could be ready the next time another one comes along.

They must be crazy!


Figure 3. An account of the September 15, 1989 flight through Hurricane Hugo posted by reporter Janice Griffith in the Barbados Sun newspaper.

Comments on Janice's story
The rain didn't really punch a hole the fuselage of our airplane as Janice reported. Also, we penetrated the eyewall at 1,500 feet, and dropped to 880 feet during the extreme turbulence in the eyewall. Other than that, Janice has the facts pretty well in hand, particularly the "They must be crazy!" part. Three of us--myself, radio operator Tom Nunn, and electronic engineer Terry Schricker--never flew again on a hurricane hunter mission. However, four members of that flight--Hurricane Field Program Manager Dr. Jim McFadden, Chief Systems Engineer Alan Goldstein, Navigator (now flight meteorologist) Sean White, and the director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, Frank Marks--continue to fly into hurricanes to this day.

I caught up with Janice Griffith via email last year, when I invited her to a "Hurricane Hugo survivors luncheon" for the twelve people from that flight who are still alive (alas, radio operator Tom Nunn, electronic engineer Neil Rain, and chief scientist Dr. Bob Burpee have passed on). Six of us got together at a hurricane conference in Orlando. Janice is still working as a reporter in Barbados, and couldn't make it. Her email to me:

"Nice Hearing from you.
Well after that trip into the eye of Hurricane Hugo,
I certainly will not be going on another.
We almost lost our lives.
And whenever I think about it...I just get some shivers".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Melagoo:
Super Typhoon Choi-Wan

Link

Those tiny Islands must be taking a severe beating


Excuse my lack of knowlege...What islands are those and are they populated?
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Thanks Doc! Incredible!
Good Afternoon all!
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I've been reading Dr. Master's comments for 5 years now and have nothing but the greatest respect for him as a meteorologist. I can now add another layer of respect for his willingness to confess to being traumatized and the power of EMDR. It is really one of the best methods available for recovery from trauma and thank you Dr. Masters for letting people know about it - it is indeed life changing if you are struggling.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Highly UNLIKELY!


Vox vocis bardus fatur!
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A harrowing flight I can see why he would stop after that expericance. PTSD really effected him I see, it is tough to get over it i've seen some bad cases of it and i'm not even a doctor, good to see Dr.M pulled throguh.

Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3778
Looking thru some file Images this morning after reading the Above entry I found this Image from a NOAA File.



Its the inside of a P-3 NOAA HH,and looking at the socks and other clothes it may be from Jeffs Flight into Hugo.

As I read the entry I was thinking how these Near Death experiences can change someones perspective on Life in General.
Certainly it was a Defining Moment in Dr. Masters Life,no doubt.

Were all Lucky to be a part of the Banter and one of the best things I like about the wunderground here is,folks sharing their experiences with the Great,And Powerful Storm of Nature,Called the Hurricane.


Jeff Masters aboard the NOAA P-3





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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Super Typhoon Choi-Wan now looks like a complete monster on satellite infrared imagery. Just amazing to watch right now. Does anyone know what Choi-Wan means?

Choi-wan is Chinese for colourful cloud, and is also the name of a housing estate in Hong Kong, whose weather observatory contributed Choi-wan to the list of tropical cyclone names.
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After the howling of Typhoon Koppu made for a terrible sleep last night, I'm glad Super Typhoon Choi-Wan isn't headed this way.
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Outflow is improving on the western side of the storm now and convection of the CDO is almost completely circular. He has greatly improved over the past 12 hours after completing his eyewall replacement cycle.
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Super Typhoon Choi-Wan now looks like a complete monster on satellite infrared imagery. Just amazing to watch right now. Does anyone know what Choi-Wan means?
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Thanks so much Dr. Master. I read you wonderful and scary account of Hugo last year and talking about it now still sends chills.
Have a great and quiet day.
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Hmm.. looks like The HHC is starting to get a tad more optimistic about Fred's chances.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT.

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Wow, Doc...

Hat's off to you and the rest of the crew!
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Super Typhoon Choi-Wan

Link

Those tiny Islands must be taking a severe beating
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And tomorrow is 6 years after Hurricane Isabel made a direct hit at my house, massive damage.
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Great story. Glad you lived to tell about it.
I sent the post traumatic stress disorder site info to my son who is on active duty.
Thanks!
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Thanks for the update and the continued story on HUGO
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nice update doc thanks have a good day enjoy the quiet season we are on the home stretch now with 2 months 2weeks to go
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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters and the great story.
Remembering Hurricane Frederick 30 years ago Sunday, I was only 9 will he came in but that will be one storm that I will never forget. Everyone have a great day.
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185 mph winds then dropped to 880 feet and stayed in the eye of Hugo for an hour?
A long enough hour to last the rest of one's life.
Needless to say, once JM returned, he proposed!
Best Regards and congratulations.
Will be interested to read more.
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Chilling story Doc, thanks for sharing and bringing hugo to life for those of us youngsters who werent around to experience it.
So many people, especially young think there invincible. Your account just goes to show no one is! Any loss of life 1- 5000 is a loss.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Good morning Dr. Masters! Thanks for all you do, all you teach us, from the avid weather watchers, like myself to the professionals, such as yourself!

Be blessed! Keep up the good work!!

Bob Bordonaro
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Great story Doc!! Thanks for sharing. With over 5000 hours in P-3s when I retired from the Navy in '89, I have some understanding of what you went through. That airplane is a tough little bomber but it sure rides hard. Not like the Connie or the Herc with their long, flexible wings. Yes, I am old enough to have flown the Connie. It is my favorite airplane. I must admit that I had several experiences that made me think twice about getting back in the airplane. I just loved flying so much that I had to.
Glad it all turned out well for you.
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41. SBG
I have a friend who flies storms for NOAA as a meteorogolist like Dr. Masters did. He also has the same modesty as Dr. Masters in not recognizing that he and everyone who has/does do that ARE TRUE HEROES!! He did a presentation ( in full flight gear) once for my daughter's second grade class and every kid including this 40 year old who was as enthralled as they were hung on his EVERY WORD. To all of our her hurricane hunters, I say THANK YOU.
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Good Morning Everyone and thanks Dr. Master. PS: Trinidad still isn't ready for a hurricane even after 20 years.
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Sounds like flying into a hurricane would be a blast! NOOOOT!
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Thx Doc... and good morning...
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33. Choi Wan is too far north to significantly impact Saipan. There is a shot it could hit Iwo Jima, but its not a big chance at this point.

It is definitely a monster of a storm... near-perfect satellite presentation.
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I remember being in Barbados waiting for Hugo to past close to us, but it missed us completely. Good account by Janice. I'm sure she'll never forget that experience. Especially from someone coming from suh a small island.
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also, if the 903 reading above is correct, choi wan is now tied for 57th most intense tropical storm... just before katrina... another 10mb will bring it into the top 30.. does anyone think this can grow more and reach monstrous size?

i'm not saying it will threaten japan that much because the forecast has is shifting away from the islands and maybe giving them a little brush... but still?
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choi wan is one hell of a storm... able to produce incredible amounts of rainfall and extreme wind damage... wonder what Saipan is at?
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Quoting leftovers:
em>must say i use to wear those short shorts dr masters too when i was younger. kind of scary thinking about it you all remember what hugo did to st croix after a direct hit?



me too but you wouldnt catch me dead in a pair of em today
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We will be talking quite a bit about Fred by the end of this week. This storm is nowhere near finish.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2009 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 17:56:48 N Lon : 144:45:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 903.1mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.9 7.0 7.0

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
SEP 15th and all is well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Just read Dr. Master story on Hugo. Not suprised at all. I went through David on a Coast Guard Cutter on a rescue mission.

What IS AMAZING is that people ignore MANDATORY evac notices. Then expect help in the middle of it all, then too many die!

If you are TOLD (not asked) then leave!
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guys mode runs are this mode runs that cant give you a good forcast and half of the time they are nevere right
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting watcher123:
18:

That steering part of that front is too far north. If you look on the satellite, the strongest winds don't come any farther south than about 30N, which isn't far enough south to pick up Fred, which is still around 20n.

The stuff on it's tail end in the bahamas is going to get cut off and either get absorbed by Fred, or else move to the NE.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters, and thank you for your service with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters!
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well wish evere way you look fred is going too have too get pass that cold front if it wants too make it too Bahama Islands or it will run in too it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
am talking about this cold front that will pick up fred and take it oot its far to the S too where it will pick it up

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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