A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 15, 2009

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The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to generate sporadic bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity over the middle Atlantic Ocean. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Dry air and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots today and Wednesday will continue to prevent regeneration of Fred. By Thursday, the chances for regeneration of Fred increase, since wind shear near Fred's remains will fall below 20 knots. However, continued high wind shear and dry air over the next two days will further disrupt the remains of Fred, and there may not be enough left of the storm to regenerate from by the time the wind shear drops. The NOGAPS model forecasts that Fred could regenerate by Sunday, when the remains of the storm will be approaching the Bahama Islands.

Satellite imagery shows a small circulation associated with a tropical wave about 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands. Heavy thunderstorms activity has increased in this region over the past day. However, wind shear is near 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and shear will increase to near 30 knots as the wave progresses west-northwest into a band of high wind shear that lies to its north. It is unlikely that this wave can develop into a tropical depression this week, and NHC is giving it a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from the Bahamas northeastward. Anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature, and would likely move northeastward out to sea.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week.


Figure 1. The remains of Hurricane Fred (left) appears as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the northwest side. A tropical wave is 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands (right), off the coast of Africa. This wave is probably under too much wind shear to develop.

A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later
The events of September 15, 1989, have affected me more deeply than those of any other day in my life. The fifteen members of our crew very nearly became the first of Hurricane Hugo's many victims, and I am still grappling twenty years later with the emotional fallout from the experience. (If you are troubled by a traumatic experience, you may want to consider EMDR therapy, which I found to be helpful). The process of writing the story of that flight was also very therapeutic, and I worked intermittently for six years on the story while I was working towards my Ph.D. For those of you who haven't read it, do so! I worked very hard on it, and it is a remarkable story.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 15, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

The Hurricane Hunters often carry reporters and camera crews on their flights, and the unlucky soul on our flight through Hurricane Hugo was young Janice Griffith of the Barbados Sun newspaper. Her account:

Horror of Hugo's Eye
TO a young reporter, with perhaps more journalistic curiosity than is good for her, it seemed a chance for a good story. To others, who were quick to tell me so, a flight into the centre of a powerful and dangerous hurricane was "sheer madness".

In the end, my journey Friday on a "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft with a hardened, professional crew was nerve-shattering, awesome, and unforgettable. When we limped back into Grantley Adams International after a beating from nature's fury in the form of Hurricane Hugo, I had my story. But I also had to agree that I must have been crazy to have gone in the first place.

Not that I wasn't forewarned.

You sure you want to go?" Dr. James McFadden, manager of the airborne science programmes of the United States Department of Commerce and head of the team asked when I raised the subject following their arrival from their Miami base on Thursday night. "It can be a very dangerous trip".

I wasn't fazed. After all, I'd flown a lot on commercial aircraft, from LIAT to large jumbo jets, and these hurricane hunter were experts who, I was assured, had been in the business of tracking storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean for a dozen years or more. Some had even been at it for 18.

They'd all been through and gone into the eyes of dozens of hurricanes and come back to tell the tale. Not even apprehensive as I, the only woman along with 10 men, boarded just before noon Friday and was shown to one of the four seats in the cockpit, just behind pilot Gerry McKim.

No hostess coming through with complimentary drinks here--or clicking on a seat belt. I was harnessed in like an infant in the rear seat of a car, waist and shoulders securely strapped. "Just in case", I was told.

While I observed, wide-eyed, everyone went about his business with the facility of someone who has done it all before a hundred times over--the pilot and co-pilot, Lowell Genzlinger, the flight engineer, the navigator, the weather experts. Everyone.

Calming effect
Their efficiency had a calming effect and the first half-hour or so, as we headed northeast to investigate and report on the details of Hugo's size and power, was no rougher than any commercial flight I've been on.

But then the sky began to close in with heavy, dark clouds and the 14-year old turboprop plane began to take the kind of buffeting it must have done several times during similar sorties.

The crew treated it all as a matter of course, getting on with their duties, checking radar and charts, communicating their information to headquarters in Miami, doing the other chores that seemed to keep everyone busy.

My notebook tells me we caught up with Hugo at 1:28 pm. For the next hour or so, I wondered why we ever tried--and I got the distinct impression almost everyone aboard wondered that too.

We were surrounded by clouds a dark gray, almost blue, color. The rain pelted down on the fuselage with an intensity that was deafening, like torrential rain on a galvanized roof and with a force that, it was later discovered, burst a small hole in the roof of the fuselage. When it was visible, the sea was almost black, like bubbling tar.

The computer print-out that had registered the wind speed from the time we took off peaked at 185 mph around this time.

We entered the eye--the area of low pressure that is completely calm and marks the centre of the hurricane--at an altitude of about 5,000 feet. Suddenly, my stomach seemed to become detached from my body as as the place dropped, I was told later, to 1,500 feet.

All hell seemed to break loose around and back of me. Briefcases, cups, soda-cans, books, anything unsecured came clattering down. The air conditioning shut down as did the radar and the weather computer. I just gripped the nearest arm and held on for dear life, realizing now why we had all been strapped in so tightly.

"That's unusual", flight engineer Steve Wade said when McKim and Genzlinger got back control of their plane. His attempt at sounding cool was father futile.

Dr. McFadden, a stocky man with gray beard and spectacles, came through, checking on us. He was visibly shaken.

"Everyone alright?" he inquired. We were but his face mirrored his concern when he told me: "This is the worst experience in all of our years going into a hurricane".

Soon there was to be even more. It was discovered that engine No. 3--the near right-side--had conked out. The pilots reported it was on fire and they had to shut it down. Another one was working but not at full capacity.

My life, I knew, rested in the skilled and experienced hands, and heads, of those in control of this wonderful piece of machinery. But, to tell the truth, I was never overcome by fear or panic. Somehow, I sensed all would be well.

Perhaps if I'd known more it would have been different, for we still had to find our way back out of the eye, to penetrate the wall again, and to gain elevation. To do that, on reduced power, meant jettisoning 7,000 of our 10,000 pounds of fuel to lighten the load and circling for an eternal hour while this was done.

Finally, a "weak spot" was found in the cloud formation and we could make an exit from the prison of the eye where we had been trapped for a frightening hour. Around us, winds were now registering 155 knots, and the plane was still being hammered by the weather.

But we were out of the eye and Dr. McFadden, in jubilant relief, exclaimed: "Let's get out of here". He echoed the feeling of everyone aboard.

The system engineer, Schricker ("that's it, don't worry about the first name", he said when I pressed) was more explicit. "I've been flying for 18 years and I don't think I want to fly again," he said.

As we got out of Hugo's clutches and left him to make his way towards the eastern Caribbean, Dr. McFadden put the experience in perspective for me. "You didn't really know what you went through," he said as we headed back to Grantley Adams, itching to back on Terra Firma. "We almost didn't get out of the eye. We almost didn't make it. It was a serious situation".

I believed him--and couldn't help wonder at the bravery of these men who so frequently risk their lives so that others may be saved from the destruction of the storms that head across the Atlantic annually between June and November.

They were working at Grantley Adams yesterday on getting that engine back into shape so that they could be ready the next time another one comes along.

They must be crazy!


Figure 3. An account of the September 15, 1989 flight through Hurricane Hugo posted by reporter Janice Griffith in the Barbados Sun newspaper.

Comments on Janice's story
The rain didn't really punch a hole the fuselage of our airplane as Janice reported. Also, we penetrated the eyewall at 1,500 feet, and dropped to 880 feet during the extreme turbulence in the eyewall. Other than that, Janice has the facts pretty well in hand, particularly the "They must be crazy!" part. Three of us--myself, radio operator Tom Nunn, and electronic engineer Terry Schricker--never flew again on a hurricane hunter mission. However, four members of that flight--Hurricane Field Program Manager Dr. Jim McFadden, Chief Systems Engineer Alan Goldstein, Navigator (now flight meteorologist) Sean White, and the director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, Frank Marks--continue to fly into hurricanes to this day.

I caught up with Janice Griffith via email last year, when I invited her to a "Hurricane Hugo survivors luncheon" for the twelve people from that flight who are still alive (alas, radio operator Tom Nunn, electronic engineer Neil Rain, and chief scientist Dr. Bob Burpee have passed on). Six of us got together at a hurricane conference in Orlando. Janice is still working as a reporter in Barbados, and couldn't make it. Her email to me:

"Nice Hearing from you.
Well after that trip into the eye of Hurricane Hugo,
I certainly will not be going on another.
We almost lost our lives.
And whenever I think about it...I just get some shivers".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Weather456:



so their gonna upgrade it?


They have it classified as a low, so I guess its back to invest status.

AL 07 2009091518 BEST 0 201N 467W 30 1010 LO
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Disturbance Fred 18Z SHIPS
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 151842
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC TUE SEP 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090915 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090915 1800 090916 0600 090916 1800 090917 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 46.7W 20.7N 49.8W 21.9N 52.9W 22.9N 55.9W
BAMD 20.1N 46.7W 20.9N 49.0W 21.7N 51.6W 22.3N 54.2W
BAMM 20.1N 46.7W 20.9N 49.3W 21.8N 52.3W 22.6N 55.3W
LBAR 20.1N 46.7W 20.9N 49.4W 21.8N 52.4W 22.5N 55.6W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090917 1800 090918 1800 090919 1800 090920 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 58.9W 25.9N 63.7W 27.7N 67.2W 29.2N 71.0W
BAMD 22.6N 56.8W 23.0N 61.9W 23.3N 66.3W 23.4N 70.1W
BAMM 23.3N 58.2W 24.2N 63.6W 25.0N 68.2W 25.6N 72.4W
LBAR 23.1N 58.6W 24.2N 64.4W 23.2N 68.2W 22.2N 69.3W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 56KTS 59KTS
DSHP 48KTS 52KTS 56KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 46.7W DIRCUR = 283DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 40.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN





so their gonna upgrade it?
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With such a well-developed Typhoon as Choi-Wan, you will not be surprise to the see a very classic upper anticyclone.



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Quoting seminolesfan:
Did you just create the BeatleRoll there Pat?


Well, I believe I may have.
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Quoting Patrap:
The 68' "Frost"
Did you just create the BeatleRoll there Pat?
Link
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000
WHXX01 KWBC 151842
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC TUE SEP 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FRED (AL072009) 20090915 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090915 1800 090916 0600 090916 1800 090917 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 46.7W 20.7N 49.8W 21.9N 52.9W 22.9N 55.9W
BAMD 20.1N 46.7W 20.9N 49.0W 21.7N 51.6W 22.3N 54.2W
BAMM 20.1N 46.7W 20.9N 49.3W 21.8N 52.3W 22.6N 55.3W
LBAR 20.1N 46.7W 20.9N 49.4W 21.8N 52.4W 22.5N 55.6W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090917 1800 090918 1800 090919 1800 090920 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 58.9W 25.9N 63.7W 27.7N 67.2W 29.2N 71.0W
BAMD 22.6N 56.8W 23.0N 61.9W 23.3N 66.3W 23.4N 70.1W
BAMM 23.3N 58.2W 24.2N 63.6W 25.0N 68.2W 25.6N 72.4W
LBAR 23.1N 58.6W 24.2N 64.4W 23.2N 68.2W 22.2N 69.3W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 56KTS 59KTS
DSHP 48KTS 52KTS 56KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 46.7W DIRCUR = 283DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 40.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


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The 68' "Frost"
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Most models agree that this trough will amplify and cause Choi-Wan to recurve south of Japan island

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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Shaped like a watermelon

surprised there wasnt a Gallagher Joke there by someone lol

get the Sledge-O-matic on that thing before it blows up lol
No one wanted to deprive you of the opportunity. :)
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Quoting presslord:
...and...a girl with kaleidiscope eyes....

I have been so tempted to post lyrics from Fool on a Hill when a certain someone is present and making an behind of himself...

"Well on the way,
Head in a cloud,
The man of a thousand voices talking perfectly loud
But nobody ever hear him,
or the sound he appears to make,
and he never seems to notice,

But the fool on the hill,
Sees the sun going down,
And the eyes in his head,
See the world spinning 'round.

And nobody seems to like him,
they can tell what he wants to do,
and he never shows his feelings,..."
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Early this morning - Choi-Wan rapid intensification



30 minutes ago almost looks like Katrina



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Shaped like a watermelon

surprised there wasnt a Gallagher Joke there by someone lol

get the Sledge-O-matic on that thing before it blows up lol
Even though I am encouraged by the forecasters I respect.
I will be more relaxed once FredEx gets above my latitude (22N)
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Quoting Raildavid:


I recall that the early fly by wire aircraft were not pilot friendly because the pilot lost the 'feel' through the controls. (I recall this may have been the early AirBus aircraft.) That 'feel' provided information to the pilot that the designers did not realize. Once some 'feel' was returned to the controls, the pilot/aircraft performance improved.


That is still one of the problems with remote aircraft, especially in inclement weather. Imagine driving a car remotely in a thunderstorm. You wouldn't be able to feel the wind pushing you, the tires starting to hydroplane, the ruts in the road grabbing your tires, etc. Same principle. That being said, computers can sense and react extremely fast to available input, but they still don't get the "feel" for whats going on. Can almost be described as a "sixth sense" for some people.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey Flood, be careful. I'll start correcting your German.lol


Now now...let's not get ugly
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CRS...Yellow Submarine was a whole different trip...pun intended...
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Quoting Floodman:


No, but certainly a Beatles fan...and why not? LOL

That was some of the best music ever written to enjoy while undergoing "altered states of consciousness"


Hey Flood, be careful. I'll start correcting your German.lol
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67' Beatles invest
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Quoting Floodman:


No, but certainly a Beatles fan...and why not? LOL

That was some of the best music ever written to enjoy while undergoing "altered states of consciousness"


Slip of the typo! Why I remember slipping on my earphones, putting a LP on, and rolling.....
never mind!
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That was sopme

uh yep...
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Quoting Grothar:


Beetles fan are we?


No, but certainly a Beatles fan...and why not? LOL

That was some of the best music ever written to enjoy while undergoing "altered states of consciousness"
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this might mean nothing but is it just me or is there increase cloud formation over the southern caribbean islands with some circulation going on?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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TPC/TAFB 72 hour surface forecast. X Fred shown as a trough north of the Virgin Islands.


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Presslord...

You surely must understand...
If you can remember the 60's
you weren't there.

heh heh heh

CRS
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Quoting presslord:
Tangerine trees,,,marmalade skies...


Beetles fan are we?
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...and...a girl with kaleidiscope eyes....
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Tangerine trees,,,marmalade skies...
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Studies have been, and continue to be done on the pros and cons. One study I read (can't seem to find it on google) stated something to the effect that until the pilot at the joystick feels "in the theater of operation", the urgency needed for some decisions will be lacking. In other words, the adrenaline junkies are not as effective without the rush. Studies also suggest the human experience is necessary to get a real understanding of an event. (Those who have lived through a hurricane as I and many others here have can attest to that.)



I recall that the early fly by wire aircraft were not pilot friendly because the pilot lost the 'feel' through the controls. (I recall this may have been the early AirBus aircraft.) That 'feel' provided information to the pilot that the designers did not realize. Once some 'feel' was returned to the controls, the pilot/aircraft performance improved.
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I assure you, if I see Tangerine Skies I will quickly escape in my Yellow Submarine.
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Quoting btwntx08:
look how perfect choi-wan's eye is wow!!!


Typhoon Obi-Wan. :)

Sorry couldn't help it.
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Quoting IKE:
Invest #3 shaped like a watermelon...

Yellow watermelons, lol,LSD, anyone?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Quoting IKE:
Invest #3 shaped like a watermelon...



I guess that explains why the IGA here is having a sale on Watermelons tomorrow, as we are under #3.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Holy Crap!

Click to view a loop
Incredible display of natures power.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
125. IKE
Invest #3 shaped like a watermelon...

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NexSat Africa,Eastern Atlantic Wave,Loop
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Holy Crap!

Click to view a loop
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Serious multiple use of Yellow crayons at NHC

(We no longer need to "wonder where the yellow went.)

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Quoting PcolaDan:






I think she might kill me if she found out I was doing this in the main blog :)
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ABNT20 KNHC 151745
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED
LOCATED ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
119. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED
LOCATED ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I suspect exFred will have an orange circle at 2pm.


I'm not sure...

Shear is down because an Upper Level Low moved atop the remnant low from Fred.

This isn't conducive to tropical development typically.... Looking for ridging/anti-cylone aloft.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.