A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 15, 2009

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The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to generate sporadic bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity over the middle Atlantic Ocean. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Dry air and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots today and Wednesday will continue to prevent regeneration of Fred. By Thursday, the chances for regeneration of Fred increase, since wind shear near Fred's remains will fall below 20 knots. However, continued high wind shear and dry air over the next two days will further disrupt the remains of Fred, and there may not be enough left of the storm to regenerate from by the time the wind shear drops. The NOGAPS model forecasts that Fred could regenerate by Sunday, when the remains of the storm will be approaching the Bahama Islands.

Satellite imagery shows a small circulation associated with a tropical wave about 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands. Heavy thunderstorms activity has increased in this region over the past day. However, wind shear is near 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and shear will increase to near 30 knots as the wave progresses west-northwest into a band of high wind shear that lies to its north. It is unlikely that this wave can develop into a tropical depression this week, and NHC is giving it a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from the Bahamas northeastward. Anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature, and would likely move northeastward out to sea.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week.


Figure 1. The remains of Hurricane Fred (left) appears as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the northwest side. A tropical wave is 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands (right), off the coast of Africa. This wave is probably under too much wind shear to develop.

A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later
The events of September 15, 1989, have affected me more deeply than those of any other day in my life. The fifteen members of our crew very nearly became the first of Hurricane Hugo's many victims, and I am still grappling twenty years later with the emotional fallout from the experience. (If you are troubled by a traumatic experience, you may want to consider EMDR therapy, which I found to be helpful). The process of writing the story of that flight was also very therapeutic, and I worked intermittently for six years on the story while I was working towards my Ph.D. For those of you who haven't read it, do so! I worked very hard on it, and it is a remarkable story.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 15, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

The Hurricane Hunters often carry reporters and camera crews on their flights, and the unlucky soul on our flight through Hurricane Hugo was young Janice Griffith of the Barbados Sun newspaper. Her account:

Horror of Hugo's Eye
TO a young reporter, with perhaps more journalistic curiosity than is good for her, it seemed a chance for a good story. To others, who were quick to tell me so, a flight into the centre of a powerful and dangerous hurricane was "sheer madness".

In the end, my journey Friday on a "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft with a hardened, professional crew was nerve-shattering, awesome, and unforgettable. When we limped back into Grantley Adams International after a beating from nature's fury in the form of Hurricane Hugo, I had my story. But I also had to agree that I must have been crazy to have gone in the first place.

Not that I wasn't forewarned.

You sure you want to go?" Dr. James McFadden, manager of the airborne science programmes of the United States Department of Commerce and head of the team asked when I raised the subject following their arrival from their Miami base on Thursday night. "It can be a very dangerous trip".

I wasn't fazed. After all, I'd flown a lot on commercial aircraft, from LIAT to large jumbo jets, and these hurricane hunter were experts who, I was assured, had been in the business of tracking storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean for a dozen years or more. Some had even been at it for 18.

They'd all been through and gone into the eyes of dozens of hurricanes and come back to tell the tale. Not even apprehensive as I, the only woman along with 10 men, boarded just before noon Friday and was shown to one of the four seats in the cockpit, just behind pilot Gerry McKim.

No hostess coming through with complimentary drinks here--or clicking on a seat belt. I was harnessed in like an infant in the rear seat of a car, waist and shoulders securely strapped. "Just in case", I was told.

While I observed, wide-eyed, everyone went about his business with the facility of someone who has done it all before a hundred times over--the pilot and co-pilot, Lowell Genzlinger, the flight engineer, the navigator, the weather experts. Everyone.

Calming effect
Their efficiency had a calming effect and the first half-hour or so, as we headed northeast to investigate and report on the details of Hugo's size and power, was no rougher than any commercial flight I've been on.

But then the sky began to close in with heavy, dark clouds and the 14-year old turboprop plane began to take the kind of buffeting it must have done several times during similar sorties.

The crew treated it all as a matter of course, getting on with their duties, checking radar and charts, communicating their information to headquarters in Miami, doing the other chores that seemed to keep everyone busy.

My notebook tells me we caught up with Hugo at 1:28 pm. For the next hour or so, I wondered why we ever tried--and I got the distinct impression almost everyone aboard wondered that too.

We were surrounded by clouds a dark gray, almost blue, color. The rain pelted down on the fuselage with an intensity that was deafening, like torrential rain on a galvanized roof and with a force that, it was later discovered, burst a small hole in the roof of the fuselage. When it was visible, the sea was almost black, like bubbling tar.

The computer print-out that had registered the wind speed from the time we took off peaked at 185 mph around this time.

We entered the eye--the area of low pressure that is completely calm and marks the centre of the hurricane--at an altitude of about 5,000 feet. Suddenly, my stomach seemed to become detached from my body as as the place dropped, I was told later, to 1,500 feet.

All hell seemed to break loose around and back of me. Briefcases, cups, soda-cans, books, anything unsecured came clattering down. The air conditioning shut down as did the radar and the weather computer. I just gripped the nearest arm and held on for dear life, realizing now why we had all been strapped in so tightly.

"That's unusual", flight engineer Steve Wade said when McKim and Genzlinger got back control of their plane. His attempt at sounding cool was father futile.

Dr. McFadden, a stocky man with gray beard and spectacles, came through, checking on us. He was visibly shaken.

"Everyone alright?" he inquired. We were but his face mirrored his concern when he told me: "This is the worst experience in all of our years going into a hurricane".

Soon there was to be even more. It was discovered that engine No. 3--the near right-side--had conked out. The pilots reported it was on fire and they had to shut it down. Another one was working but not at full capacity.

My life, I knew, rested in the skilled and experienced hands, and heads, of those in control of this wonderful piece of machinery. But, to tell the truth, I was never overcome by fear or panic. Somehow, I sensed all would be well.

Perhaps if I'd known more it would have been different, for we still had to find our way back out of the eye, to penetrate the wall again, and to gain elevation. To do that, on reduced power, meant jettisoning 7,000 of our 10,000 pounds of fuel to lighten the load and circling for an eternal hour while this was done.

Finally, a "weak spot" was found in the cloud formation and we could make an exit from the prison of the eye where we had been trapped for a frightening hour. Around us, winds were now registering 155 knots, and the plane was still being hammered by the weather.

But we were out of the eye and Dr. McFadden, in jubilant relief, exclaimed: "Let's get out of here". He echoed the feeling of everyone aboard.

The system engineer, Schricker ("that's it, don't worry about the first name", he said when I pressed) was more explicit. "I've been flying for 18 years and I don't think I want to fly again," he said.

As we got out of Hugo's clutches and left him to make his way towards the eastern Caribbean, Dr. McFadden put the experience in perspective for me. "You didn't really know what you went through," he said as we headed back to Grantley Adams, itching to back on Terra Firma. "We almost didn't get out of the eye. We almost didn't make it. It was a serious situation".

I believed him--and couldn't help wonder at the bravery of these men who so frequently risk their lives so that others may be saved from the destruction of the storms that head across the Atlantic annually between June and November.

They were working at Grantley Adams yesterday on getting that engine back into shape so that they could be ready the next time another one comes along.

They must be crazy!


Figure 3. An account of the September 15, 1989 flight through Hurricane Hugo posted by reporter Janice Griffith in the Barbados Sun newspaper.

Comments on Janice's story
The rain didn't really punch a hole the fuselage of our airplane as Janice reported. Also, we penetrated the eyewall at 1,500 feet, and dropped to 880 feet during the extreme turbulence in the eyewall. Other than that, Janice has the facts pretty well in hand, particularly the "They must be crazy!" part. Three of us--myself, radio operator Tom Nunn, and electronic engineer Terry Schricker--never flew again on a hurricane hunter mission. However, four members of that flight--Hurricane Field Program Manager Dr. Jim McFadden, Chief Systems Engineer Alan Goldstein, Navigator (now flight meteorologist) Sean White, and the director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, Frank Marks--continue to fly into hurricanes to this day.

I caught up with Janice Griffith via email last year, when I invited her to a "Hurricane Hugo survivors luncheon" for the twelve people from that flight who are still alive (alas, radio operator Tom Nunn, electronic engineer Neil Rain, and chief scientist Dr. Bob Burpee have passed on). Six of us got together at a hurricane conference in Orlando. Janice is still working as a reporter in Barbados, and couldn't make it. Her email to me:

"Nice Hearing from you.
Well after that trip into the eye of Hurricane Hugo,
I certainly will not be going on another.
We almost lost our lives.
And whenever I think about it...I just get some shivers".

Jeff Masters

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1468. IKE
What I said about the GOM blob....

(1)"I smell an invest coming"... when pressures were dropping at buoy 42002...didn't happen.

(2)I gave it a "45-50% chance of developing"...didn't happen.

That's what I said about the GOM blob.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1467. hercj
weather 456, Any clue if the models predicting Fred's regeneration have any validity to them?
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Good Morning....The super-Typhoon is truly beauty in motion and as far as the Fred "debate", at least it's something to look at in the Atlantic Basin for the time being regardless of whether it can redevelop or not. Short term sheer does not seem to be an impediment at the moment, hence another try at some symmetry in the weak circulation, but dry air intrusion, and lack of any significant convection, is an issue with the "naked" coc tyring to hold on at the moment.
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CloudSat's image of Choi-Wan late Sept. 14 showed hot towers on both sides of the eyewall (bright red bands) in the Aqua satellite AMSR-E instrument 89 GHz image. Image also shows an enclosed eye wall (red circle) around the center with orange and red reflectivities (intense convection and precipitation) extending outwards.
Credit: NASA JPL/Colo. State
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1464. jipmg
CMC takes Fred as a TS or C1 hurricane towards FL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009091600&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
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Good Morning Everyone! Choi-wan is absolutely stunning. One thing I noticed this morning is the CMC and the GFS both take exFred into the gulf, with the CMC being more aggressive with it. At least that is what my untrained eyes see?? Any thoughts on it making it that far??

Definately bears watching, since he doesn't seem to want to go away!

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1460. amd
I think the only chance for tropical development in the next 5 to 10 days will be the western caribbean.

If the ULL weakens and pulls to the SW of the wave currently in the eastern caribbean, conditions may become favorable for the wave to develop.

In the western caribbean, pressures are relatively low now (1011 mb -1012 mb). Shear, for the first time all season, is low. And, if the ULL in the caribbean continues to move to the wsw, it will stay that way.

Fred is dead, has been dead for a few days (blowup of thunderstorms directly aided by a ULL is not cause for revival), and IMO, will stay dead.
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Quoting jipmg:


The upper level low is doing something to it, negatively, I dont know why, ive never seen a tropical low pull itself under an upper low


its on my blog.

Water vapour imagery indicate that Fred remains enveloped within upper cyclonic flow which is helping to produce some low shear but at the same time, causing dry air entrainment which is slowing development. I do not expect much development from Fred until that upper low weakens which is about 48 hrs.


What happened is that the upper that sheared Fred to bits, secluded and closed off and while it headed sw, Fred headed west. The two met in the current location. They are basically two separate features as you stated, its having negative consequences.
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Cloud cover has returned to ex-Fred which is never bad. How is the dry air situation as of right now?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
1457. jipmg
Quoting Weather456:




That's the thing I don't get. You gave the GOM mess last week more chance than Fred last night.

If Fred was in the GOM, you would not have said its dead. I have noticed this several times this season.

Third, Fred wasnt "dead" until this morning, so if anyone gave anybody heat for saying it before this morning, well I wouldnt blame them.

Fourth, I doubt Fred is completely "dead" as you stated since we have much time to watch it.


The upper level low is doing something to it, negatively, I dont know why, ive never seen a tropical low pull itself under an upper low
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That is a very solid cyclone

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Quoting adb42:
Whilst the Atlantic is quiet, I'd like to point to this supertyphoon, Choi-wan, which has just roared through the Northern Marianas with sustained winds of 140 knots or so.


it became a cat 5 just after leaving islands. It went through as a 140-150 mph, which is still very destructive. But I think the islands are sparsely populated.
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1454. adb42
Whilst the Atlantic is quiet, I'd like to point to this supertyphoon, Choi-wan, which has just roared through the Northern Marianas with sustained winds of 140 knots or so.
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Also everyone has the right to their opinion but sometimes you have to be responsible and be reasonable. Just because you don't like tropical systems or vice versa, it shouldn't cloud your judgment. It's only fair.
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Quoting IKE:
So much for Fred becoming a tropical storm anytime soon. I guess Dr. Masters was correct and took heat on here for it...Fred is dead.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ARE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED OVERNIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




That's the thing I don't get. You gave the GOM mess last week more chance than Fred last night.

If Fred was in the GOM, you would not have said its dead. I have noticed this several times this season.

Third, Fred wasnt "dead" until this morning, so if anyone gave anybody heat for saying it before this morning, well I wouldnt blame them.

Fourth, I doubt Fred is completely "dead" as you stated since we have much time to watch it.
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Good Morning again

Tropical Update
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1450. IKE
So much for Fred becoming a tropical storm anytime soon. I guess Dr. Masters was correct and took heat on here for it...Fred is dead.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ARE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED OVERNIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1449. JRRP
Link
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1448. IKE
Accuweather take....

"Last Update: 16-SEP-2009 07:06am EDT

There continues to be a few minor areas of concern across the Atlantic Basin this morning. The closest area of concern to the Unites States continues to be along an old frontal boundary which stretches from just north of Bermuda southwestward through the Bahamas. Low pressure has developed along the frontal boundary and is moving northeastward. Upper-level winds are not very favorable for tropical development; however, Bermuda will have to keep a close watch on this system as to where it may track. Depending how close this system moves from Bermuda, it may bring heavy rain to the island. Computer guidance does suggest that it will stay far enough west that the heaviest precipitation will miss them.

Another area of concern is currently over the open Atlantic about 750 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Satellite imagery continues to show showers and thunderstorms circulating around a low pressure system. This area of disturbed weather is associated with the remnants of what was once Fred. Conditions are somewhat favorable for development, but it will be slow to do so as it continues to move west-northwestward.

One last area that will need to be watched carefully is about 350 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms are disorganized but have persisted around a weak area of low pressure. If development were to occur, it would be slow. However, this system does bear watching over the next few days.

Considering that we are very close to the peak of hurricane season, at least according to climatology, the tropical Atlantic is extremely quiet right now. It also doesn't appear that the United States has too much to be concerned about as far as tropical weather for the next several days.


By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Andrew Ulrich."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
StormW, will Fred reach in time for that area since it will lift out pretty soon?
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Water content imagery show there is till a good amount of dry air entrained into the system which is now an open wave

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1444. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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yes 456 FRED is now an open wave, while there is a surface low with the wave at 13N 32W
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Back in a bit.

ex-Fred WILL NOT regenerate on his own.


What does "on his own" mean? You're killing me with mystery here.
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All I can say is WOW! What an eye to look at! I can't imagine what it would be like to witness a hurricane like that in the Atlantic, although its comparable to Hurricane Katrina in size I believe. WOW.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Fred should be re-classified as atleast 50% likely to redevelop.

look for Orange soon.

Fred's circulation is very evident and is tring to windup into its former self.


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TD 16 in the East Pacific

EP 16 2009091606 BEST 0 185N 1125W 30 1005
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It looks like Choi-Wan has gone through an EWRC, because last night before I went to bed his CDO was weakening at best with warm cloud tops, now this morning he has colder cloud tops now suggesting he is done going through the EWRC without interfering with his eye at all which is pretty strange, although his eye has been pretty big from the start.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
If you notice closely, there is a second band of moisture on the northwest side, which has begun to feed into the Freddy's circulation. The amount of dry air surrounding this system has also dramatically dropped overnight.

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WOW!!! Look at the size of that eye....I believe Choiwan went through the EWRC....
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Fred has open up to a wave

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The center of Choi-Wan didn't go over any of the populated islands in the Marianas. There is basically no population in all those tiny islands north of Saipan. The center looks like it passed at least 200 miles north of there so they were spared much damage I would think.
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1430. IKE
Quoting Catfish57:
T minus 14 days and counting for us in Texas. With the exception of one storm in 1949, there has not been any major hurricane hits for the Texas coast in the past 150 years after September 30.


Here's the extended discussion from H-town,Texas....

"LARGE SCALE PATTERN UNDERGOES MORE CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A
VERY BROAD SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH EVOLVES AND BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED BY MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BY SUNDAY AND MOISTURE
LEVELS RISE THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE DIFFULENT...WHILE
25H JET (UNDER BASE OF TROUGH) BETTER POSITIONS ITSELF OVER SE TX.
LEFT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY`S GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF WEAK DIFFULENCE AND
RRQ-POSITIONING. SURFACE FROPA TIMED FOR EARLY TUESDAY THUS...AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL FORCING IN A GT 2.0" PWAT ENVIRONMENT...HAVE CHANCE
POPS IN FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE BIT ON
THIS EARLY AUTUMN SEASON ENTRY OF A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS
TO COME ACROSS REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS OF NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EQUINOX AND WEATHER WILL BE CLOSELY TIMED...ENTERING THAT
FIRST DAY (LATE TUESDAY) WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AND GOING INTO THE
FIRST FULL DAY ON A VERY SEASONABLE NOTE."

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 83.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
some yrs its takes a good system to get fall going here in fl. i can see the email between dr master and his little recon buddies. "damn we wore short shorts"
Great news Ike. If we could get say a 1030 mb high in the GOM, that may take enough edge of the Gulf SST's to end hurricane season early this year.

Celebrate........
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T minus 14 days and counting for us in Texas. With the exception of one storm in 1949, there has not been any major hurricane hits for the Texas coast in the past 150+ years after September 30.
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1426. IKE
Mobile,AL. extended discussion....

"BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PD...GENERALLY TUE
THROUGH TUE EVENING NEXT DEEP MID LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS GIVING WAY TO A MODERATE TO
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUES
NIGHT. A FEW STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONG MOSTLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z
MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PDS."

NO,LA extended...

"HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONG S/W WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF WRN
CANADA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS BY
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION
AROUND THE SAME TIME. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MON WITH
THIS FRONT BUT A FEW DAYS LATER A STRONGER MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT IS
POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD BRING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
CWA. OF COURSE THIS IS ABOUT 7 DAYS AWAY SO WE SHALL WAIT AND SEE IF
THIS COME TO FRUITION BUT AT LEAST THE MDLS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1425. IKE
Quoting InTheCone:
Cough, gasp, gack, Anybody got some spare moisture for a guy down on his luck?



Looks like he's ingesting dry-air.

Outlook looks rather grim for FREDEX.

00Z ECMWF shows zilch through September 26th.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Cough, gasp, gack, Anybody got some spare moisture for a guy down on his luck?

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Just before I go.... I notice OPC is expecting FredEx to open out by tomorrow....

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See u guys later today, I hope.....

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THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS MADE UP OF A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N73W...WITH A WARM FRONT GOING FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 32N71W...AND A TROUGH THAT CONTINUES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 26N74W AND TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N76W
27N72W BEYOND 32N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA BETWEEN HAITI AND THE ISLE
OF YOUTH OF CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 31N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 27N45W TO
A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 19N51W TO 12N55W. THIS FEATURE ENGULFS
THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED. THE 1013 MB
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF FRED IS NEAR 20N48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 15N30W ABOUT 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 29W AND 32W.

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see the rookies are night owls nowadays your a lucky dog korieth long live fred
Looks like Choi-wan is finally pulling away from the Marianas.

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The storm track looks like the eye passed between Agrihan and Pagan....
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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