A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 15, 2009

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The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to generate sporadic bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity over the middle Atlantic Ocean. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Dry air and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots today and Wednesday will continue to prevent regeneration of Fred. By Thursday, the chances for regeneration of Fred increase, since wind shear near Fred's remains will fall below 20 knots. However, continued high wind shear and dry air over the next two days will further disrupt the remains of Fred, and there may not be enough left of the storm to regenerate from by the time the wind shear drops. The NOGAPS model forecasts that Fred could regenerate by Sunday, when the remains of the storm will be approaching the Bahama Islands.

Satellite imagery shows a small circulation associated with a tropical wave about 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands. Heavy thunderstorms activity has increased in this region over the past day. However, wind shear is near 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and shear will increase to near 30 knots as the wave progresses west-northwest into a band of high wind shear that lies to its north. It is unlikely that this wave can develop into a tropical depression this week, and NHC is giving it a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from the Bahamas northeastward. Anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature, and would likely move northeastward out to sea.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week.


Figure 1. The remains of Hurricane Fred (left) appears as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the northwest side. A tropical wave is 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands (right), off the coast of Africa. This wave is probably under too much wind shear to develop.

A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later
The events of September 15, 1989, have affected me more deeply than those of any other day in my life. The fifteen members of our crew very nearly became the first of Hurricane Hugo's many victims, and I am still grappling twenty years later with the emotional fallout from the experience. (If you are troubled by a traumatic experience, you may want to consider EMDR therapy, which I found to be helpful). The process of writing the story of that flight was also very therapeutic, and I worked intermittently for six years on the story while I was working towards my Ph.D. For those of you who haven't read it, do so! I worked very hard on it, and it is a remarkable story.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 15, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

The Hurricane Hunters often carry reporters and camera crews on their flights, and the unlucky soul on our flight through Hurricane Hugo was young Janice Griffith of the Barbados Sun newspaper. Her account:

Horror of Hugo's Eye
TO a young reporter, with perhaps more journalistic curiosity than is good for her, it seemed a chance for a good story. To others, who were quick to tell me so, a flight into the centre of a powerful and dangerous hurricane was "sheer madness".

In the end, my journey Friday on a "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft with a hardened, professional crew was nerve-shattering, awesome, and unforgettable. When we limped back into Grantley Adams International after a beating from nature's fury in the form of Hurricane Hugo, I had my story. But I also had to agree that I must have been crazy to have gone in the first place.

Not that I wasn't forewarned.

You sure you want to go?" Dr. James McFadden, manager of the airborne science programmes of the United States Department of Commerce and head of the team asked when I raised the subject following their arrival from their Miami base on Thursday night. "It can be a very dangerous trip".

I wasn't fazed. After all, I'd flown a lot on commercial aircraft, from LIAT to large jumbo jets, and these hurricane hunter were experts who, I was assured, had been in the business of tracking storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean for a dozen years or more. Some had even been at it for 18.

They'd all been through and gone into the eyes of dozens of hurricanes and come back to tell the tale. Not even apprehensive as I, the only woman along with 10 men, boarded just before noon Friday and was shown to one of the four seats in the cockpit, just behind pilot Gerry McKim.

No hostess coming through with complimentary drinks here--or clicking on a seat belt. I was harnessed in like an infant in the rear seat of a car, waist and shoulders securely strapped. "Just in case", I was told.

While I observed, wide-eyed, everyone went about his business with the facility of someone who has done it all before a hundred times over--the pilot and co-pilot, Lowell Genzlinger, the flight engineer, the navigator, the weather experts. Everyone.

Calming effect
Their efficiency had a calming effect and the first half-hour or so, as we headed northeast to investigate and report on the details of Hugo's size and power, was no rougher than any commercial flight I've been on.

But then the sky began to close in with heavy, dark clouds and the 14-year old turboprop plane began to take the kind of buffeting it must have done several times during similar sorties.

The crew treated it all as a matter of course, getting on with their duties, checking radar and charts, communicating their information to headquarters in Miami, doing the other chores that seemed to keep everyone busy.

My notebook tells me we caught up with Hugo at 1:28 pm. For the next hour or so, I wondered why we ever tried--and I got the distinct impression almost everyone aboard wondered that too.

We were surrounded by clouds a dark gray, almost blue, color. The rain pelted down on the fuselage with an intensity that was deafening, like torrential rain on a galvanized roof and with a force that, it was later discovered, burst a small hole in the roof of the fuselage. When it was visible, the sea was almost black, like bubbling tar.

The computer print-out that had registered the wind speed from the time we took off peaked at 185 mph around this time.

We entered the eye--the area of low pressure that is completely calm and marks the centre of the hurricane--at an altitude of about 5,000 feet. Suddenly, my stomach seemed to become detached from my body as as the place dropped, I was told later, to 1,500 feet.

All hell seemed to break loose around and back of me. Briefcases, cups, soda-cans, books, anything unsecured came clattering down. The air conditioning shut down as did the radar and the weather computer. I just gripped the nearest arm and held on for dear life, realizing now why we had all been strapped in so tightly.

"That's unusual", flight engineer Steve Wade said when McKim and Genzlinger got back control of their plane. His attempt at sounding cool was father futile.

Dr. McFadden, a stocky man with gray beard and spectacles, came through, checking on us. He was visibly shaken.

"Everyone alright?" he inquired. We were but his face mirrored his concern when he told me: "This is the worst experience in all of our years going into a hurricane".

Soon there was to be even more. It was discovered that engine No. 3--the near right-side--had conked out. The pilots reported it was on fire and they had to shut it down. Another one was working but not at full capacity.

My life, I knew, rested in the skilled and experienced hands, and heads, of those in control of this wonderful piece of machinery. But, to tell the truth, I was never overcome by fear or panic. Somehow, I sensed all would be well.

Perhaps if I'd known more it would have been different, for we still had to find our way back out of the eye, to penetrate the wall again, and to gain elevation. To do that, on reduced power, meant jettisoning 7,000 of our 10,000 pounds of fuel to lighten the load and circling for an eternal hour while this was done.

Finally, a "weak spot" was found in the cloud formation and we could make an exit from the prison of the eye where we had been trapped for a frightening hour. Around us, winds were now registering 155 knots, and the plane was still being hammered by the weather.

But we were out of the eye and Dr. McFadden, in jubilant relief, exclaimed: "Let's get out of here". He echoed the feeling of everyone aboard.

The system engineer, Schricker ("that's it, don't worry about the first name", he said when I pressed) was more explicit. "I've been flying for 18 years and I don't think I want to fly again," he said.

As we got out of Hugo's clutches and left him to make his way towards the eastern Caribbean, Dr. McFadden put the experience in perspective for me. "You didn't really know what you went through," he said as we headed back to Grantley Adams, itching to back on Terra Firma. "We almost didn't get out of the eye. We almost didn't make it. It was a serious situation".

I believed him--and couldn't help wonder at the bravery of these men who so frequently risk their lives so that others may be saved from the destruction of the storms that head across the Atlantic annually between June and November.

They were working at Grantley Adams yesterday on getting that engine back into shape so that they could be ready the next time another one comes along.

They must be crazy!


Figure 3. An account of the September 15, 1989 flight through Hurricane Hugo posted by reporter Janice Griffith in the Barbados Sun newspaper.

Comments on Janice's story
The rain didn't really punch a hole the fuselage of our airplane as Janice reported. Also, we penetrated the eyewall at 1,500 feet, and dropped to 880 feet during the extreme turbulence in the eyewall. Other than that, Janice has the facts pretty well in hand, particularly the "They must be crazy!" part. Three of us--myself, radio operator Tom Nunn, and electronic engineer Terry Schricker--never flew again on a hurricane hunter mission. However, four members of that flight--Hurricane Field Program Manager Dr. Jim McFadden, Chief Systems Engineer Alan Goldstein, Navigator (now flight meteorologist) Sean White, and the director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, Frank Marks--continue to fly into hurricanes to this day.

I caught up with Janice Griffith via email last year, when I invited her to a "Hurricane Hugo survivors luncheon" for the twelve people from that flight who are still alive (alas, radio operator Tom Nunn, electronic engineer Neil Rain, and chief scientist Dr. Bob Burpee have passed on). Six of us got together at a hurricane conference in Orlando. Janice is still working as a reporter in Barbados, and couldn't make it. Her email to me:

"Nice Hearing from you.
Well after that trip into the eye of Hurricane Hugo,
I certainly will not be going on another.
We almost lost our lives.
And whenever I think about it...I just get some shivers".

Jeff Masters

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Where is Fred currently located?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Choi-wan up to 160mph.



wow!
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666. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 54 Comments: 48846
If this is at Red.


Then why is ExFred at Yellow rofl!
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The NHC is looking for persistence, if the blob holds, things will be interesting by morning. For a yellow code, Fred is looking impressive!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Choi-wan up to 160mph.

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Grrr... If conditions continue to hold, orange code at 2 a.m. with NHC model runs.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
LOL They keep it on Yellow. Wow.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


What, the NHC being correct?


The NHC is never always correct. Not in this case but overall. They are run by humans

And that post has nothing to do with their accuracy.
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Quoting iluvjess:
The disturbed area in my toilet is still swirling and yellow. May go to orange at 8:00 PM.
Yeah, Why don,t you bend down and check for wind shear....j.k.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23793
Hello All!

Good Evening! I see someone let a kid play with the yellow crayon on the NHC site again...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11269
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Best cyclone of the year...by far.




just incredible. and 24-36hrs left to consolidate and strengthen
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Quoting Weather456:


you get accustom to it; I know I have


What, the NHC being correct?
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I wonder if any Cape Verde tc has ever made it all the way across to hit the Fl east coast in the second half of September(especially taking as high latitude a path as Fred so far)?
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650. JRRP
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649. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN PASSING OVER ALAMAGAN...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.


---
actually Choi-wan did make a landfall earlier
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 54 Comments: 48846
Quoting Weather456:


you get accustom to it; I know I have


I have as well.

Im off.

No need to write an update tonight.
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I though it should be this burst only started a few hours ago. By 11pm it could be gone. time will tell of course.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Yellow it is.

LOL....didnt see that coming.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



*bangs head on the keyboard 10 times*
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Best cyclone of the year...by far.

Absolutley ,It looks alot like hurricane Mitch.jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23793
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL....didnt see that coming.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



you get accustom to it; I know I have
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yellow it is
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Yellow it is.

LOL....didnt see that coming.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

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Quoting ElConando:


Yes but as you know inceased shear is expected so... it won't looking nice for long.


Exactly.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CV wave is looking rather nice.



Yes but as you know inceased shear is expected so... it won't looking nice for long.
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NHC regarding the Jersey low of September 11

The area of low pressure did not have tropical characteristics,
including those to be classified as a subtropical system.

The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to its north
and east created gusty winds and a long fetch of moisture from the
Atlantic waters, which triggered the prolonged and occasionally heavy
rain.

Regards,

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
Meteorologist
NOAA Communications & External Affairs
National Hurricane Center
Miami, Florida
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i assume that if convection persists the nhc will upgrade , i think that they will wait through tonight to make a call lots of things going against it but shear looks to be relaxing over the system
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CV wave is looking rather nice.

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still yellow at 8, my guess.

NHC does that, y'know, just to drive ya'll crazy..
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 27252
Quoting Grothar:


An even new image. Anyone ready to call Aunty Em.


Thats with the over-reactive imagery...

Heres what it really looks like.

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Grothar, being on another tab too long cut me off the chat. I'm back on.
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Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane hey and hey btwntx08 Weather456 hey .they end lol


hey
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Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane hey and hey btwntx08 Weather456 hey .they end lol


Hey iceman...
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An even new image. Anyone ready to call Aunty Em.
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621. amd
I'm noticing that many of the ULL's are digging further to the sw as the season progresses.

Instead of ULL's being located between 25 and 30 N while east of 60 West, it looks like the ULL interacting with ex Fred is below 20 N. Also, a ULL is south of Puerto Rico, and all season, these ULL's have gone north of Puerto Rico and ended up in the western Caribbean.

IMO, do not be surprised if mostly unfavorable areas all season, like the western Caribbean, suddenly become favorable for development.

Concerning ex Fred, I would like to see convection fire while its not interacting with an ULL before I am certain that regeneration can occur. I will say this though, shear around ex Fred is near 10 knots, which is the lowest shear that ex Fred has seen in a long time.
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why does post 608 state that we have tropical depression fred again ??????
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Is Choi-Wan suppose to make landfall somewhere? or will it miss land?

It's more then likely gonna miss land. There might be some heavier winds and some higher waves in Japan.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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