A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 15, 2009

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The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to generate sporadic bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity over the middle Atlantic Ocean. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Dry air and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots today and Wednesday will continue to prevent regeneration of Fred. By Thursday, the chances for regeneration of Fred increase, since wind shear near Fred's remains will fall below 20 knots. However, continued high wind shear and dry air over the next two days will further disrupt the remains of Fred, and there may not be enough left of the storm to regenerate from by the time the wind shear drops. The NOGAPS model forecasts that Fred could regenerate by Sunday, when the remains of the storm will be approaching the Bahama Islands.

Satellite imagery shows a small circulation associated with a tropical wave about 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands. Heavy thunderstorms activity has increased in this region over the past day. However, wind shear is near 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and shear will increase to near 30 knots as the wave progresses west-northwest into a band of high wind shear that lies to its north. It is unlikely that this wave can develop into a tropical depression this week, and NHC is giving it a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from the Bahamas northeastward. Anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature, and would likely move northeastward out to sea.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week.


Figure 1. The remains of Hurricane Fred (left) appears as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the northwest side. A tropical wave is 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands (right), off the coast of Africa. This wave is probably under too much wind shear to develop.

A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later
The events of September 15, 1989, have affected me more deeply than those of any other day in my life. The fifteen members of our crew very nearly became the first of Hurricane Hugo's many victims, and I am still grappling twenty years later with the emotional fallout from the experience. (If you are troubled by a traumatic experience, you may want to consider EMDR therapy, which I found to be helpful). The process of writing the story of that flight was also very therapeutic, and I worked intermittently for six years on the story while I was working towards my Ph.D. For those of you who haven't read it, do so! I worked very hard on it, and it is a remarkable story.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 15, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

The Hurricane Hunters often carry reporters and camera crews on their flights, and the unlucky soul on our flight through Hurricane Hugo was young Janice Griffith of the Barbados Sun newspaper. Her account:

Horror of Hugo's Eye
TO a young reporter, with perhaps more journalistic curiosity than is good for her, it seemed a chance for a good story. To others, who were quick to tell me so, a flight into the centre of a powerful and dangerous hurricane was "sheer madness".

In the end, my journey Friday on a "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft with a hardened, professional crew was nerve-shattering, awesome, and unforgettable. When we limped back into Grantley Adams International after a beating from nature's fury in the form of Hurricane Hugo, I had my story. But I also had to agree that I must have been crazy to have gone in the first place.

Not that I wasn't forewarned.

You sure you want to go?" Dr. James McFadden, manager of the airborne science programmes of the United States Department of Commerce and head of the team asked when I raised the subject following their arrival from their Miami base on Thursday night. "It can be a very dangerous trip".

I wasn't fazed. After all, I'd flown a lot on commercial aircraft, from LIAT to large jumbo jets, and these hurricane hunter were experts who, I was assured, had been in the business of tracking storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean for a dozen years or more. Some had even been at it for 18.

They'd all been through and gone into the eyes of dozens of hurricanes and come back to tell the tale. Not even apprehensive as I, the only woman along with 10 men, boarded just before noon Friday and was shown to one of the four seats in the cockpit, just behind pilot Gerry McKim.

No hostess coming through with complimentary drinks here--or clicking on a seat belt. I was harnessed in like an infant in the rear seat of a car, waist and shoulders securely strapped. "Just in case", I was told.

While I observed, wide-eyed, everyone went about his business with the facility of someone who has done it all before a hundred times over--the pilot and co-pilot, Lowell Genzlinger, the flight engineer, the navigator, the weather experts. Everyone.

Calming effect
Their efficiency had a calming effect and the first half-hour or so, as we headed northeast to investigate and report on the details of Hugo's size and power, was no rougher than any commercial flight I've been on.

But then the sky began to close in with heavy, dark clouds and the 14-year old turboprop plane began to take the kind of buffeting it must have done several times during similar sorties.

The crew treated it all as a matter of course, getting on with their duties, checking radar and charts, communicating their information to headquarters in Miami, doing the other chores that seemed to keep everyone busy.

My notebook tells me we caught up with Hugo at 1:28 pm. For the next hour or so, I wondered why we ever tried--and I got the distinct impression almost everyone aboard wondered that too.

We were surrounded by clouds a dark gray, almost blue, color. The rain pelted down on the fuselage with an intensity that was deafening, like torrential rain on a galvanized roof and with a force that, it was later discovered, burst a small hole in the roof of the fuselage. When it was visible, the sea was almost black, like bubbling tar.

The computer print-out that had registered the wind speed from the time we took off peaked at 185 mph around this time.

We entered the eye--the area of low pressure that is completely calm and marks the centre of the hurricane--at an altitude of about 5,000 feet. Suddenly, my stomach seemed to become detached from my body as as the place dropped, I was told later, to 1,500 feet.

All hell seemed to break loose around and back of me. Briefcases, cups, soda-cans, books, anything unsecured came clattering down. The air conditioning shut down as did the radar and the weather computer. I just gripped the nearest arm and held on for dear life, realizing now why we had all been strapped in so tightly.

"That's unusual", flight engineer Steve Wade said when McKim and Genzlinger got back control of their plane. His attempt at sounding cool was father futile.

Dr. McFadden, a stocky man with gray beard and spectacles, came through, checking on us. He was visibly shaken.

"Everyone alright?" he inquired. We were but his face mirrored his concern when he told me: "This is the worst experience in all of our years going into a hurricane".

Soon there was to be even more. It was discovered that engine No. 3--the near right-side--had conked out. The pilots reported it was on fire and they had to shut it down. Another one was working but not at full capacity.

My life, I knew, rested in the skilled and experienced hands, and heads, of those in control of this wonderful piece of machinery. But, to tell the truth, I was never overcome by fear or panic. Somehow, I sensed all would be well.

Perhaps if I'd known more it would have been different, for we still had to find our way back out of the eye, to penetrate the wall again, and to gain elevation. To do that, on reduced power, meant jettisoning 7,000 of our 10,000 pounds of fuel to lighten the load and circling for an eternal hour while this was done.

Finally, a "weak spot" was found in the cloud formation and we could make an exit from the prison of the eye where we had been trapped for a frightening hour. Around us, winds were now registering 155 knots, and the plane was still being hammered by the weather.

But we were out of the eye and Dr. McFadden, in jubilant relief, exclaimed: "Let's get out of here". He echoed the feeling of everyone aboard.

The system engineer, Schricker ("that's it, don't worry about the first name", he said when I pressed) was more explicit. "I've been flying for 18 years and I don't think I want to fly again," he said.

As we got out of Hugo's clutches and left him to make his way towards the eastern Caribbean, Dr. McFadden put the experience in perspective for me. "You didn't really know what you went through," he said as we headed back to Grantley Adams, itching to back on Terra Firma. "We almost didn't get out of the eye. We almost didn't make it. It was a serious situation".

I believed him--and couldn't help wonder at the bravery of these men who so frequently risk their lives so that others may be saved from the destruction of the storms that head across the Atlantic annually between June and November.

They were working at Grantley Adams yesterday on getting that engine back into shape so that they could be ready the next time another one comes along.

They must be crazy!


Figure 3. An account of the September 15, 1989 flight through Hurricane Hugo posted by reporter Janice Griffith in the Barbados Sun newspaper.

Comments on Janice's story
The rain didn't really punch a hole the fuselage of our airplane as Janice reported. Also, we penetrated the eyewall at 1,500 feet, and dropped to 880 feet during the extreme turbulence in the eyewall. Other than that, Janice has the facts pretty well in hand, particularly the "They must be crazy!" part. Three of us--myself, radio operator Tom Nunn, and electronic engineer Terry Schricker--never flew again on a hurricane hunter mission. However, four members of that flight--Hurricane Field Program Manager Dr. Jim McFadden, Chief Systems Engineer Alan Goldstein, Navigator (now flight meteorologist) Sean White, and the director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, Frank Marks--continue to fly into hurricanes to this day.

I caught up with Janice Griffith via email last year, when I invited her to a "Hurricane Hugo survivors luncheon" for the twelve people from that flight who are still alive (alas, radio operator Tom Nunn, electronic engineer Neil Rain, and chief scientist Dr. Bob Burpee have passed on). Six of us got together at a hurricane conference in Orlando. Janice is still working as a reporter in Barbados, and couldn't make it. Her email to me:

"Nice Hearing from you.
Well after that trip into the eye of Hurricane Hugo,
I certainly will not be going on another.
We almost lost our lives.
And whenever I think about it...I just get some shivers".

Jeff Masters

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1068. JLPR
Quoting btwntx08:
created a moisture enviornment so no dry air to contend imo




as long as the ULL is around ex-Fred it will have problems
it isn't natural for a tropical system to have an ULL so close to it xD
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Quoting Dakster:


Welp. You got my respect for those courses.

Well, let's not get carried away. Any electrical engineer and most mets have done about the same.
Admittedly, it isn't for everyone. Just as I would (have) do (done) poorly in a greek literature course, some people just are not built for multivariate calculus as I am not built for the liberal arts.
The math/physics takes a drive and commitment that I sorely lack in other focuses.
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Good evening, just looked at the nhc triple yellows. Just wondering what you all thought..
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Quoting Dakster:


Thankfully I had free tuition for undergrad. I could have gotten a Masters included if I hadn't switched Majors.


LUCKY!!
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Quoting JLPR:
that's one heck of an eye



MM makes me hungry for Mary Lee! But yea thats friggin impressive.
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Quoting btwntx08:
created a moisture enviornment so no dry air to contend imo


you have got to be kidding me? lol

there is tons of dry air all around the system and being entrained into it by the ULL. I have no clue what you are looking at lol
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Quoting StormW:


No sir!


hehe, I'm a she, not a sir.... :)
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1056. Dakster
Quoting alaina1085:


That's really cool Dak. And yea no need in wasting money if the degree wont help. Im sure your college loans are high enough as is haha. Gotta love em.


Thankfully I had free tuition for undergrad. I could have gotten a Masters included if I hadn't switched Majors.
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1055. JLPR
that's one heck of an eye

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What did I say about the convection, it may be all gone by 11.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
Alright, ive come to the conclusion that I need to talk to my professor, he will be able to help me the most, thanks for the input tho guys!

also, sorry about always posting about my homework problems, just couldnt think of better people to ask, but when the tropics get active I wont take up blog space
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Hey Storm W, what year Mustang do you have?
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1050. JLPR
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Ex Fred has a very small chance to develop, too much dry air


that's because of the ULL
its wrapping it around it and since Fred is so close to it, he has to eat it :)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Mine was not that high.


Oh, haha... Nice!
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Quoting alaina1085:


Sounds like you and I were alike in highschool. I got ya beat tho my cumulative GPA was a 2.0 LOL. I was more worried about partying and setting off stink bombs in the bathrooms. Now college was a diff situation. I shaped up.

Mine was not that high.
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Ex Fred has a very small chance to develop, too much dry air
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1045. JLPR
Quoting Dakster:


I am completely done and have no desire to ever go back. I got my Bachelor's in Computer Information Systems, from the Business School at UM. A Masters or a PhD won't help me at work, so I am not interesting in spending money just to get one.


im doing my Bachelor's with that concentration too =]
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1044. Dakster
Quoting atmoaggie:

I was one course away from a minor once I finished the required math. So I took the last one by choice, actually.

At least at A&M, and probably most other programs, the mets have to take more math than the engineers, except the electricals.


Welp. You got my respect for those courses.
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Quoting Dakster:


I am completely done and have no desire to ever go back. I got my Bachelor's in Computer Information Systems, from the Business School at UM. A Masters or a PhD won't help me at work, so I am not interesting in spending money just to get one.


That's really cool Dak. And yea no need in wasting money if the degree wont help. Im sure your college loans are high enough as is haha. Gotta love em.
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1042. JLPR
Fred's convection looks very close to dissipated, a new little area of convection is now developing a little more to the south

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1041. Dakster
STORMW - Good Evening Master Chief. Sit back and blog awhile. It's rather comfortable here at the moment.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, so did I, for Algebra 2.


Sounds like you and I were alike in highschool. I got ya beat tho my cumulative GPA was a 2.0 LOL. I was more worried about partying and setting off stink bombs in the bathrooms. Now college was a diff situation. I shaped up.
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1039. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


07L/LOW/FRED
MARK
20.5N/48.1W
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Quoting Dakster:
Atmo == Woah, the whole kit and kaboddle for math.

Those last few... yuck...

I was one course away from a minor once I finished the required math. So I took the last one by choice, actually.

At least at A&M, and probably most other programs, the mets have to take more math than the engineers, except the electricals.
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1037. Dakster
Quoting alaina1085:


I am so glad im done with math in school. The best advice I can give you is when you arent sure about something ask your teacher/prof. Believe it or not, they actually like the interacton. Lets them know you truely care.


I am completely done and have no desire to ever go back. I got my Bachelor's in Computer Information Systems, from the Business School at UM. A Masters or a PhD won't help me at work, so I am not interesting in spending money just to get one.
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This show on surviving a hurricane is on Spike... Dumb to even be in that situation given the modern day warning system. At least if anyone does see this they will realise it's a very dangerous idea to be out in a hurricane...
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Quoting StormW:


No...I'm not as a matter of fact. I only update at night if there is a threat or system that is steady in strengthening.


Think we will have one of those anytime soon?
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Quoting alaina1085:


Well I landed in summer school for Algebra in high school, hahaha.

Yeah, so did I, for Algebra 2.
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1032. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TampaTom:
Is anyone watching this fantasy show on Spike about surviving a hurricane? "Surviving Disaster: Hurricanes" http://www.spike.com/show/33200

What a crock of crap...

"You just got the hurricane warning.. you now have ONE HOUR to get to safety."

I can't believe they got Chris Landsea to give the voice of the National Hurricane Center.

Now, the guy's teaching people how to cross an angry river with a zipline with the hurricane just 'minutes' from making landfall...

Just a load of bunk...
brainwashing machine stand by for rinsing
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Quoting Dakster:


I am beginning to understand your frustration now.


I am so glad im done with math in school. The best advice I can give you is when you arent sure about something ask your teacher/prof. Believe it or not, they actually like the interacton. Lets them know you truely care.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Ehh, I was out of school for 6 years when I started back into it. And I had a low C high school GPA cause I just didn't care. (I was that guy that never did homework and "disappeared" during lunch time after showing up an hour late.)

So in college I started completely over in math.
College Algebra
Trig
Cal I
Cal II
Cal III
Diff Eq
Linear Alg
Vector Cal
Partial Diff Eq

It is always possible. I was a little bored in the first couple of courses, but it did undoubtedly help.


That's pretty much what I'm doing, this assignment is pretty tough tho because it isnt clear what he is asking for
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL

Exactly.


FAU is begining to have some standards too... what is this world coming too...
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1027. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


no :( the highest math I had was algebra 2, and science was an Earth and Astronomy class

me too
I took Algebra 2 on 11th grade
and then in 12th grade I had basically another class of Algebra 2 but with a little calculus stuff
man... I have no idea how I got an A there lol xD

also took Biology, chemistry and physics
most science gives me headaches lol
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1026. Dakster
Atmo == Woah, the whole kit and kaboddle for math.

Those last few... yuck...
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Quoting TampaTom:
Is anyone watching this fantasy show on Spike about surviving a hurricane? "Surviving Disaster: Hurricanes" http://www.spike.com/show/33200

What a crock of crap...

"You just got the hurricane warning.. you now have ONE HOUR to get to safety."

I can't believe they got Chris Landsea to give the voice of the National Hurricane Center.

Now, the guy's teaching people how to cross an angry river with a zipline with the hurricane just 'minutes' from making landfall...

Just a load of bunk...

Sensationalism, nothing more.
Landsea? I wouldn't have thought he would do it.
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Quoting futuremet:



thats a major trough digging in there
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


wow really algebra 2? really just personal message me im in calculus ill try and help as much as possible :)


hey, I appreciate it, but I think I'm just going to talk to my Professor tomorrow, some others in my class are having problems understanding what he wants us to do exactly too
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Quoting Dakster:


I am beginning to understand your frustration now.


yeah i was "forced" to take up to ap calculus in high school
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Quoting Dakster:


I know, FIU does have admission standards.

They are low, but they have standards.



LOL

Exactly.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, I really think I should have taken calc in high school :(

Ehh, I was out of school for 6 years when I started back into it. And I had a low C high school GPA cause I just didn't care. (I was that guy that never did homework and "disappeared" during lunch time after showing up an hour late.)

So in college I started completely over in math.
College Algebra
Trig
Cal I
Cal II
Cal III
Diff Eq
Linear Alg
Vector Cal
Partial Diff Eq

It is always possible. I was a little bored in the first couple of courses, but it did undoubtedly help.
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After next week, nothing above the Caribbean might even get close to the U.S.

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting watcher123:
Tornadodude:

That really isn't hard math. I thought you would be doing higher order differentials or something like that.



haha it can be tough, but wait till he gets into multiple variable integrals, that will be tons of fun :D
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.