Fred is dead; the Atlantic is quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2009

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Hurricane Fred is dead, thanks to strong wind shear that finished tearing the storm apart yesterday. While the remains of Fred have generated a burst of heavy thunderstorms this morning, prohibitively high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots today through Monday will prevent regeneration, and should be able to completely disrupt the remnant circulation of Fred.

A tropical wave about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa, remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, and one spot of 45 mph winds in the small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some slow development beginning Monday, when the shear should drop below 20 knots. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

A low pressure system that was over the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast has moved inland, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone. Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.


Figure 1. The remains of Tropical Storm Fred (left) appear as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the north side. A new tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 knots of wind shear.

Twenty years ago on this date
On September 13, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo continued its westward march at 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Shortly after midnight on the 13th, satellite analysts at the National Hurricane Center noted a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of thick cirrus clouds was forming over the center. The CDO was evidence that Hugo was beginning to build an eyewall. The thunderstorms in the eyewall were now powerful enough to lift large amounts of moisture 45,000 feet high, where the stable air of the stratosphere lay. Unable to penetrate into the stratosphere, the air lifted by Hugo's thunderstorms was forced to spread outward into a thick, circular layer of cirrus clouds--the CDO--that hid the storm's core. The mystery of what was happening beneath the Central Dense Overcast became apparent a few hours later, when a murky eye appeared. At 8 am EDT on the 13th, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hugo to hurricane status.

At NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--we busily prepared for tomorrow's deployment to Barbados of both of our P-3 Orion hurricane hunting aircraft. There were dropsondes and Air-Expendable Bathythermographs to load, computer checks to make, and calibration data to load. We chatted excitedly about the new hurricane that looked like an excellent case study for the hurricane scientists. But there was also an undercurrent of uneasiness to our cheerful preparations. We knew that a Cape Verdes-type hurricane like Hugo that was still 2 - 3 days from the Lesser Antilles would probably kill a lot of people--perhaps even close to home, here in Florida.

In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here".


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 13, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

Jeff Masters


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Quoting StormW:


I'll take a look...just got on the PC for the first time today.


alright, thank you sir
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
636. JLPR
So does anyone think that Fred could catch the anticlone that is to its east?
looks a lot closer today
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for 15W




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2009 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 15:43:17 N Lon : 147:59:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 981.8mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.1 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -35.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

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Quoting tornadodude:


so what are you thinking about the remnants of Fred? possible redevelopment later on? or no?
thanks


Bet you never expected that ? tonight StormW!
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening Prime Minister

I'm slowly promoting you, :)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hey Storm hows it going?

Mike
Member Since: September 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
Quoting StormW:
Hey alaina and tornadodude.


so what are you thinking about the remnants of Fred? possible redevelopment later on? or no?
thanks
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


good evening captain
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Evenin Storm!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240


AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR
30N79W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW FROM 31N75W
TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W CONTINUING ALONG THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 79N W OF 75W AFFECTING THE
WRN BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-75W. THESE AREAS OF ACTIVITY ARE ALSO
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA NEAR 23N83W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF
33N OVER THE NW ATLC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 20N63W. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N60W.
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Nice to see you back Drak. Did we have a bad storm in L.W. this afternoon? I came home from work and all my patio chairs were blown over.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
THat is like the 4th time you have said that today :) :)


lol, yea
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
BTW, isn't this wave supposed to be moving into some more favorable conditions over the next couple of days???

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 15N. THIS WAVE HAS
PREVIOUSLY BEEN ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ORIGINALLY
FORMED AS A FRACTURE OF A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE
TROUGH STALLED DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF FRED AND THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE REGAINING WWD MOVEMENT AND IS
NOW RE-ANALYZED AS A TROPICAL WAVE. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS 24 HR
TROUGH POSITION THE WAVE IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 57W-60W.
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619. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


looks like a smoke plume


yes it does xD
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I love the Hugo stories, it feels like I am there. Anyways, with the lack of outflow on the western side of the circulation for Choi-Wan I don't know how much RI it will go through, but I just can't imagine what would happen if it had the same outflow and convection on its eastern side was the same on the western side. Impressive typhoon and those waters are very warm.
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Quoting JLPR:
I see Fred is till trying
buy its convection remains a comet xD
and its weakening but lets wait and see what happens to d-max tonight, maybe it manages to cover its center temporarily tonight




looks like a smoke plume
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting iceman55:
got make money .


true that
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Ahem...

already Orange


Yeah, we were talking abt that.... isn't that a whoot? And it's not so far north as one would think. A lot depends on location / strength of that high as to whether we'll see either remnant Fred or regenerated Fred in a few days....
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am enjoying the Hugo chapters
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Thanks for the comment on my blog :)


oh no problem man! I like to read what other people have to say, and keep up the good work :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
611. JLPR
I see Fred is till trying
buy its convection remains a comet xD
and its weakening but lets wait and see what happens to d-max tonight, maybe it manages to cover its center temporarily tonight


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Hey Drake!

Where you been man?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting Drakoen:
Chances upgrade to orange. Tonight's quickscat pass indicated the system still had a well formed circulation with top winds near 30 knots. Upper level winds may become marginally favorable for re-development over the next 48 hours:

Hey, dude. Was just thinking I hadn't seen u in the blog the last couple days.
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The Hugo series is great Dr. Masters, loving every minute of it...
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Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude yeah .i work alot .


thats good tho
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Ahem...

already Orange

(since special statement at about 4:25)
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Am I the only one noticing some new names on the TWO/TWD posts this season?
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Chances upgrade to orange. Tonight's quickscat pass indicated the system still had a well formed circulation with top winds near 30 knots. Upper level winds may become marginally favorable for re-development over the next 48 hours:

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593. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...WHICH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT...REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE IF THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Fred MIMIC
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This Fred has already been a dred dude.... Strongest storm in the area.... prolly fastest to go from cat 3 to td in the area..... lol possibly first to regenerate, head west, and hit something, from that location.... lol

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Quoting zicoille:
On post 476, why there is a red square on the northern leewards isalnds? Is it the HAARP System to disturn or destroy the storm? Can you explain that? Can you explain also why a storm like Erika conturn this "red square"? Extremely weird !!!!
Here in St Barth's, it makes 1 year that we didn't get heavy rain !!!! Strange .... we are in the red square !!!! Someone can explain ?

http://stormctr.com/files/pFred2.jpgLink


I may be wrong, but I believe that is the Hebert box.Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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