Fred is born; storm surge survival misconceptions

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2009

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Tropical Storm Fred sprang to life yesterday off the coast of Africa, but is not a threat to any land areas for at least the next week. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation with plenty of low-level spiral bands and high cirrus clouds streaming away from the storm at high levels, indicating good upper level outflow. There is dry air of the Saharan Air Layer to the north of Fred, but it is far enough away so as not to be a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Fred, off the coast of Africa. Note the layer of low stratocumulus clouds to Fred's north, a sign of relatively dry, stable air there.

The forecast for Fred
Wind shear this afternoon is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and continue to remain low until Thursday morning, when it will rise to the moderate range again. Given Fred's current improving appearance, the storm should be able to attain hurricane status by Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure traversing the North Atlantic will bring higher shear, weakening the storm. The trough will also pull Fred to the northwest and then north. Most of the models foresee that this trough will not be strong enough to fully recurve Fred to the northeast and out to sea. However, with the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of Fred making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low at this time.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina and Virginia today and Wednesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

A strong low pressure system is expected to move into the central U.S. by this weekend, dragging a cold front into the western Gulf of Mexico. In several of their runs over the past few days, the GFS and ECMWF models have been predicting a tropical system may develop along this front in the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday or Monday. The latest GFS phase space analysis of the predicted storm confirms that this would be a tropical cyclone, and not extratropical. There is currently not an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf, but we will have to keep an eye out there beginning this weekend, when the front moves offshore.

I'll have an update Wednesday, when I'll also announce the release of wunderground's excellent new series of storm surge pages. The new storm surge section provides more than 500 detailed, zoomed-in storm surge maps from the official storm surge model used by the National Hurricane Center--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The Weather Underground has created SLOSH model worst-case flood maps for Category 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes for the entire U.S. Atlantic coast, plus Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Bahamas. Zoom-in maps of fifteen important cities such as Miami, New York City, Boston, Tampa, and Corpus Christi are included. To help coastal residents see how past storms have affected their region, the wunderground storm surge pages also include SLOSH model animations of the surge for more than 30 historic storms--from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 to Hurricane Ike of 2008. Included here is one section from the new storm surge pages, "Storm Surge Survival Misconceptions".

Storm Surge Survival Misconceptions
The storm surge is usually the most dangerous threat of a hurricane. The ten deadliest U.S. hurricane disasters, including the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (8000 killed), the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 (2500 killed), and Hurricane Katrina of 2005 (1833 killed), were all primarily storm surge disasters. The Biloxi-Gulfport Sun Herald ran a series of stories in 2005 on people who were lucky enough to survive Hurricane Katrina's record storm surge. There were some common misconceptions that were touched on in these stories, and are reproduced here from Margie's Kieper's blog on the Hurricane Katrina storm surge.


Figure 2. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail on Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

Misconception: Call 911 and you can be rescued, while the water is pouring into your home.
How? No one will be able to get to you. Water rises quickly--sometimes six to ten feet within minutes; cars can't drive in it, and it is usually unnavigable by boats when it is coming ashore.

Misconception: Just stuff towels under the door jambs. Then rush around to start picking up things that are close to floor level, so you can save them.
Bad idea. In a minute or so the surge will burst open the door, and instead of standing in a room with four inches of water, you'll be knocked off your feet and into whatever piece of furniture is closest, and will suddenly be in three or four feet of moving water that you can't make any headway into...just before the refrigerator, quickly rushing through the water towards you, knocks you cold.

Misconception: You'll be able to maneuver around in the rushing water.
Probably not. Some people who drowned were not even able to get out of the room they were in, when the water started pouring into the home. The speed of water in surge can be equivalent to a Class III or IV rapids (Class V is hardly navigable by expert kayakers and canoers, and Class VI is not navigable at all).

Misconception: You'll know in time.
The surge is usually not a wall of water as is often assumed, but rather a rapid rise of water of several feet over a period of minutes. It can sneak in unexpectedly, on little cat feet. Most people that were not completely taken by surprise simply happened to look out the window at the right time.

Misconception: You can outrun the storm surge in your car.
Here's an email I got last year from a resident in the Florida Keys who ignored the evacuation order for Hurricane Ike in 2008: I hate to bother you again, but we live on Marathon in the Florida Keys on the Atlantic side, and my husband says that if we see water coming up from storm surge and have an inch of water in our house, that we can outrun the storm surge in our car. Can you please tell me if there is any way this can possibly be true? P.S., I don't know of anyone who lives down here who is planning on evacuating for Ike. Everyone says they are staying. If you wait until the water is an inch high before trying to outrun the surge, the odds are that the surge will rise to over a foot high before you get your car out of the driveway. If the water is a foot high, the typical 10 - 15 mph speed of the storm surge's current has enough force to sweep a car away. In many places along the coast, there is only one road out of a low-lying region prone to storm surges, and the surge will cut off one's only escape route. The Keys have only one road, and the storm surge will likely be moving perpendicular to the road, cutting off the only escape route. One of these days, there are going to be a lot of people who fail to evacuate caught and killed in the Keys by the storm surge from a major hurricane.

How to Survive a Storm Surge
People who survived Katrina's storm surge did one of several things: they floated out an open window, and managed to hang onto debris, a tree, or some other structure above the water, until the surge receded, hours later. Or, they were able to pull themselves into an attic, or make it up to a second floor, where water did not reach, and luckily the home was not swept away. It is common in many flood-prone regions behind levees to keep an axe fastened to the wall of the attic. Then, if water comes in unexpectedly, you can get into the attic and chop a hole through the roof to escape. Don't forget to keep a length of rope there that you can use to tie yourself to a sturdy part of the house (don't tie yourself to the steel beams of the house, as these will sink).

The best way to survive a storm surge is to heed evacuation orders and leave before the surge arrives!

Storm Surge Safety Actions
- Minimize the distance you must travel to reach a safe location; the further you drive the higher the likelihood of encountering traffic congestion and other problems on the roadways.

- Select the nearest possible evacuation destination, preferably within your local area, and map out your route. Do not get on the road without a planned route, or a place to go.

- Choose the home of the closest friend or relative outside a designated evacuation zone and discuss your plan with them before hurricane season.

- You may also choose a hotel/motel outside of the vulnerable area.

- If neither of these options is available, consider the closest possible public shelter, preferably within your local area.

- Use the evacuation routes designated by authorities and, if possible, become familiar with your route by driving it before an evacuation order is issued.

- Contact your local emergency management office to register or get information regarding anyone in your household whom may require special assistance in order to evacuate.

- Prepare a separate pet plan; most public shelters do not accept pets.

- Prepare your home prior to leaving by boarding up doors and windows, securing or moving indoors all yard objects, and turning off all utilities.

- Before leaving, fill your car with gas and withdraw extra money from the ATM.

- Take all prescription medicines and special medical items, such as glasses and diapers.

- If your family evacuation plan includes an RV, boat or trailer, leave early. Do not wait until the evacuation order or exodus is well underway to start your trip.

- If you live in an evacuation zone and are ordered to evacuate by state or local officials, do so as quickly as possible. Do not wait or delay your departure, to do so will only increase your chances of being stuck in traffic, or even worse, not being able to get out at all.

- Expect traffic congestion and delays during evacuations. Expect and plan for significantly longer travel times than normal to reach your family's intended destination.

- Stay tuned to a local radio or television station and listen carefully for any advisories or specific instructions from local officials. Monitor your NOAA Weather Radio.

Source: NOAA

Jeff Masters

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Quoting will40:
Good Job Orcasystems


All of the overlays are available for google earth. If you ask and I am around.. I can flash them up pretty quick
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1213. will40
Good Job Orcasystems
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Quoting serialteg:


try and superimpose them in photoshop or some program like that... i have an idea to combine them all into a google earth app, unfortunately i am far from being a computer engineering graduate :)


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Look at the ridge building at 78 is fred going to do a jeanne move?
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1209. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Depression "MARING" has maintained its strength as it moves northward slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
===========================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Maring located at 17.2°N, 119.2°E or 130 kms west northwest of Vigan City has 10 minutes sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).

Warning Signals
================

Warning Signals #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
--------------
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.La Union
4.Abra
5.Pangasinan
6.Zambales

Additional Information
=======================
Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 690 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.3°N, 129.5°E).

Tropical Depression "Maring" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today

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pretty much all of the models take him out to sea. is it more clear cut tonight than last night as to what he's going to do. i'm too lazy to read back through all of the blog pages. of course, i read what dr. m said.
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1207. will40
Yea Fred may want to do a loop da loop lol
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WOW GFS has Fred almost moving east in 78hrs!
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1205. will40
Quoting truecajun:
good evening everyone. wow, it looks like fred's got an eye.


Good evening. yes they upgraded him at 11:00
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good evening everyone. wow, it looks like fred's got an eye.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
Some people on here rely way too much on the models predicting cyclogenesis. There may be times it is valid, but most times it is just a what coul dhappen scenario based on the model predicted upcoming weather conditions. Do you modelcasters realize if there was a separate storm list for model predicted cyclogenesis it would be well into, or near the end of the greek alphabet. Does that have any impact on the realization of the hype of most of the model cyclogenesis predictions ? Sorry to rant, but some people are not just realistic at times.


im starting to let up my model hate and be guided towards the information they can provide, which is some forecast guidance... just that, not an exact prediction as these things may tend to have just so many variables and possibilities, it very may be like a formula to decipher the state lotto... not saying it can be done, neither

but. im watching models now (the weather ones - the real life models i always enjoy watching) just to feed me in some clues as to what different mathematical viewpoints of a particular set of inputs gives me in the long run
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1202. will40
Quoting antonio28:


For the moment I will turn NW tomorow.


Yes then N thursday
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Quoting SouthFMY:
Serialteg:
Thanks for the info. Somebody needs to find a way to overlay the steering charts on top of the water vapor imagery. It would make it easier for dummies like me to figure out what the smart folks are talking about.....LOL


try and superimpose them in photoshop or some program like that... i have an idea to combine them all into a google earth app, unfortunately i am far from being a computer engineering graduate :)
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1199. will40
Quoting antonio28:
Also look at 25n 40W the weaknees betwen the to Hihgs, thats Fred road to the graveyard.




Yep thats what he is looking for .
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Serialteg:
Thanks for the info. Somebody needs to find a way to overlay the steering charts on top of the water vapor imagery. It would make it easier for dummies like me to figure out what the smart folks are talking about.....LOL
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Some people on here rely way too much on the models predicting cyclogenesis. There may be times it is valid, but most times it is just a what coul dhappen scenario based on the model predicted upcoming weather conditions. Do you modelcasters realize if there was a separate storm list for model predicted cyclogenesis it would be well into, or near the end of the greek alphabet. Does that have any impact on the realization of the hype of most of the model cyclogenesis predictions ? Sorry to rant, but some people are not just realistic at times.
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Quoting iceman55:
look to me wnw ??????????


For the moment I will turn NW tomorow.
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Good night all! Will see what tomorrow brings. Be safe!
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Quoting btwntx08:

did any new modes come out yet to see what happen with the potential gom storm


check the ukmet and ecmwf, both have 12z runs, next run would be due in about 25 mins. the 16z for the US models go to us e-wall link
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Quoting lurkn4yrs:




Oh believe me they are unprepared at least here in miami.. Every time you tell someone about a storm they say please that's not coming here.. They think we have this magic bubble around us.. But oh well what can you do until the day we get another andrew or katrina they wont remember..
It won't even take that...do you remember last year when Ike was barreling down on South Florida and fprecast to hit as a Cat 4 or 5. Max Mayfield was on getting peoples attention as to the possible danger. Then, as unforcasted, Ike dips SW and defies the track and dis its own thing sparing Sfla. It that type of circumstances that lead to the complacency that is spreading across the region. All it will take is a strong 1 or 2 to come through, a lot of people will not prepare as the "it won't hit here" syndrome will take a lot unprepared causing needless damage. It sad, but it won't be until that day that people here in SFla will remember to take notice of storms and be and stay prepared.
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Also look at 25n 40W the weaknees betwen the to Hihgs, thats Fred road to the graveyard.

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Quoting boiredfish:
Just to share......went to High Island/Gilchrist/Caplen/Crystal Beach today for the first time since Ike. Been too busy dealing with damage at home. Unbelieveable how different the Bolivar Peninsula looks now as opposed to before Ike. Stopped to see a friend in Double Bayou on the way home. He said 15-18 ft. of water there....right by Oak Island. He said Neil Diamond was funding the rebuilding of 20 homes there. Kudos to him. Have seen Bolivar from the bay fishing the past year but first time in the middle of it. Unreal what the surge from Ike did...


I passed through the same area around the first of March. Shock was the best way to describe my feelings. My wife, who had never even seen the Bolivar peninsula, cried.
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Comin' into the world, huh Fred?



Scary to imagine this dude with proper ridging up top...
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heavy rain? I got 30% chance on Fri and 50% on Sat. Maybe they mean heavy rain in isolated areas. We will see.
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Quoting SouthFMY:
Is there an easy way to see where high pressure sytems are in a water vapor image. I think I can see troughs, but I can't pick out the ridges. TIA


kinda hard, thats why you have steering imagery

you should see one to the top-left of fred, and another to the right, then there's what eroded last time with the last invest and it's remains, and on the top is the one who's forecasted to pull fred further north

am i right when i think highs are usually spotted by lack of moisture as in clouds and such?

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Quoting LBAR:
Is it normal to see what looks like rain over the Saharan Desert, or is that just clouds? I don't recall seeing such a pattern there...if ever...and what causes this? Also, I'm assuming any moisture would suppress the SAL in the coming days, right?



Good point make sence with latest GFS runs that develops at least 2 more storms behing Fred.
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1176. JLPR
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Which is why I think Fred will only peak at 105 mph. Wind shear will be an issue.


if it manages to get up to 100mph it will have my respect xD
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1175. JRRP
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Is there an easy way to see where high pressure sytems are in a water vapor image. I think I can see troughs, but I can't pick out the ridges. TIA
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Quoting KoritheMan:


True, but Bertha did not have to deal with shear as quickly as Fred will.


Which is why I think Fred will only peak at 105 mph. Wind shear will be an issue.
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1172. Relix
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

or even SW-WSW


It won't do that, don't worry =P. G'Nite WU!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Bertha did that feat in July 2008 with almost O TCHP. Never know..


True, but Bertha did not have to deal with shear as quickly as Fred will.
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1170. jipmg
ADT?
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Quoting centex:
The models seem in agreement it's based on very thin data as the Ensemble indicates. Don't be surprised if it starts back west after going NW.

or even SW-WSW
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1167. LBAR
Is it normal to see what looks like rain over the Saharan Desert, or is that just clouds? I don't recall seeing such a pattern there...if ever...and what causes this? Also, I'm assuming any moisture would suppress the SAL in the coming days, right?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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