Fred is born; storm surge survival misconceptions

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2009

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Tropical Storm Fred sprang to life yesterday off the coast of Africa, but is not a threat to any land areas for at least the next week. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation with plenty of low-level spiral bands and high cirrus clouds streaming away from the storm at high levels, indicating good upper level outflow. There is dry air of the Saharan Air Layer to the north of Fred, but it is far enough away so as not to be a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Fred, off the coast of Africa. Note the layer of low stratocumulus clouds to Fred's north, a sign of relatively dry, stable air there.

The forecast for Fred
Wind shear this afternoon is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and continue to remain low until Thursday morning, when it will rise to the moderate range again. Given Fred's current improving appearance, the storm should be able to attain hurricane status by Thursday. At that time, a strong trough of low pressure traversing the North Atlantic will bring higher shear, weakening the storm. The trough will also pull Fred to the northwest and then north. Most of the models foresee that this trough will not be strong enough to fully recurve Fred to the northeast and out to sea. However, with the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of Fred making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low at this time.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina and Virginia today and Wednesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

A strong low pressure system is expected to move into the central U.S. by this weekend, dragging a cold front into the western Gulf of Mexico. In several of their runs over the past few days, the GFS and ECMWF models have been predicting a tropical system may develop along this front in the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday or Monday. The latest GFS phase space analysis of the predicted storm confirms that this would be a tropical cyclone, and not extratropical. There is currently not an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf, but we will have to keep an eye out there beginning this weekend, when the front moves offshore.

I'll have an update Wednesday, when I'll also announce the release of wunderground's excellent new series of storm surge pages. The new storm surge section provides more than 500 detailed, zoomed-in storm surge maps from the official storm surge model used by the National Hurricane Center--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The Weather Underground has created SLOSH model worst-case flood maps for Category 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes for the entire U.S. Atlantic coast, plus Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Bahamas. Zoom-in maps of fifteen important cities such as Miami, New York City, Boston, Tampa, and Corpus Christi are included. To help coastal residents see how past storms have affected their region, the wunderground storm surge pages also include SLOSH model animations of the surge for more than 30 historic storms--from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 to Hurricane Ike of 2008. Included here is one section from the new storm surge pages, "Storm Surge Survival Misconceptions".

Storm Surge Survival Misconceptions
The storm surge is usually the most dangerous threat of a hurricane. The ten deadliest U.S. hurricane disasters, including the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (8000 killed), the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 (2500 killed), and Hurricane Katrina of 2005 (1833 killed), were all primarily storm surge disasters. The Biloxi-Gulfport Sun Herald ran a series of stories in 2005 on people who were lucky enough to survive Hurricane Katrina's record storm surge. There were some common misconceptions that were touched on in these stories, and are reproduced here from Margie's Kieper's blog on the Hurricane Katrina storm surge.


Figure 2. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail on Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

Misconception: Call 911 and you can be rescued, while the water is pouring into your home.
How? No one will be able to get to you. Water rises quickly--sometimes six to ten feet within minutes; cars can't drive in it, and it is usually unnavigable by boats when it is coming ashore.

Misconception: Just stuff towels under the door jambs. Then rush around to start picking up things that are close to floor level, so you can save them.
Bad idea. In a minute or so the surge will burst open the door, and instead of standing in a room with four inches of water, you'll be knocked off your feet and into whatever piece of furniture is closest, and will suddenly be in three or four feet of moving water that you can't make any headway into...just before the refrigerator, quickly rushing through the water towards you, knocks you cold.

Misconception: You'll be able to maneuver around in the rushing water.
Probably not. Some people who drowned were not even able to get out of the room they were in, when the water started pouring into the home. The speed of water in surge can be equivalent to a Class III or IV rapids (Class V is hardly navigable by expert kayakers and canoers, and Class VI is not navigable at all).

Misconception: You'll know in time.
The surge is usually not a wall of water as is often assumed, but rather a rapid rise of water of several feet over a period of minutes. It can sneak in unexpectedly, on little cat feet. Most people that were not completely taken by surprise simply happened to look out the window at the right time.

Misconception: You can outrun the storm surge in your car.
Here's an email I got last year from a resident in the Florida Keys who ignored the evacuation order for Hurricane Ike in 2008: I hate to bother you again, but we live on Marathon in the Florida Keys on the Atlantic side, and my husband says that if we see water coming up from storm surge and have an inch of water in our house, that we can outrun the storm surge in our car. Can you please tell me if there is any way this can possibly be true? P.S., I don't know of anyone who lives down here who is planning on evacuating for Ike. Everyone says they are staying. If you wait until the water is an inch high before trying to outrun the surge, the odds are that the surge will rise to over a foot high before you get your car out of the driveway. If the water is a foot high, the typical 10 - 15 mph speed of the storm surge's current has enough force to sweep a car away. In many places along the coast, there is only one road out of a low-lying region prone to storm surges, and the surge will cut off one's only escape route. The Keys have only one road, and the storm surge will likely be moving perpendicular to the road, cutting off the only escape route. One of these days, there are going to be a lot of people who fail to evacuate caught and killed in the Keys by the storm surge from a major hurricane.

How to Survive a Storm Surge
People who survived Katrina's storm surge did one of several things: they floated out an open window, and managed to hang onto debris, a tree, or some other structure above the water, until the surge receded, hours later. Or, they were able to pull themselves into an attic, or make it up to a second floor, where water did not reach, and luckily the home was not swept away. It is common in many flood-prone regions behind levees to keep an axe fastened to the wall of the attic. Then, if water comes in unexpectedly, you can get into the attic and chop a hole through the roof to escape. Don't forget to keep a length of rope there that you can use to tie yourself to a sturdy part of the house (don't tie yourself to the steel beams of the house, as these will sink).

The best way to survive a storm surge is to heed evacuation orders and leave before the surge arrives!

Storm Surge Safety Actions
- Minimize the distance you must travel to reach a safe location; the further you drive the higher the likelihood of encountering traffic congestion and other problems on the roadways.

- Select the nearest possible evacuation destination, preferably within your local area, and map out your route. Do not get on the road without a planned route, or a place to go.

- Choose the home of the closest friend or relative outside a designated evacuation zone and discuss your plan with them before hurricane season.

- You may also choose a hotel/motel outside of the vulnerable area.

- If neither of these options is available, consider the closest possible public shelter, preferably within your local area.

- Use the evacuation routes designated by authorities and, if possible, become familiar with your route by driving it before an evacuation order is issued.

- Contact your local emergency management office to register or get information regarding anyone in your household whom may require special assistance in order to evacuate.

- Prepare a separate pet plan; most public shelters do not accept pets.

- Prepare your home prior to leaving by boarding up doors and windows, securing or moving indoors all yard objects, and turning off all utilities.

- Before leaving, fill your car with gas and withdraw extra money from the ATM.

- Take all prescription medicines and special medical items, such as glasses and diapers.

- If your family evacuation plan includes an RV, boat or trailer, leave early. Do not wait until the evacuation order or exodus is well underway to start your trip.

- If you live in an evacuation zone and are ordered to evacuate by state or local officials, do so as quickly as possible. Do not wait or delay your departure, to do so will only increase your chances of being stuck in traffic, or even worse, not being able to get out at all.

- Expect traffic congestion and delays during evacuations. Expect and plan for significantly longer travel times than normal to reach your family's intended destination.

- Stay tuned to a local radio or television station and listen carefully for any advisories or specific instructions from local officials. Monitor your NOAA Weather Radio.

Source: NOAA

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Orcasystems:
Eureka..I have made a discovery... if you look at the AOI I posted for Fred I noticed the following... maybe I am on to something.

Most of the 4 Letter models have it going to the North.

Most of the 2 Letter and 2 Number models have it going West.

Anyone want to try and figure that one out?


lmao
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Homeless,

So what are your thought on this GOM thing?


Hi Tex. I'm still not sure. Haven't looked at all of the latest models. Just the GFS. That seems to drag something right through here. But I have no idea if it will be rain or something else. Far as I know the GFS is the only one who develops anything. So it's still wait and see. But from reading that thing I posted it looks like whatever it is will come this way. Or some of it will. Lol. Sorry i'm not very helpful.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
863. IKE
Accuweather talks about a GOM possibility...."A trough of low pressure lies over the Gulf of Mexico and there is no immediate threat for development, but some computer models do suggest an area of low pressure developing over the western Gulf on Friday or Saturday, so this area will need to be monitored closely."

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Quoting tornadodude:

That's the low that continues to cause scattered thunderstorms where I live.
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860. jipmg
My forecast is that Fred will peak at a CAT 3
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (T0912)
6:00 AM JST September 9 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dujuan (980 hPa) located at 33.1N 146.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 25 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 40.0N 159.0E - Extratropical



that storm been a round for weeks on end it sure dos not no when too give up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
local met in lafayette louisiana gives no chance of gulf storm just rain maker
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Good evening everyone! I am curious about something, and I've taken multiple meterology courses, but I am still left wondering why there are so many troughs (TUTTs) in the Atlantic right now. A comparison of EPac water vapor imagery and North Atlantic water vapor shows that there is an abundance of troughs in the Atlantic, not just the major long-wave deep layer trough that's been sitting along the east coast. So I guess my question is why are there soo many TUTTs, why is the subtropical jet-stream is a position to basically shear everything, why is there very little mid to upper level ridging, will it change, and what will it take to change it? Will it take a long wave trough to plough out into the Atlantic to move everything along? And below normal heights are so persistent over such a large area, what will cause it to actually change? Yes I know that El Nino plays a major part in all of this. TIA (thanks in advance)
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
854. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Some more northeastward trackers from the Gulf of Mexico in September:





LOL...you just proved me wrong, big-time. LOL!
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775
fxus64 klix 082030
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
330 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 8 2009



Synopsis...
scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area
this afternoon. Most of the showers have been producing one half
inch to one inch of rain...but a few slower moving storms have
resulted in isolated areas receiving up to two inches of rain.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s and low 70s.


&&


Discussion...
not much agreement in the models this cycle. The GFS contains much
more moisture across the area than the NAM does. This is very
evident in the forecast probability of precipitation...with the GFS carrying 50-60% probability of precipitation
for tomorrow and the NAM carrying only 10-20%. The increased
chances of rain and higher cloud cover in the GFS have also led to
disparate temperature forecasts between the two models. Will lean
toward the GFS as there should not be much difference between
today and tomorrow...and the GFS also has the support of the
latest European model (ecmwf) run.


Through Friday...expect southeasterly winds to continue bringing
moisture into the area. Diurnal heating should be more than enough
to result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
High temperatures should generally top out in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees...with low temperatures in the low to middle 70s
depending on proximity to the Gulf.


Also Worth mention...patchy fog is expected to develop tonight and
Wednesday night. In most places...the fog is not expected to be
too thick...generally reducing visibilities into the 3 to 5 mile
range. However...in some places that receive higher rainfall
amounts...a few hours of dense fog will be possible with
visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less.


By Saturday...a weak surface low is forecast to develop over the
western Gulf along a dissipating surface boundary. This low will
should move northeast toward the northwestern Gulf Coast through
the weekend. Across the local area...this will result in a
stronger surge of moisture into the area and an increased chance
of rain through Monday. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms
to develop Saturday and Sunday with slightly less coverage on
Monday. Dense cloud cover and rainfall will generally keep high
temperatures in the middle 80s during this period.


Finally...it should be noted that with glaring differences in the
model guidance throughout the entire period...forecast confidence
decreases greatly as time into the future increases.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
I'm starting to see an eye starting to form.

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849. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (T0912)
6:00 AM JST September 9 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dujuan (980 hPa) located at 33.1N 146.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 25 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 40.0N 159.0E - Extratropical
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
848. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA (EP152009)
21:00 PM UTC September 8 2009
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Linda (997 hPa) located at 15.5N 128.4W or 1140 NM west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 2 knots.

Gale/Storm-Force Winds
=====================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.7N 128.7W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 16.6N 129.4W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.0N 130.8W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 22.0N 132.0W - 25 knots (Low Pressure Area)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cattlebaroness:
where is the best place to view the GOM images that update frequently. I have tried NOAA but I think I am not looking at the right area.


www.esl.lsu.edu/home/


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
845. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geopyshical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "MARING" has maintained its strength as it moves north northwestward slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
===========================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Maring located at 16.6°N, 117.9°E or 230 kms west Northwest of Dagupan City has 10 minutes sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).

Warning Signals
================

Warning Signals #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
--------------
1.Ilocos Sur
2.La Union
3.Western Pangasinan
4.Zambales
5.Bataan
6.Lubang Is.

Additional Information
=======================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Central and Southern Luzon. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


Look at that second convective band developing in front of the band on the western side. Earlier today one could see stratocumulus clouds off to the west and northwest of Fred's outflow, but the outflow clouds started to infringe on the stratocumulus clouds and they dissipated as thunderstorms erupted on his northwestern bands.


there is rule in TC forecasting when you see that outer band develops

1. It signifies the conditions ahead are conducive for thunderstorm development and consequently, intensification

2. TCs normally move towards areas where the sfc pressure is lowered or the atmosphere is warmed due to thunderstorms.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:


It looks strong over the GOM, but it's suppose to decrease the end of this week over the GOM...Link



ok IK do you think EL Nino is playing a row in are strong wind shear right now???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Patrap:


Look on the right side of this page and Under RECOMMENDED LINKS.

How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links


alright, thanks, I asked like 4 times earlier and this is the first answer I got :/
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I think this explains the NE flow into the NW GOM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

A TEXAS COASTAL FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CORPUS CHRISTI THROUGH
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH JASPER TO VICKSBURG. RICH BAY-OF-CAMPECHE
AIR STREAMING NORTH...UPGLIDES UPON REACHING THE COASTAL FRONT.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FURTHER-UP...THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORES THROUGH LOWER BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING ACROSS LOUISIANA.

MANITOBA AIR TRAVELING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FRAGMENT
THE JET CORE. A NEGATIVELY-TILTED WESTERLY TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS
THE NEW MEXICO-WEST TEXAS REGION...WITH CONSEQUENT DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO


Hi Homeless,

So what are your thought on this GOM thing?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

Good evening, StormW.
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Quoting tornadodude:
good evening everyone, I have a question.
how do you post satellite and radar loops?
Thanks


Look on the right side of this page and Under RECOMMENDED LINKS.

How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
837. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey IKE dos the wind shear map look like late SEP out there too you??


It looks strong over the GOM, but it's suppose to decrease the end of this week over the GOM...Link
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I think this explains the NE flow into the NW GOM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

A TEXAS COASTAL FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CORPUS CHRISTI THROUGH
GALVESTON BAY THROUGH JASPER TO VICKSBURG. RICH BAY-OF-CAMPECHE
AIR STREAMING NORTH...UPGLIDES UPON REACHING THE COASTAL FRONT.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FURTHER-UP...THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORES THROUGH LOWER BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING ACROSS LOUISIANA.

MANITOBA AIR TRAVELING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FRAGMENT
THE JET CORE. A NEGATIVELY-TILTED WESTERLY TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS
THE NEW MEXICO-WEST TEXAS REGION...WITH CONSEQUENT DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Do not "sea" anything happening yet on the meds

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-090330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 2009


.SYNOPSIS...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGH WEST
OF 95W FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ082-090330-
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 2009

TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT NE
TO E WINDS 15 KT S OF 22N E OF 92W DURING EVENINGS. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT. SCATTERED TSTMS.

FRI AND SAT
E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

SUN
SE WINDS 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
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hey IKE dos the wind shear map look like late SEP out there too you??
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Evening Chief W.
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i really dont see anything forming in the gulf
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good evening everyone, I have a question.
how do you post satellite and radar loops?
Thanks
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Yeap he right on track. Will be fun to watch him over the next 72 hrs as he may became the 2nd Major of 2009 Season.
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828. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Lot of storms go northeast in the Gulf of Mexico in September.


I stand corrected then.
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where is the best place to view the GOM images that update frequently. I have tried NOAA but I think I am not looking at the right area.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Thanks...and the last update was at?


18Z Link
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Does appear Fred is moving WNW now.
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Quoting IKE:


Every 6 hours.


Thanks...and the last update was at?
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822. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:
How often does the GFS model update?


Every 6 hours.
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Quoting Weather456:
Fred getting ready to intensify tis evening, may become a cane later 2night or early Wednesday



Yeap, and starting the turn to the NW as forrescast...
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Quoting Weather456:
Fred getting ready to intensify tis evening, may become a cane later 2night or early Wednesday



Look at that second convective band developing in front of the band on the western side. Earlier today one could see stratocumulus clouds off to the west and northwest of Fred's outflow, but the outflow clouds started to infringe on the stratocumulus clouds and they dissipated as thunderstorms erupted on his northwestern bands.
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How often does the GFS model update?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting IKE:


And what an odd track for a GOM low, IF it develops...NE in early to mid September?


I don't know about anybody else but this summer has been very odd in the North East. It all must tie in together some how.
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Fred looking good..You can already see the northerly componet taking place.
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Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane yes .http://www.hurricanecity.com/


ok..
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815. IKE
Quoting hurricanehanna:
So I am seeing the large anti-cyclonic rotation in the GOM - and the Low is not there yet - correct?


High is center just inland from the BOC....I see a cyclonic spin down there too, but it looks sheared to me....

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