New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


I'll have another look tomorrow. What I do when I post a late night forecast, is I focus mainly on developing systems at hand.


I understand....no problem. We will see soon enough what the GOM does if anything.
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1385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't forget Claudette.

I know what you meant, though, and that is that the heat energy in the Gulf has been virtually untapped by tropical cyclones this season, and I do not dispute that.

One thing is for sure, if that heat remains in place throughout the season, we could be looking at some pretty significant severe weather events during the winter months for the Gulf Coast regions, as the approaching cold fronts draw up that heat from the south.
rnt flow can be nasty all depends on how much heat and moisture is ava. for the season and at the moment there is lots
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't forget Claudette.

I know what you meant, though, and that is that the heat energy in the Gulf has been virtually untapped by tropical cyclones this season, and I do not dispute that.

One thing is for sure, if that heat remains in place throughout the season, we could be looking at some pretty significant severe weather events during the winter months for the Gulf Coast regions, as the approaching cold fronts draw up that heat from the south.


hmmmm, so I guess if no tropical storms, then maybe ice storms?.......
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1382. JLPR
well im out
its nice to see we are mostly troll free tonight
good night and see you all tomorrow =P
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't forget Claudette.

I know what you meant, though, and that is that the heat energy in the Gulf has been virtually untapped by tropical cyclones this season, and I do not dispute that.

One thing is for sure, if that hit remains in place throughout the season, we could be looking at some pretty significant severe weather events during the winter months for the Gulf Coast regions, as the approaching cold fronts draw up that heat from the south.


I've heard a few people talk about it being a rough winter because of this. what do y'all mean by that? just a lot of thunderstorms?
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Quoting StormW:


Ya know...I ran through the models tonight, and didn't see anything. Shear is also still forecast to remain unfavorable for the next 72 hours or so.


really....i saw one earlier that had it pretty much right on top of TX/LA. Even our locals are mentioning something about it. That we may need to be keeping an eye out.....I dunno
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Quoting truecajun:


it is strange and almost frightening in a "too good to be true" way that the gulf hasn't spun up something yet.


oops, i forgot about claudette
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Quoting truecajun:


it is strange and almost frightening in a "too good to be true" way that the gulf hasn't spun up something yet.


Don't forget Claudette.

I know what you meant, though, and that is that the heat energy in the Gulf has been virtually untapped by tropical cyclones this season, and I do not dispute that.

One thing is for sure, if that heat remains in place throughout the season, we could be looking at some pretty significant severe weather events during the winter months for the Gulf Coast regions, as the approaching cold fronts draw up that heat from the south.
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Quoting truecajun:


it is strange and almost frightening in a "too good to be true" way that the gulf hasn't spun up something yet.


Well, that may be changing soon from what I hear....and you know how the saying goes...when something seems to good to be true it usually is.
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1375. Dakster
Uhhh. StormW - I don't like those steering layers. I can see why the storm is going WSW now...
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Quoting serialteg:


its a 5 day loop, 8 is most current layer


oh ok gotcha
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Quoting serialteg:


frame that and hold it over the blog


LOL!
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Quoting tornadodude:


isnt that loop old?
sept 3 through 8?


its a 5 day loop, 8 is most current layer
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Quoting KoritheMan:


By the time it becomes one, it will probably be winter, when the Atlantic normally becomes tame.

Also, given the undisturbed Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) in the Caribbean that has been untapped by even one tropical cyclone this year, I'd wager that we'll see a major hurricane develop in October there, as it is climatologically favored during that month.

This season is not over by a longshot.


it is strange and almost frightening in a "too good to be true" way that the gulf hasn't spun up something yet.
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.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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1367. 7544
believe it or not ex erica will still be in the bahaamas on weds and thurs this weak haeding west as wave lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:




This season is not over by a longshot.


frame that and hold it over the blog
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1365. Dakster
Quoting StormW:


No...but one thing we need to look at...based on previous steering layers maps today, and consitent model guidance...NONE called for a shift south...and when the NHC uses words like significant, then something somewhere has or is changing.


Yep. NHC leaves you wondering what in the heck is going on.

BTW - I wanted to be asleep by now, but I can't stop watching the Hurricane making landfall in Tallahassee.
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Quoting serialteg:




check that layer out

and you guys check it and give your banter


isnt that loop old?
sept 3 through 8?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Not much change in their thinking of the track..
Photobucket
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1362. centex
I mentioned earlier the system has been moving S of W. Doing doing that for over 12 hours.
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Quoting antonio28:
If Fred miss the first weekness will cross the atlantic?


Quoting serialteg:
Guys, watch this 5day 500-850 steering layer and tell me what you think !!!!


check that layer out

and you guys check it and give your banter
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Quoting StormW:


No...but one thing we need to look at...based on previous steering layers maps today, and consitent model guidance...NONE called for a shift south...and when the NHC uses words like significant, then something somewhere has or is changing.


Hi Storm,

Any new thoughts of the Gulf potential supposedly coming up? Thanks
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not yet any way


By the time it becomes one, it will probably be winter, when the Atlantic normally becomes tame.

Also, given the undisturbed Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) in the Caribbean that has been untapped by even one tropical cyclone this year, I'd wager that we'll see a major hurricane develop in October there, as it is climatologically favored during that month.

This season is not over by a longshot.
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Quoting serialteg:
Where's Barney?

PD. What a game! FSU - Miami...


The 1972 list had the name Betty, and you know what that means... ; )

All we're missing is Barney at this point.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd wager that we'll see at least 10. This El Nino is not a strong one.



not yet any way
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Taz, posting one sentence from the forecast is not like you. Read on:


THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE RECENT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...FRED IS EXPECTED
TO RECURVE INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY SLOW
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AS THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT CAUSES THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING WEAK
RIDGING TO BUILD IN NORTH OF FRED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE
MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION OF THE CENTER. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



WHAT???
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Quoting Tazmanian:
well well well wow wow wow well well well we may it too the 6 name storm yay yay yay boooo booo boo i say lol


i dont think will will get pass 6 name storms


I'd wager that we'll see at least 10. This El Nino is not a strong one.
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Quoting serialteg:
Where's Barney?

PD. What a game! FSU - Miami...


yeah, its exciting
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Where's Barney?

PD. What a game! FSU - Miami...
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Quoting taco2me61:


Yes I'm out too....

All have a great nite....


you too
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting StormW:


Thank goodness for small favors.

Good night all.


goodnight Storm
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Quoting StormW:


Thank goodness for small favors.

Good night all.


Yes I'm out too....

All have a great nite....
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If Fred miss the first weekness will cross the atlantic?
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Quoting truecajun:
wow. joe is fired up.


he is a true rock star
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well well well wow wow wow well well well we may it too the 6 name storm yay yay yay boooo booo boo i say lol


i dont think will will get pass 6 name storms
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Quoting StormW:


Not good!


Why is it not good? Do you see a chance it could make it all the way across the Atlantic and perhaps affect land? All I see is an eventual turn to the north sooner or later.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




yes but it still takes it out too sea


That is extremely fortunate. If the current pattern favored a more westward track, I think Fred would be a significant hurricane down the road.
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i see we now have fred......
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wow. joe is fired up.
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Quoting StormW:


Not good!




yes but it still takes it out too sea
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Soaking rain here in Greenville,NC. Good sleep weather!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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