New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting serialteg:


so how bout them cowboys ... :P


Lol. We'll see Sunday. :)
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think it should be challengable as well. The officials make me nuts! Of course they make up new penalties all the time just for my team. The Roy Williams Rule. Emmit Smith Rule, Eric williams Rule, etc. etc etc. Lol


so how bout them cowboys ... :P
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


No its not, but it was clear; defender never looked for the ball and had his hands on the receiver. Since it was a 3rd down FSU had to kick a FG to only go up 3; if it had been called like it should FSU would have had a 1st down inside Miami's 20 with 3 minutes left. That changes things big time.


Seen a lot of those in a lot of games...

thats why i say it should be challengeable or at least reviewable for officials
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Quoting serialteg:
Is pass interference a challengeable call in football, anyway? Just thinking...

IMO if it isn't (which I think it isn't) it should be, it's a definite game changer, right there with turnovers


I think it should be challengable as well. The officials make me nuts! Of course they make up new penalties all the time just for my team. The Roy Williams Rule. Emmit Smith Rule, Eric williams Rule, etc. etc etc. Lol
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Quoting TexNowNM:
I am hopeful it will just be rain for SE Tx/La. We'll just have to wait and see. Goodnight Homeless and everyone else.


goodnight
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
I am hopeful it will just be rain for SE Tx/La. We'll just have to wait and see. Goodnight Homeless and everyone else.
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1429. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi. Yes, there's supposed to be something down there that we need to watch. Hopefully it won't be anything serious. I think the GFS is the only model that develops it. Hoping it'll just be rain.
by the end of the week thur fri looks to be just s of la/al offshore in north central gom by sun the 13 of sept maybe more towards eastern la then west al but as always we wait and see
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Quoting serialteg:
Is pass interference a challengeable call in football, anyway? Just thinking...


No its not, but it was clear; defender never looked for the ball and had his hands on the receiver. Since it was a 3rd down FSU had to kick a FG to only go up 3; if it had been called like it should FSU would have had a 1st down inside Miami's 20 with 3 minutes left. That changes things big time.
Quoting TexNowNM:
Hey, I just heard from the folks down in Texas that their local met commented on an area that needs to be watched in the Gulf. I listened to his ten o'clock weather-cast on internet and he said that an area near S Texas needs to be watched. This is what I gathererd:

The upper level winds are unfavorable right now
but that will change in a few days. Anything
that spins up will go north, which means Tx/La
border. The storms sitting there will just sit and stew until then. (I hope I got that right.)

It is Greg Bostick on KFDM and he tends to be very conservative. I wonder if this is to whom TexasHurricane was referring.


Hi, yes I had heard this as well....
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Is pass interference a challengeable call in football, anyway? Just thinking...

IMO if it isn't (which I think it isn't) it should be, it's a definite game changer, right there with turnovers
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Wondering how long the anticyclone will hold up... or keep up ... with fred. strong shear to the NW

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Quoting TexNowNM:
Hey, I just heard from the folks down in Texas that their local met commented on an area that needs to be watched in the Gulf. I listened to his ten o'clock weather-cast on internet and he said that an area near S Texas needs to be watched. This is what I gathererd:

The upper level winds are unfavorable right now
but that will change in a few days. Anything
that spins up will go north, which means Tx/La
border. The storms sitting there will just sit and stew until then. (I hope I got that right.)

It is Greg Bostick on KFDM and he tends to be very conservative. I wonder if this is to whom TexasHurricane was referring.


Hi. Yes, there's supposed to be something down there that we need to watch. Hopefully it won't be anything serious. I think the GFS is the only model that develops it. Hoping it'll just be rain.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Well this one was the other way around, horrible call, FSU would have had a 1st down inside Miami's 20 with 3 minutes left; instead they settled for a FG which changed everything


calm down, calm down, you win some, you lose some. REF= really egregious football
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting Dakster:
Usually REFS make bad calls that hurt Miami... Not the other way around...


Well this one was the other way around, horrible call, FSU would have had a 1st down inside Miami's 20 with 3 minutes left; instead they settled for a FG which changed everything
game tied with 3 minutes to go and a clear pass interference is missed, FSU could have scored a TD or ran more time off the clock

doesnt matter what happens after that, the whole game was changed on the blown call
Thanks F4PHANTOM for your quote from the Houston/Galveston weather station. The Lake Charles weather service suggests the possibility of a big rain event.

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1419. Dakster
Usually REFS make bad calls that hurt Miami... Not the other way around...
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Quoting Dakster:
CAT5 Hurricane just made landfall in Tallahassee...

What a game. Good night all, and hopefully Fred goes out to sea...


goodnight!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Refs blew the game

Horrible call on the non pass interference with 3 minutes left changed the whole game

I hate when officials decide a great game like this
GFS steering forecast

Wow guys. What a game. First time I watch college football really intently - dodging the blowouts - and wow!

I'm hooked!

lol ... only if the college season were not mated with the pro season ...
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1415. Dakster
CAT5 Hurricane just made landfall in Tallahassee...

What a game. Good night all, and hopefully Fred goes out to sea...
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Congrats Miami!

REF= Really Egregious Football
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
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Hey, I just heard from the folks down in Texas that their local met commented on an area that needs to be watched in the Gulf. I listened to his ten o'clock weather-cast on internet and he said that an area near S Texas needs to be watched. This is what I gathererd:

The upper level winds are unfavorable right now
but that will change in a few days. Anything
that spins up will go north, which means Tx/La
border. The storms sitting there will just sit and stew until then. (I hope I got that right.)

It is Greg Bostick on KFDM and he tends to be very conservative. I wonder if this is to whom TexasHurricane was referring.
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We have Fred, it will be like 2004's Danelle by track, its the 6th named storm.. UKMET was forcasting for 6 named storms
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Nothing going to form off the S.E. Fla. coast anytime soon.
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REF-
Really Egregious Football
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting truecajun:


i'm terrified of tornadoes. i always have dreams about them chasing me in the sugarcane fields of New Iberia.


Oddly enough, I am going to start chasing storms in a couple years. ;)
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Nam 00z continues to develop a low pressure area near South Florida. There is a pocket of lower shear there at the moment. Any opinions?
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1405. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


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Quoting truecajun:
seems like everyone is wathing the football game. the blog is so much slower than usual.


Yep, watching and hoping for a FSU loss. FSU at the Miami 3 with :36 left...
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good night everyone.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:


From Houston/Glaveston NWS
THINGS GET REAL MESSY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS DEVELOPS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH A SLUG OF PW AIR
APPROACHING 2.6 INCHES. THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND TRACKS IT N-NE TOWARD SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE CAN AND
ECMWF KEEP AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE GULF BUT BOTH MODELS STILL BRING
A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER COAST. UPPER LEVEL
WIND SHEAR LOOKS RATHER STRONG SO PREFER THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION AS
SUGGESTED BY THE CAN/ECMWF. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE
AGAIN WRT TO THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS THE LOW EASTWARD. PREFER THE GFS SOLN
IN THE LONG RANGE BECAUSE IT MATCHES UP BEST WITH THE CAN AND LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS ALLOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS.
EITHER WAY...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

Of course all things are subject to changes but for now seems to be OK


yeah, well - I will definitely be keeping an eye on it just in case... :)
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/
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Stronger storms, really.

It also depends upon how strong the cold front is, as temperature gradient also plays a part.


i'm terrified of tornadoes. i always have dreams about them chasing me in the sugarcane fields of New Iberia.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Oh it was pathetic, he wasnt looking at the ball, had his hands hitting the WRs hands, his jersey, etc Obvious call and the refs blew it


They do that a lot!
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Quoting Dakster:


Yep. Glued to the TV screen. The game is incredible... Got a computer and a TV in the same room.


me too, great game
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
1397. Dakster
Quoting truecajun:
seems like everyone is wathing the football game. the blog is so much slower than usual.


Yep. Glued to the TV screen. The game is incredible... Got a computer and a TV in the same room.
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Quoting truecajun:


I've heard a few people talk about it being a rough winter because of this. what do y'all mean by that? just a lot of thunderstorms?


Stronger storms, really.

It also depends upon how strong the cold front is, as temperature gradient also plays a part.
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1395. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting truecajun:


I've heard a few people talk about it being a rough winter because of this. what do y'all mean by that? just a lot of thunderstorms?
a lot of deep continitial cyclones with strong frontal dynamics which could produce some very significant fall and early winter storms we also have to see how strong the cold air will be as well so there is lots left to play out our continitial cyclones should start to appear by late sept and with them the first of the strong cold fronts then we wait for pattern regonition to see what is instored for the coming winter months
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seems like everyone is wathing the football game. the blog is so much slower than usual.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Hubby said the same thing.


Oh it was pathetic, he wasnt looking at the ball, had his hands hitting the WRs hands, his jersey, etc

Obvious call and the refs blew it
My public advisory on Dujuan at 11PM
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Miami got away with an obvious pass interference penalty on that 3rd down play


Lol. Hubby said the same thing.
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1389. centex
Looks like it is going to miss the first trough, like Doc mentioned.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Miami got away with an obvious pass interference penalty on that 3rd down play


haha personally im going for miami, so ill keep quiet ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Miami got away with an obvious pass interference penalty on that 3rd down play
Quoting StormW:


I'll have another look tomorrow. What I do when I post a late night forecast, is I focus mainly on developing systems at hand.


I understand....no problem. We will see soon enough what the GOM does if anything.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.