New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting iceman55:
u have to refrech sometime


yeah, its ok tho
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Quoting iceman55:
Link


go here


thanks iceman
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well, any good satellite views of Fred?
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Thanks Geoff. Nice tune. :)
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GO MIAMI GO!!!!!!!!!!
GO CANES GO!!!!!!!!
FSU IS ALWAYS ABOUT CRYNG AND GOING WIDE RIGHT!!!!
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Quoting gaweatherboi:


Im going with 29 named storms 16 hurricanes and 8 majors. lol thats surreal


:P
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Quoting gaweatherboi:


Im going with 29 named storms 16 hurricanes and 8 majors. lol thats surreal


haha ill go with you on that one, jk
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Going with 10/5/2, 2006's numbers.


Im going with 29 named storms 16 hurricanes and 8 majors. lol thats surreal
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Quoting gaweatherboi:


Yes i remember...Thats nice to know. Any other myths out there?


I've been looking them up, but haven't come across anything too unbelievable.
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Quoting iceman55:
i think we have 12 name storm for 2009 imo


Going with 10/5/2, 2006's numbers.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey gaweatherboi, remember when Tigers, myself, and you were discussing Alicia's double eye in the chatroom the other night?

Well, I emailed the NHC and they said Alicia's double eye is a myth.

Yes i remember...Thats nice to know. Any other myths out there?
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Musical interlude for my friends on here..
img src="" alt="" />
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Quoting KoritheMan:


TD7*


bah you caught it before I changed it :P.
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Quoting gaweatherboi:


Thank You im a newbie just trying to get the hang of this stuff.


Its a complicated topic. The only people worse than meteorologists at forecasting are economists. :)

Cheers
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Quoting ElConando:
kinda off topic but anyone know if Dolphins games are carried in Tally or Jaguar's?

Now on topic how is td8?


TD7*
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Quoting iceman55:
I'm doing good


good to hear
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Hey gaweatherboi, remember when Tigers, myself, and you were discussing Alicia's double eye in the chatroom the other night?

Well, I emailed the NHC and they said Alicia's double eye is a myth.
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kinda off topic but anyone know if Dolphins games are carried in Tally or Jaguar's?

Now on topic how is td7?
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Quoting Progster:


ensembles are a number of runs of the same model with slight difference in each run. The slight difference can be made to the physics or "guts", if you will, of each model run, or to the data that tells them what the atmosphere is like at the beginning of their simulation (the initial conditions). They show how the models respond to slightly different initial conditions. If given only a touch of different initial conditions, the ensemble "members" produce wildly different solutions then that lowers confidence in the model forecast. If in spite of their slight differences the models come up with more-or-less the same solution, that increases confidence in the forecast. Ensembles produce a sense of the predictability of the atmosphere at any given time.


Thank You im a newbie just trying to get the hang of this stuff.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
You guys have fun... I am off for the night :)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


take care!
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You guys have fun... I am off for the night :)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting centex:
So we have a low confidence.


That's what it's looking like.
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1449. centex
So we have a low confidence.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by the end of the week thur fri looks to be just s of la/al offshore in north central gom by sun the 13 of sept maybe more towards eastern la then west al but as always we wait and see


Well looking at the GFS we have three of em coming. One towards the E GOM, one in SW LA and still the one we've been talking about straddling TX/LA on Monday. Lol. Take your pick I guess. Yep as always wait and see. :)
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Quoting iceman55:
thank


how are you?
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Quoting gaweatherboi:
What are the ensemble models for? Just wondering because of all the lines going west and northwest but the white line curves earlier.


ensembles are a number of runs of the same model with slight difference in each run. The slight difference can be made to the physics or "guts", if you will, of each model run, or to the data that tells them what the atmosphere is like at the beginning of their simulation (the initial conditions). They show how the models respond to slightly different initial conditions. If given only a touch of different initial conditions, the ensemble "members" produce wildly different solutions then that lowers confidence in the model forecast. If in spite of their slight differences the models come up with more-or-less the same solution, that increases confidence in the forecast. Ensembles produce a sense of the predictability of the atmosphere at any given time.
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Quoting iceman55:
im back


hello
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Quoting jurakantaino:
Is this a weather blog or a US Football discussion blog?


ha definitely a weather blog, but we get distracted, sorry :P
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Is this a weather blog or a US Football discussion blog?
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109 days til X-Mas!
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Quoting TexNowNM:
I am hopeful it will just be rain for SE Tx/La. We'll just have to wait and see. Goodnight Homeless and everyone else.


Goodnight. Sorry. Between football and computer problems having trouble keeping caught up. Wonder if I'm too old to have ADD? Lol. Take Care. :)
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. We'll see Sunday. :)


Amen! haha
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What are the ensemble models for? Just wondering because of all the lines going west and northwest but the white line curves earlier.
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Quoting serialteg:


so how bout them cowboys ... :P


Lol. We'll see Sunday. :)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.