New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:
i'm back what i miss lol


tropical storm fred
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane 3 lows


hmmmm, I saw one earlier today that had a storm on top of the TX/LA border. Is it still showing that? I am not seeing it now.....Where are they showing these at now? Sorry for all the questions...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Models are predicting the storm should go west for the next 48 hours and then a northerly track. What other factors are in play that may push the storm more south?
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Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane yes gfs


on the GFS, what do I look at exactly? What one do I click on? This is the new model run right?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sry lol i'm tired :P Just NORTH of Due west 275 movement on the 11pm advisory.
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Left Doak campbell stadium forty five minutes ago. Can't believe we lost.
In other news, is Tropical Storm Fred moving WSW?
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Quoting gaweatherboi:


It does really! Im going to sell it. (Back to weather) I have been having a bad feeling about that name Grace since the beginning of the hurricane season. If we get to it, it may be something big.


yeah you should, and yeah, grace sounds intimidating
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting tornadodude:


really? that blows.


It does really! Im going to sell it. (Back to weather) I have been having a bad feeling about that name Grace since the beginning of the hurricane season. If we get to it, it may be something big.
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Quoting iceman55:
Link

new modelrun


ok, now - I'm not seeing anything about the GOM....what is up? This is confusing....
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Quoting gaweatherboi:


I feel cheated, i paid 1200 for this junk.


really? that blows.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting tornadodude:


right at $600 from walmart


I feel cheated, i paid 1200 for this junk.
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Quoting iceman55:
im now


ok
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting iceman55:
SykKid nope .more storm lol haha


did you just add me on fb?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting gaweatherboi:


How much did that cost you?


right at $600 from walmart
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting tornadodude:


I have a dell inspiron 1545


How much did that cost you?
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Quoting gaweatherboi:
Question! Why doesnt anyone ever go to tropics chat? Wouldnt that be more convenient in getting immediate responses from people?


haha it used to get hectic when alot of people would get on, but at times like this, it would be good
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Question! Why doesnt anyone ever go to tropics chat? Wouldnt that be more convenient in getting immediate responses from people?
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Quoting gaweatherboi:
Dude its a Dell Inspiron 1526 i think


I have a dell inspiron 1545
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting iceman55:
look to Fred stall ???


looks like he will slow down a bit
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Dude its a Dell Inspiron 1526 i think
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Quoting gaweatherboi:
I hate my laptop had to reboot. Back to the named storms 29/16/8 i think thats a little too over the edge maybe 10/4/2


that sucks, but yeah, i can see 10/4/2

personally i was thinking 8/3/2
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
I hate my laptop had to reboot. Back to the named storms 29/16/8 i think thats a little too over the edge maybe 10/4/2
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Quoting iceman55:
n.h.c at 2.00am ???


i think so..
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
so is there going to be a 2?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yep. Still waiting on models. Sigh. I need a new hobby. ;) Lol. Goodnight y'all. It was fun.


haha yeah, me too :P goodnight
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting tornadodude:


wow its getting late


Yep. Still waiting on models. Sigh. I need a new hobby. ;) Lol. Goodnight y'all. It was fun.
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Quoting iceman55:
:0


wow its getting late
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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