New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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AL, 07, 2009090806, , BEST, 0, 118N, 267W, 45, 1000, TS

Fred gettin his grove on right now

that 45 is in knots, so 50mph
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Nite all...I will check back in tomorrow for sure...
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oh,ok. I got it.
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Quoting btwntx08:

why say new cc???


What is CC?
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Hi-ya Frrrred!

Tropical Storm Fred
Wind: 40 MPH — Location: 11.8N 26.3W — Movement: W
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Quoting btwntx08:
looks like it has a storm heading toward cc not good


cc?
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test
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Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane yep :)


ok, so I guess I need to still keep an eye on the GOM then.....? At first I was thinking that they weren't showing anything anymore...
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Fred won't make it to the east coast because Wilma locked him out.
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I tell you everyone in Doak thought the last pass was a TD. It was pure shock. We should have won the game but instead UM did the standard hook in the last quarter. There were three UM fans in section 5-4 and they were about to be eaten alive.
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Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane any hope ??


ok, so 2 aoi going into LA? Is that what you are seeing? I saw something kinda in the middle of Texas as well. Am I seeing just 1 going into different places or is there more than one? Just trying to figure this out...
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Someone said TS Fred is moving a few degrees north of west. Therefore the center of Fred had just jogged southward but was/is not moving wsw.
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goodnight guys!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane did u see it


Don't think so....can you give me a specific link or something please....
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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