New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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StormW which MJO forecast map do you like the best the above one or this one below...

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i dont know if what i posted was correct heh
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Quoting BenBIogger:
Positive Nao.



what dos that mean
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The way I figure it it that the aborigines sense an acute infringement upon their territorial imperatives and are retailiating with agressive anti-establishement behavior.


(
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That looked like a bad Thunderstorm Aussie ...how much rain did you get?
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Are we going to get back to the tropics?
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Quoting StormW:


It don't say nothin'...ya gotta read it! Just kidding.

That image shows the downward MJO motion (red and orange) and upward motion (green) forecast


Now dam it StormW i trying to read your mind again does the green mean good or bad.........ROFLMAO
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Quoting serialteg:


what does that image say, exactly?


Sorry about that...Basically i find these particular maps/model rather interesting as the highlight potential areas of sinking/rising air.Areas shaded in green indicate the possibility of rising air which is what your looking for if you like tc's and the brownish indicates sinking air which is not what you want when looking for positive indicators for tc development.

As of now the 40-day Chi predicts we might see some favorable conditions around that time.
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It would appear that today a lot of lights are on... but not very many people are home :)

On a weather note.....
Weather overlay on 850 MB Vorticity Underlay

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Good Morning/Pre-Afternoon!

96L is not quite a TD...Fred looking like it might form tomorrow...TD 7...today.
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.
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Quoting StormW:


I know you believe you understand what you think I said...but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!


An oldie but goodie. Always good for a chuckle!
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Climate records broken

# August warmest on record for Australia
# Winter warmest on record for New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia

The latest temperatures recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology show that August 2009 will go down in the record books as Australia%u2019s warmest August, while winter was only 0.01C away from setting a record.

Dr David Walland, of the Bureau of Meteorology National Climate Centre, said August was a most extraordinary month, with Australian mean temperatures 2.47C above the long-term average, breaking the previous record by 0.98C%.

He said August saw particularly high day-time temperatures, with the national mean maximum being 3.20C above average, which was 1.14C above the previous record set in 2006.

August culminated in a record-breaking heat-wave during the second half of the month which saw maximum temperatures in excess of 37C across Western Australia, New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory, including new state August records for New South Wales (37.8C at Mungindi on the 24th) and Queensland (38.5C at Bedourie on the 29th). 87 stations with long-term records set new August record high maximum temperatures.

Abnormally warm conditions in June and July combined with record breaking heat during August to give an Australian-wide mean winter temperature of 16.6C, some 1.33C above average, which fell 0.01C short of the previous record set in 1996. NSW, South Australia and Victoria all had their warmest winters on record.

Every state and territory experienced above average temperatures during winter, Dr Walland said.

The outlook for the coming spring suggests that above average temperatures are likely across the whole of Australia. This is a result of recent warm conditions in the Indian Ocean as well as warming in the Pacific. The seasonal outlook is available from here
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Positive Nao.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


You so crazy, Images dont talk!! lol
Quoting StormW:


It don't say nothin' ya gotta read it! Just kidding.

That image shows the downward MJO motion (red and orange) and upward motion (green) forecast


gotta brush back that mjo thing... i have an inbox message from adrian i'll have to re-read

they say images speak a thousand words!
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


You so crazy, Images dont talk!! lol


It says "I think I can, I think I can"
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Quoting 786:
What are the GFS ensembles seeing that is turning 96L South at around 50W to below 15N?


Bill Gates stationed in the Azores lol
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115. 786
What are the GFS ensembles seeing that is turning 96L South at around 50W to below 15N?
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Quoting serialteg:


what does that image say, exactly?


You so crazy, Images dont talk!! lol
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Quoting TampaSpin:


You also mean! Do what i think, not what i said!....HEHEHE


do as i say, say not as i do because the sh'ts so deep you can't run away...

i beg to differ on the contrary agree with every word that you say!

i loved green day
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Quoting TampaSpin:


You also mean! Do what i think, not what i said!....HEHEHE


Who's on first, What's on second and I dont know is on third.....

err nevermind lol
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G'day all, just added some pics of the Thunderstorm Sydney had today to my blog, Link
Cheers
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Quoting hurricane23:
Having said that the 40 day 200-hPa velocity potential forecast says we might see some favorable conditions in few weeks as we had into the month of my birthday. I have my doupts though the way things have been down there so far this season. you can get those 15-40 day outlooks here.


what does that image say, exactly?
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Quoting Dakster:


Did you know that until recently 50% of all people that got divorced were men.


Times they are a changin lol
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Quoting StormW:


I know you believe you understand what you think I said...but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!


You also mean! Do what i think, not what i said!....HEHEHE
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Quoting StormW:


I know you believe you understand what you think I said...but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!


LMAO
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Quoting StormW:


I know you believe you understand what you think I said...but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!


ROFLMAO
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


did you know that 56.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot?


Thats exactly what i did so how accurate was I......LMAO
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.
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Having said that the 40 day 200-hPa velocity potential forecast says we might see some favorable conditions in few weeks as we had into the month of my birthday. I have my doupts though the way things have been down there so far this season. you can get those 15-40 day outlooks here.
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Quoting jeffs713:

LOL. good one.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


did you know that 56.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot?


Did you know that until recently 50% of all people that got divorced were men.
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Strong anticyclone placed over 96L, can't wait till the canes play tonight, now back to the tropics.
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Guys, question

Are the clay-colored lines underneath the anticyclone that i've been hearing about over 96L?

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.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL SYNOPSIS SPECIAL EDITION SEPTEMBER 07, 2009 ISSUED 2:20 A.M. EDT


Hey StormW.....good Labor Day my friend.
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Uhh.. 96L looks great. I don't know what some of you guys are seeing, its actually more organized than yesterday.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Seems this blog has 45% downcasters 45% wishcasters and 5% that have no idea and 4% that think they have an idea and 1% that probably know to much and gets them in trouble with the other 99%!


did you know that 56.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

I would actually keep raise the percentage for your 3rd and 4th ones to close to 15% for each lol
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NVRM, the links not working
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Seems this blog has 45% downcasters 45% wishcasters and 5% that have no idea and 4% that think they have an idea and 1% that probably know to much and gets them in trouble with the other 99%!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:




That would be completely stupid if they did that. It needs to fire one good round of thunderstorms then as soon as that happens it would be classified.


what is that icon, a face twitch? LOL
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:




That would be completely stupid if they did that. It needs to fire one good round of thunderstorms then as soon as that happens it would be classified.
LMAO, i love the smiley twitch.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Did you know that 83.7% of all ststistics are made up on the spot?

LOL. good one.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It should be moved back to orange, convection is lacking too much.




That would be completely stupid if they did that. It needs to fire one good round of thunderstorms then as soon as that happens it would be classified.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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