New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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236. IKE
12Z NOGAPS...


12Z GFS...


12Z CMC...
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12 Z 96L Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




12 Z 96L Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Quoting Patrap:


That would be spelled,er.A-H-E-A-D..must be a Bama Grad too.

LOL Struggle?..Kinda Like Bama,struggled with er,..VT ?


VT is a much much better team than Washington tho, there is no comparison

VT was ranked #7 in preseason and Washington hasnt won a game since October of 2007.

On the flip side, LSU did travel across the country and they get big props for that considering some teams in the SEC (cough cough Florida), dont travel like that ever.
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Quoting iluvjess:
Normally the polls come out Monday afternoon but we still have a week 1 game tonight (FSU/Miami) so I really don't know for sure. It may be tomo.


oh ok, thanks :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Normally the polls come out Monday afternoon but we still have a week 1 game tonight (FSU/Miami) so I really don't know for sure. It may be tomo.
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TPC/TAFB 72 hour surface forecast


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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
when do the new polls come out?


I personally do not know
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
The new pools will be out later today. Just heard Sam Bradford's ijury is a stage two. He will be out for a while. I hate that for him.
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when do the new polls come out?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
#1 I said that several hours ago. #2 they updated the satellite and the latest pic is showing an increase in convection and #3 I did not state in that sentence that it should be moved to red because I would be contradicting my self, I stated that the convection was rising.


They wont ever take something off Red due to a brief loss of convection especially with the model support this thing has. No, 96L will stay red at 2 and might become a TD by 11 pm.
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Special graphical update from Analyst Wx!

Mid Atlantic storm forecast by (FIC) Hunter Outten.

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


how bout those midshipmen!


Nice job, and we here at Purdue won too, world must be ending soon.....
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting serialteg:
i guess ill never know why kangaroos have only edible legs and not the rest :/


interesting article about eating them link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, IU actually won, so first games must be odd xD


how bout those midshipmen!
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Quoting serialteg:


that was until the 4th, and they do say the 1st games are funky for teams...


yeah, IU actually won, so first games must be odd xD
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you just said it should be reduced to orange....
#1 I said that several hours ago. #2 they updated the satellite and the latest pic is showing an increase in convection and #3 I did not state in that sentence that it should be moved to red because I would be contradicting my self, I stated that the convection was rising.
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i guess ill never know why kangaroos have only edible legs and not the rest :/
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96L makes it past 40W on the 12Z GFS. Looks like another trough picks it up before 60W.
180 hrs.


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Quoting iluvjess:
Sure was funny to see LSU struggle with an unranked Washigton team Saturday night! LOL Guess I can go ahaed and check mark that game as a WIN!


that was until the 4th, and they do say the 1st games are funky for teams...
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all, 2:30am here


oh wow, goodnight!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting NWWNCAVL:
Thanks to all...C ya'll later this week...


youre welcome, stay strong
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Goodnight all, 2:30am here
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Quoting iluvjess:
Sure was funny to see LSU struggle with an unranked Washigton team Saturday night! LOL Guess I can go ahaed and check mark that game as a WIN!


how bout them nittany lions
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still quite weak as of 1:45AM EDT.

07/1145 UTC 11.9N 21.7W T1.0/1.0 96L


Not sure what the SAB's deal is, the TAFB came in with TD-TS numbers.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection beginning to fire once more, indicative that 96L is strengthening.


you just said it should be reduced to orange....
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Quoting serialteg:


just like mc donalds is to a hindu! lol

ew! but point taken
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Thanks to all...C ya'll later this week...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

They taste great, barely any fat but only the hind legs can be eaten.


:O and why is that!!!
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Quoting Jerrob:
that's just gross!


just like mc donalds is to a hindu! lol
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Quoting NWWNCAVL:
Totaly off subjuect and I apologize in advance if i offend anyone.

My daughter is having surgery tomorrow at Brenners Childrens Hospital and i am reaching out for Prayers to anyone willing...The more the better...8:00 a.m....TIA...

No hard feelings if a Ban is in order...
prayers go out in abundance to you and your family...God Bless my dear..
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Quoting Dakster:


And how to jump really high.

Aussie, but how do they taste?

They taste great, barely any fat but only the hind legs can be eaten.
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Quoting Dakster:


And how to jump really high.

Aussie, but how do they taste?


one of my favorite foods is shark kebab, mm with tostones ... fried plantains ... and argentinian chimichurri

<3
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Quoting Dakster:


And how to jump really high.

Aussie, but how do they taste?
that's just gross!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

But they did teach Kangaroos to box


And how to jump really high.

Aussie, but how do they taste?
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Quoting melwerle:
Off topic but figured so many folks in here with such a wide array of jobs. If there is anyone who is in the construction biz, can you please email me? Just a question.

Heat has finally broken here in S. Cal and it feels AWESOME to not be sweating.


I know right! here in central GA it is past noon with the sun shining directly above us and it is only 72 degrees.. we're 10-15 degrees below normal. but this also means were in for a rough winter.. maybe we'll get snow again. cant remember the last time we got two snow storms in just one year. but id rather be in 100 plus degrees than in the negatives.
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Quoting tornadodude:

I'll pray
me too...
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Quoting serialteg:


because no one bothered to teach kangaroos how to write

But they did teach Kangaroos to box
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still quite weak as of 1:45AM EDT.

07/1145 UTC 11.9N 21.7W T1.0/1.0 96L


That number is from 7:45 this morning, and also the other agency was higher.
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Quoting NWWNCAVL:
Totaly off subjuect and I apologize in advance if i offend anyone.

My daughter is having surgery tomorrow at Brenners Childrens Hospital and i am reaching out for Prayers to anyone willing...The more the better...8:00 a.m....TIA...

No hard feelings if a Ban is in order...

You're in my prayers and you're having your own private "hurricane" in your life!! Don't worry, ask Dr Jesus to help, he has NEVER EVER LET ME DOWN, EVER!!
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Quoting Dakster:
AussieStorm - Thanks for the very detailed analysis. So an El Niño is not a good thing for rainfall for you, if it developes.

You need a La Niña to get back to normal.

Out of curiosity, why have records only been kept since 1950 in Australia? I thought Australia has been inhabited for a lot longer than the past 60 years.

most records go back 150 years, there are places in Australia with records only going back 60 years.
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NWWN - She's in mine. I've got two kids and one has had several surgeries and medical procedures since birth. It's tough, but he has also come out of it alot better off than he went in. I hope the same is true for your daughter!
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Link

Im still watching former invest 95 to see how it reacts to the trough.

I'm wondering if it will sneak under it due to being so weak. Looks like its possibly moving southwest or south of due west.
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Still quite weak as of 7:45AM EDT.

07/1145 UTC 11.9N 21.7W T1.0/1.0 96L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
AussieStorm - Thanks for the very detailed analysis. So an El Niño is not a good thing for rainfall for you, if it developes.

You need a La Niña to get back to normal.

Out of curiosity, why have records only been kept since 1950 in Australia? I thought Australia has been inhabited for a lot longer than the past 60 years.


because no one bothered to teach kangaroos how to write
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Considering we've only had TS Claudette in the GOM this year, it's about time something happened besides trough after trough after trough!! Hopefully things do not get to wild in the GOM!
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Quoting NWWNCAVL:
Totaly off subjuect and I apologize in advance if i offend anyone.

My daughter is having surgery tomorrow at Brenners Childrens Hospital and i am reaching out for Prayers to anyone willing...The more the better...8:00 a.m....TIA...

No hard feelings if a Ban is in order...


my prayer with you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AussieStorm - Thanks for the very detailed analysis. So an El Niño is not a good thing for rainfall for you, if it developes.

You need a La Niña to get back to normal.

Out of curiosity, why have records only been kept since 1950 in Australia? I thought Australia has been inhabited for a lot longer than the past 60 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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