New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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My 11AM public advisory TD Dujuan

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With all these troughs coming through... isn't this a sign that winter is going to be extra cold this year??
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275. Skyepony (Mod)
here's mtsat blackout schedule.. I posted what pertained to today.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Really becoming concerned about the satellite imagery problems in the past few weeks since they're our best tool in tracking and forecasting storms. It seems that the GOES-12 and METEOSAT satellites have been malfunctioning and glitching far more often in recent weeks than it ever has. Wondering if someone could shed some light on these problems and regarding the status of these two important satellites.


Don't know about the METOSAT issues, but the recent problems with GOES was due to servers that distribute the images, not the satellites.
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Quoting Dakster:


Did someone on the ISS flush the toilet outside by mistake?

Possibly.
Lmao.
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270. Skyepony (Mod)
Well the time stamp on the one Ameister posted is way before. The floater doesn't glitch till 1530..it should be blacked out at that time too.. Hope someone didn't forget to shield it from the sun.
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Quoting Patrap:
Who Won the NCAA Baseball trophy this Year too ?

Hmmmmmmm,..could it be,..er..yes,LSU

of course.
Looks Good in the Case next to TWO NCAA Football Trophies as well.

ESL by LSU






Ahem...Soon to be four. And that quiet little town in north central Florida never seems to be botherd by 'canes..or Noles for that matter ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_Gators#Football
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Fall 2009 GOES Eclipse Schedules
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Really becoming concerned about the satellite imagery problems in the past few weeks since they're our best tool in tracking and forecasting storms. It seems that the GOES-12 and METEOSAT satellites have been malfunctioning and glitching far more often in recent weeks than it ever has. Wondering if someone could shed some light on these problems and regarding the status of these two important satellites.
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Quoting Skyepony:
The time stamp on the last mtsat is well before black out

(3) EARTH-SENSOR-SCAN INHIBIT OPERATIONS TO AVOID SOLAR INTRUSION ARE
SCHEDULED AS FOLLOWS:
10:14 UTC - 19:14 UTC FROM SEPTEMBER 3 - OCTOBER 11
THESE OPERATIONS MAY CAUSE DISTRTION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.


.."Go get yer self some Cheap Sunglasses's"..
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Quoting Ameister12:

The satellite imagery seems to be glitching.


Did someone on the ISS flush the toilet outside by mistake?
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hmmm..

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259. Skyepony (Mod)
The time stamp on the last mtsat is well before black out

(3) EARTH-SENSOR-SCAN INHIBIT OPERATIONS TO AVOID SOLAR INTRUSION ARE
SCHEDULED AS FOLLOWS:
10:14 UTC - 19:14 UTC FROM SEPTEMBER 3 - OCTOBER 11
THESE OPERATIONS MAY CAUSE DISTRTION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.
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Quoting IKE:
"The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast."..........

Even Dr. Masters says "recurving"......and not curving.


12Z NAM...


azorescaster
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Quoting Dakster:


What the heck is that?

The imagery seems to be glitching.
Look at post 237 for more glitchy imagery.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Oh god!


What the heck is that?
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Have fun all, I check back later. Time to go out and find me some Kangaroo hind legs.

I may pop in when the Hurricanes make landfall in Tallahassee.
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Oh god!
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Quoting Skyepony:
Dujaun appears to have blown up so fast the floater has malfunctioned or the black blob we spotted on GOES12 last night hit mtsat. Hoping for a momentary glitch here..

I saw that.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS...


12Z GFS...


12Z CMC...


NOGAPS has the "possibly, could be, might be remanents of Erika" heading to visit you.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all, 2:30am here


G'night... Thanks for the info...
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Quoting Patrap:
12 Z 96L Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



you have to laugh at "invest" it sends it to a landfall in africa.
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Marine Weather Discussion


INTENSE CONVECTION ENHANCED OVER THE SW GULF HAS INDUCED A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH.
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Quoting Weather456:
96L - DT numbers

SAB - 1.0
TAFB - 2.5


SAB - is conservative, TAFB - is republican *jokes*.

Tafb is too extreme, I'd say about 1.75
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237. Skyepony (Mod)
Dujaun appears to have blown up so fast the floater has malfunctioned or the black blob we spotted on GOES12 last night hit mtsat. Hoping for a momentary glitch here..
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236. IKE
12Z NOGAPS...


12Z GFS...


12Z CMC...
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.