New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting zebralove:
thank you I have been cvonfused since they put up td7.....sigh am i ever gonna figure this out?


Don't feel bad Zebralove. When you asked someone to put up a graphic showing both I looked for one. Lol. The td7 threw me too.
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Impressive FRED!!



If the trend continues, FRED soon be hurricane
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There is one office (NHC) issuing advisories on TS Fred and at least six offices up the NE coast issuing advisories on the low. Between those six offices that low will be dissected every which way.
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Quoting IKE:


I was agreeing with your comments in the post I replied to. A non-tropical system affected the NC/SC area(heavy rains) and a tropical storm named Fred will never affect anyone. It is peculiar the way it works out.


Yeah. That's what I was thinking. It would seem the man on TWC thought so too. I've never seen him before and didn't catch his name. But it was refreshing to see someone on that channel express an independent thought. Poor guy. That's probably why he got stuck in the early, early slot before AL. Lol.
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Ensembles continue to dip Fred back sharply to the southwest.
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1630. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm sure they do. Was talking about other people wanting to find out information about it who aren't familiar with the area. Just a thought. No biggy.


I was agreeing with your comments in the post I replied to. A non-tropical system affected the NC/SC area(heavy rains) and a tropical storm named Fred will never affect anyone. It is peculiar the way it works out.
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC



THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN STALL WED AND WED NIGHT NE OF CAPE HATTERAS AS HIGH PRES BUILD S FROM CANADA ACROSS ERN NT1 AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SE THU WITH THE LOW THEN MOVE TO ARND THE RIDGE THU AND FRI AND EXITING THE AREA SAT.
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thank you I have been cvonfused since they put up td7.....sigh am i ever gonna figure this out?
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Quoting IKE:



There's too much emphasis placed on only following named storms. I'm sure the people that live in that area know what's been going on, unless they live under a rock.


I'm sure they do. Was talking about other people wanting to find out information about it who aren't familiar with the area. Just a thought. No biggy.
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HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

OTHER DETAIL ISSUES INCLUDE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH THE GUIDANCE BRING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING THE WAVE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE WHICH KEEPS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH LAST NIGHTS PROGS. 12Z MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO BRING A LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE BAROCLINIC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY...SO IT WAS INCLUDED WITHIN THE PRESSURES AS A WEAKER FEATURE.


HPC Preliminary Graphics
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Quoting zebralove:
can someone put up an image that shows both invest 96 and fred at the same time on the same image? Please and thank you


Invest 96L became Fred yesterday lol.
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Quoting zebralove:
can someone put up an image that shows both invest 96 and fred at the same time on the same image? Please and thank you


96L and Fred are the same systems.

96L developed into TD 7 and TD 7 developed into Fred. Some websites havnt updated their info as yet.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1623. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good Morning Robert, 456,Texas, especially south Texas is in drought. At the very least this mess in the gulf should give them some relief. Have been watching on TV about the low off the east coast. Giving them problems. I agree with the guy on TWC. All those named storms didn't affect people as much as this un-named storm.
Would seem they would have some other way of designating a storm like that. If for no other reason than to have a centralized place to find out information about it. I haven't been able to find a lot on line. I could imagine being someone traveling to that area or checking on a loved ones welfare. It looks awful. While going through the models, I saw this that seems to show something headed toward east Fl. Not sure what though.

Link



There's too much emphasis placed on only following named storms. I'm sure the people that live in that area know what's been going on, unless they live under a rock.
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can someone put up an image that shows both invest 96 and fred at the same time on the same image? Please and thank you
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Great update as usual 456. Thanks. Looks like ECMWF deepens the east coast low without moving it much for a couple days as you mentioned.

Link
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Good Morning again

Hybrid System dumps heavy rains across the Eastern United States; Fred is born

Thanks
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
..
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Robertn1:
just nothing to blog about for me. nothing has threaten Florida's east coast. I don't think we will even get a little storm. we have had decent rain but, we need a little more so we aren't in the drought again.


Good Morning Robert, 456,Texas, especially south Texas is in drought. At the very least this mess in the gulf should give them some relief. Have been watching on TV about the low off the east coast. Giving them problems. I agree with the guy on TWC. All those named storms didn't affect people as much as this un-named storm.
Would seem they would have some other way of designating a storm like that. If for no other reason than to have a centralized place to find out information about it. I haven't been able to find a lot on line. I could imagine being someone traveling to that area or checking on a loved ones welfare. It looks awful. While going through the models, I saw this that seems to show something headed toward east Fl. Not sure what though.

Link
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.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Morning all. I see the good Doc was rather conservative in his estimate of when Fred would form..... lol.... three advisories already!

It'll be interesting to see how much Fred can strengthen before it hits the shear that's currently swiping 95L's convection.....

Later!
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Good Morning all
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
just nothing to blog about for me. nothing has threaten Florida's east coast. I don't think we will even get a little storm. we have had decent rain but, we need a little more so we aren't in the drought again.
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Good Morning everyone! I'm glad you're still enjoying the convention apocalyps. ;)
Well, I've looked at all the latest models concerning what may or may not develop in the GOM. I read all of the updates I could find. And still dunno what will happen. Lol. But at least I'm in good company. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE VICINITY IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL ZONES...
MAINLY OUT OF THE NE TO E. SHIPS AND BUOYS ARE GENERALLY
REPORTING 1-2 FT SEAS...BUT BUOY 42055 IS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS
MIGHT BE A FT OR TWO HIGHER OVER THE SW WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE W WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SFC TROUGH OR LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NW ZONE. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP...THERE IS SPREAD IN THE TIMING...PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY.
FOR NOW...USING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT DAYS 4
AND 5...WHICH IS A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST.
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Quoting apocalyps:
convention is outstanding


Sweet, I'll bring my family to the convention center to discuss Fred.
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convention is outstanding
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It will still take a miracle in order for Fred to even come close to the United States.
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I really believe computer models do not have a good hold on the steering currents ahead of TS Fred. The next 48 hours should prove today's forecast track as being approximately correct or not. I think tomorrow models will be shifting the cone to the left.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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