New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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buoy 13001 tells us zilch about its location tho

anyway as I said before, that buoy is south of the CV Islands
Quoting StormW:


Is that a pinhole eye? LOL

Developing nicely, how's the future shear?
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NexSat GOM Viz Loop
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still looks disorganized to me, but not to the NHC.



and which one of you guys gets paid to forecast these things.....?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting Patrap:


Without a Buoy Location..its a Mystery ..as to location
lol, it is buoy 13001.
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Quoting Patrap:


Without a Buoy Location..its a Mystery ..as to location


Thats south of the CV Islands
Quoting StormW:


TD soon
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As of the 12z models i am using the BAMD.
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Anything up in the BOC, or just a blowup?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Conditions at 13001 as of
1500 GMT on 09/07/2009:

Note: This report is more than two hours old
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SW (230 deg)


Without a Buoy Location..its a Mystery ..as to location
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still looks disorganized to me, but not to the NHC.



In what way does it look disorganized.

1) LLC
2) Convection over center'
3) Banding
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OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. STRONG
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROVIDING A LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES OTHER THAN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FAR SRN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR KEY WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALSO PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM APALACHICOLA BAY THROUGH 25N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 23N W OF 93W
The GOMEX Shear is high..upper Westerlies...
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BUOY 13001


Conditions at 13001 as of
1500 GMT on 09/07/2009:

Note: This report is more than two hours old
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.9 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SW (230 deg)
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Still looks disorganized to me, but not to the NHC.

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So TD 7 at 5 p.m. it is. In my experience and shoddy memory, if the TWO says that they might initiate advisories, it means they WILL initiate advisories. Don't think they've ever included that line in a TWO and then not paid it off.

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The TWO pretty much tells me we'll see TD 7 at 5.
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whoever is posting the ESL stuff is really messing up my computer, the page isnt loading all the way because of it
Quoting Patrap:


Starting to look extratropical, imo.
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That COC off N Carolina has dropped about 15+" of rain offshore, per radar estimates! Everyone says this COC is cold cored, isn't there a link to that computer graphic?
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TWO is out

Looks like a TD by 5 pm, judging by the "TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING" wording and the organization trend.
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NHC currently not impressed with anything either in the GOM or off the SE Coast
Quoting Orcasystems:
Sorry to interrupt Redneck Sports show... but I thought I would try a weather post.

That red is right on my head lol
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

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95
Quoting Patrap:

AOI at 20N,95W bears watching over the next few days!! Shear is around 20-25KT, CIMSS also shows the anticyclone is off to its W and the COC has only penetrated to the mid levels!! Stay tuned, this could BE INTERESTING!!
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Windy and rainy on the Outer Banks.
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Sorry to interrupt Redneck Sports show... but I thought I would try a weather post.

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297. BGMom
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
With all these troughs coming through... isn't this a sign that winter is going to be extra cold this year??


I would really like to know this too! I should change my name to "Prayingforsnow"
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Which astronaut lifted his face shield to take a whiff anyway?

Hello all.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 071735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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Futuremet - Looks like if that area around central florida got out in the water we might have something.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
That's because we know we'll play one or the other in the SEC championship ;)
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I will agree that Florida did a lousy job of scheduling this year. Having said that, schedules are made far in advance, and I suspect that when this schedule was made and contracted, many believed that Tebow and Dustin Doe would have gone to the NFL.

On topic: is that wee bit of circulation down by the Keys cause any concerns? And it looks like this is just not a year for the large storms to threaten the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Personaly, I can live with that; it's been a wet summer and good for the aquifer. Normally I grudgingly want a storm or two to dump a ton of water on the peninsula just to help keep the aquifer filled (or somewhat so). Dry spells and sudden rains usually mean big sinkholes. And I certainly can live without another year of fires.

Semi-professional thoughts?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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