New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
btw u r on my ignore list.


he's got a point tho, i'll take $90,000 a year, btw, i really dont care if you put me on your ignore list, just saying
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Speaking of Tigers, Tiger sure made a run at this morning. Just a lil too late.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


boy i know a lot of folks that would take that right and live pretty decently. It sounds to me that you might be just a bit hoidy-toidy. Your answers also come across a bit trollish at times..btw
HOW? how the hell do my answers come across trollish? WTF, i'm giving my opinions and I am a troll?
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361. Hurricane009 1:04 PM CDT on September 07, 2009


New Blog posted for those interested
Action: Quote | Ignore User

Obviously the Blogger was referring to thier OWN new Entry.

Get a Grip guys,..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Besides,B_E_S_I_D_E_S.."besides",..LOL"

Easy tiger! LOL I'm still waking up. Besides, check your spelling,grammar and punctuation before you play english professor and start correcting others... LOL Don't get your undies in a wad! I'm sure you tigers will become a more powerful force before yall come see us in T-town. I would much rather see a good game.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I don't see a new blog up from Dr. Masters--did you mean your own patrap?


Who said new blog? Dr. J wouldn't
t do that after 8 pages unless something imminent was occuring.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I don't see a new blog up from Dr. Masters--did you mean your own patrap?


I think you best Look at the Post again Sport,..that aint me yer quoting

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
i know someone that works at the NHC, it is not "big bucks", im talking about a $90,000 salary, which is not that much.


boy i know a lot of folks that would take that right and live pretty decently. It sounds to me that you might be just a bit hoidy-toidy. Your answers also come across a bit trollish at times..btw
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY BE FORMING
. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

All aboard the Depression train!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I cant get over how funny u r, all you had to do you lazy bum is to go to google and search buoy 13001.


LOL

Buoy etiquette..?
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lol nevermind im done, i know where the buoy is Canes09, but many others dont

Why didnt you post the location of the buoy in your original post like everyone else does?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
lol im sorry I just cant get over how funny that is

All canes09 had to do was copy that one extra line that shows where the buoy was or gee I dont know tell us where it is in his post and he is calling everyone else lazy for not looking it up? LMAO
I cant get over how funny u r, all you had to do you lazy bum is to go to google and search buoy 13001.
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Canes2009, the LOCATION OF THE BUOY

Buoy 13001 doesnt tell us jack; tell us physically where the buoy is; as in South of the CV Islands

it is right on that same page you posted the rest of the info
Doesn't look disorganized to me.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
On satellite it looks poor, imho.

It looks poor because your seeing it from to far away, try a different satellite angle and zoom in, you can see it more clearly.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
canes2009 you dont take the time to just post where it is and you call us lazy for not looking it up?

That is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard in my life LMFAO
HAHA, hilarious, not, Do you not see how i posted "Buoy 13001", what do you want me to tell you?
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lol im sorry I just cant get over how funny that is

All canes09 had to do was copy that one extra line that shows where the buoy was or gee I dont know tell us where it is in his post and he is calling everyone else lazy for not looking it up? LMAO
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
i know someone that works at the NHC, it is not "big bucks", im talking about a $90,000 salary, which is not that much.


Well its enough to put food on the table.
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96-L has the classic look of a developing cyclone..outflow looks good...
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Quoting Patrap:
FOlks can do a Lot but they sure cant read minds..LOL

Heres how one Posts a Buoy

Station 42055 (LLNR 1101) - Bay of Campeche

OUIKscat
Pressure is too high, 29.95in.
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Station 13001 - NE Extension

Owned and maintained by the PIRATAPrediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Atlas Buoy
12.000 N 23.000 W (12%uFFFD0'0" N 23%uFFFD0'0" W)Anemometer height: 4 m above site elevation


Meteorological Observations from Nearby Stations and Ships

Latest Satellite Wind Map for this Area


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at 13001 as of
1500 GMT on 09/07/2009:

Note: This report is more than two hours old Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT 1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT 0] Central European [GMT 1] Eastern European [GMT 2] Moscow [GMT 3] USSR Zone 3 [GMT 4] USSR Zone 4 [GMT 5] USSR Zone 5 [GMT 6] USSR Zone 6 [GMT 7] China Coast [GMT 8] Japan Standard [GMT 9] Guam Standard [GMT 10] GMT 11 International Date Line East [GMT 12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.9 %uFFFDF
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 %uFFFDF
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.1 kts
Wind Direction (WDIR): SW (230 deg)

Data from this station are not quality controlled by NDBC

Previous 25 observations
MM DD HHMM
GMT LAT
deg LON
deg WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
%uFFFDF WTMP
%uFFFDF
09 07 1000 11.50 -23.00 NNW 21 - 29.80 - 79.0 81.3
09 07 0700 11.50 -22.99 NNW 20 - 29.77 - 80.6 81.5
09 07 0400 11.50 -23.01 W 20 - 29.79 - 78.4 81.5
09 07 0200 11.51 -23.00 WNW 10 - 29.86 - 79.5 81.5
09 06 2200 11.51 -23.00 NW 14 - 29.88 - 81.7 81.7
09 06 1900 11.51 -23.01 NNW 12 - 29.87 - 81.9 81.9
09 06 1500 11.50 -23.01 NW 12 - 29.91 - 81.3 82.2
09 06 1300 11.50 -23.01 NW 13 - 29.95 - 81.3 82.0
09 06 1000 11.50 -23.01 NW 11 - 29.97 - 80.4 81.9
09 06 0900 11.50 -23.02 NW 10 - 29.96 - 81.3 81.9
09 06 0800 11.50 -23.01 NW 12 - 29.94 - 81.1 81.9
09 06 0700 11.50 -23.01 WNW 13 - 29.92 - 80.8 82.0
09 06 0400 11.50 -23.01 WNW 11 - 29.93 - 81.0 82.2
09 06 0200 11.49 -23.01 WNW 9 - 29.96 - 81.0 82.4
09 05 2200 11.49 -23.01 WNW 9 - 29.99 - 81.1 82.6
09 05 2100 11.49 -23.00 WNW 6 - 29.98 - 80.8 82.6
09 05 1900 11.49 -23.00 W 3 - 29.96 - 81.1 82.4
09 05 1500 11.49 -23.00 SW 7 - 29.97 - 81.3 82.6
09 05 1400 11.50 -22.99 SW 9 - 29.98 - 81.0 82.4
09 05 1300 11.50 -22.99 SW 11 - 30.00 - 81.0 82.2
09 05 1000 11.49 -22.99 S 7 - 30.00 - 79.9 81.5
09 05 0900 11.50 -23.00 WSW 8 - 30.00 - 78.1 81.5
09 05 0800 11.50 -22.99 SSW 9 - 29.97 - 80.2 81.5
09 05 0700 11.50 -22.99 SSW 11 - 29.94 - 80.2 81.3

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
canes2009 you dont take the time to just post where it is and you call us lazy for not looking it up?

That is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard in my life LMFAO
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


That is why they get paid big bucks to do this stuff and you with the rest of us sit at a computer screen at home.
i know someone that works at the NHC, it is not "big bucks", im talking about a $90,000 salary, which is not that much.
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Quoting StormW:


From my early morning forecast:

At the time of my analysis and this synopsis, 96L has a well established, and rather large sized upper level anticyclone over it, providing excellent outflow in all quadrants. I expect further slow strengthening of 96L during the next 36-48 hours, based on the most recent wind shear map runs, projected path, and still decent SST's.


Thanks Storm, been away a few days and haven't read any forcasts, you, NHC or otherwise. Don't be so wordy, I understand.
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FOlks can do a Lot but they sure cant read minds..LOL

Heres how one Posts a Buoy

Station 42055 (LLNR 1101) - Bay of Campeche

OUIKscat
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Quoting tornadodude:


miamihurricanes 2009 vs. NHC
LOL, that is not what i mean, i'm just saying that to me it looks poor on satellite. No need to start a riot about it, just giving my honest opinion, and i am entitled to it.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

3) banding doesn't look so hot, but there is moderate shear over that area, but it looks moderately healthy. I believe we will have TD this evening, let's wait and see what the NHC says!


It has a anticyclone, so shear is light, rather than moderate.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still looks disorganized to me, but not to the NHC.



That is why they get paid big bucks to do this stuff and you with the rest of us sit at a computer screen at home.
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Hmm.. TD advisories at 5pm, perhaps? Usually when they fire the line 'TD may be forming', they're prompt with it.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
buoy 13001 tells us zilch about its location tho

anyway as I said before, that buoy is south of the CV Islands
Instead of being lazy why don't you search it on google?
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Quoting extreme236:


In what way does it look disorganized.

1) LLC
2) Convection over center'
3) Banding

3) banding doesn't look so hot, but there is moderate shear over that area, but it looks moderately healthy. I believe we will have TD this evening, let's wait and see what the NHC says!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
lol, it is buoy 13001.


I know that sport,..but the Buoy Location is also on the Page,not to difficult to add that Lil gem to yer post.
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well canes09, that is why the NHC are the experts lol

96L is very well organized
Quoting tornadodude:


and which one of you guys gets paid to forecast these things.....?


miamihurricanes 2009 vs. NHC
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting extreme236:


In what way does it look disorganized.

1) LLC
2) Convection over center'
3) Banding
On satellite it looks poor, imho.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
buoy 13001 tells us zilch about its location tho

anyway as I said before, that buoy is south of the CV Islands

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.