New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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96L might be like Hurricane Alberto (2000), but Alberto moved WNW/NW longer then 96L is predicted to.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 96 2009090718 BEST 0 124N 239W 25 1007 DB
Still no TD?
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Link
Latest sheer map from CIMSS! Sheer in the GOM is between 20-30KT for the most part, lower near the AOI in the BOC
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AL 96 2009090718 BEST 0 124N 239W 25 1007 DB
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
355. Bordonaro

As you stated Buoy 13001 is at 11.49N 23W - South of Cape Verdes Island
And a visual...
click on image for the buoy page.


Thanks!!
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Quoting btwntx08:


Anyone notices that the orientation of t'storm clusters in Gulf is oriented more north and south per the GFS rather than from sw to ne like yesterday afternoon? Should be a sign that shear is beginning to slighten a bit...
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SAB up to

07/1745 UTC 12.3N 23.5W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
you are not on my ignore list, I'm just saying that to me 90k is not a lot if you work at the NHC, btw Avila gets paid 2.5mil.


Is that for real?
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Asked about the GOM earlier, bit I think it's just a blow up in convection at the tail end of the stalled front. Lots of shear in the mid to northern Gulf,
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those salaries are public record...for anyone who wants to go to the trouble to look it up...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
that is what i was told. A friend of mine works at the NHC.


He may have outside interests (books, consulting) that may get him to that but there is no way that is his salary from the NHC. Total labor budget for the whole NHC is about $5.5 million (46 full time employees).
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Quoting iluvjess:
"Been round 50 years ,and 4 here,so One Lil Jacko from woodsville aint gonna rattle this Ol Marines er,shorts.."

Aaaah. The name calling and personal attacks begin... no suprise... lol.


Ssssspppppphhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting presslord:



Where in the world do you get the idea Avila makes $2.5 million?!?!?!?!?!?



not likely...he's a Fed employee...probably between $120,000 and $150,000
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
96L looks pretty durned good today!

My guess for 96L is something sort of like this.....



eh... maybe, but i was thinking more of a bermuda type storm. It'll move NW soon then turn back west a few days and then start to try a second recurve. Bermuda is ~5-7 days out.
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Quoting presslord:



Where in the world do you get the idea Avila makes $2.5 million?!?!?!?!?!?


I want that job! ;)

Afternoon everyone!
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Quoting presslord:



Where in the world do you get the idea Avila makes $2.5 million?!?!?!?!?!?
that is what i was told. A friend of mine works at the NHC.
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so, how does the GOM look?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
you are not on my ignore list, I'm just saying that to me 90k is not a lot if you work at the NHC, btw Avila gets paid 2.5mil.



Where in the world do you get the idea Avila makes $2.5 million?!?!?!?!?!?
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Quoting stormy2008:


That's what I had meant to say... thanks for the correction.
no prob
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Thank You
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
no, it dropped 0.05in. in 1 hour.


That's what I had meant to say... thanks for the correction.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
What is the pressure at that location??


29.87 in
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
now do u get what i mean?


yeah, so, we should definitely all stop fighting over dumb stuff. enough with the name calling, and let's turn our focus back to the tropics xD
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting stormy2008:
5 mb pressure drop in 1 hour at bouy 41013.
no, it dropped 0.05in. in 1 hour.
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355. Bordonaro

As you stated Buoy 13001 is at 11.49N 23W - South of Cape Verdes Island
And a visual...
click on image for the buoy page.

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.05 mb pressure drop in 1 hour at buoy 41013.
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Quoting tornadodude:


alright, I see your point, I'd work there for 90 thousand
now do u get what i mean?
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Quoting cyclonekid:
How often do the QuikScat images update???


Roughly every 1 1/2 hours. Each orbit takes 100 minutes. The same general area will get two images a day.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Miami's not talking 'bout me is he? :D Because I beat him to it.


lol...Nah he was talking bout me and an earlier post I made ragarding making $90,000.
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"Been round 50 years ,and 4 here,so One Lil Jacko from woodsville aint gonna rattle this Ol Marines er,shorts.."

Aaaah. The name calling and personal attacks begin... no suprise... lol.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
you are not on my ignore list, I;m just saying that to me 90k is not a lot if you work at the NHC, btw Avila gets paid 2.5mil.


alright, I see your point, I'd work there for 90 thousand
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
How often do the QuikScat images update???
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Miami's not talking 'bout me is he? :D Because I beat him to it.


haha not sure
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


he's got a point tho, i'll take $90,000 a year, btw, i really dont care if you put me on your ignore list, just saying
you are not on my ignore list, I'm just saying that to me 90k is not a lot if you work at the NHC, btw Avila gets paid 2.5mil.
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I miss the good ole days....See everyone tommorow for the update on 96L...WW
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Quoting tornadodude:


he's got a point tho, i'll take $90,000 a year, btw, i really dont care if you put me on your ignore list, just saying


Miami's not talking 'bout me is he? :D Because I beat him to it.
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Anyone know why 96L is not a TD yet? Is it lacking something?
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Quoting Patrap:
Ummmm,..I smell ribs that need turning,..enjoyed it ..,But Duty to the Grill calls and Im needing a fresh brewski as well.

Cheer's all...!

Happy Labor Day too.


have a good one man!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Ummmm,..I smell ribs that need turning,..enjoyed it ..,But Duty to the Grill calls and Im needing a fresh brewski as well.

Cheer's all...!

Happy Labor Day too.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
btw u r on my ignore list.


I think I can live with that, really I can
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How often do the QuikScat images update???
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
btw u r on my ignore list.


he's got a point tho, i'll take $90,000 a year, btw, i really dont care if you put me on your ignore list, just saying
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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