New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Dakster:
IF Avila answers, will you post it?

And Presslord is correct, all government employees salaries are public record, so you could just file a public records request to find out.


yeah, I definitely will. I doubt he will answer today. It is labor day
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
IF Avila answers, will you post it?

And Presslord is correct, all government employees salaries are public record, so you could just file a public records request to find out.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What year was a new director assigned to the NHC anyway?
Last year i think
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Quoting Dakster:


Of course... I think his friend was mistaking net worth for yearly salary. I can see being worth that amount.


yea...or , as has been pointed out to me, the poster may just be the latest incarnation of one of our trolls....
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
He would be in the senior executive service, Matt. Link

Since he is not the NHC director, I am sure he does not make the top grade. Off the top of my head I would guess level III.




oh alright, thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
actually...If I were he, I'd find it pretty damned funny that someone thinks I make $2.5 million per year...
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


AL 96 200909071745 1230N 2350W 25 SAB 1515 ///// DT=2.0 SCENE=CB MET=2.0 PT=1.5 FTBO=PT POS ACC=50
AL 96 200909071800 1220N 2470W 30 TAFB 2020 ///// DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINE NLINEUSED PAT


Yea, I'm actually performing it but mines seem closer to the SAB.

Model Expected Output (MET) also agrees with a cyclone near 2.0
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Quoting presslord:


usually that is the amount retirement is based on...it's not na cash asset...and it's not $2.5 million a year!!


Of course... I think his friend was mistaking net worth for yearly salary. I can see being worth that amount.
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Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2009 14:45:45 -0400
From: phelps1@purdue.edu
To: lixion.a.avila@noaa.gov
Subject: Salary


Hello,
Mr. Avila, I am currently a freshman at Purdue University, and I am studying
meteorology. I am curious about the salaries for NHC employees. At your
position, how much would one make?
thanks,
Matt Phelps
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Very nice, very nice.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

calm down little buddy dont cha have school today or sinces its 3pm dont you have homwork


Let me see, no I already turned in all of my homework for my Masters, so I have plenty of time to waste here. And in November when I graduate I will have even more time. I am not upset by the way I actually find it hillarious. Anyway nuf said. I wish I just had regular school tomorrow LOL those where the days...
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When they posted the job for NHC director the sal was 168k so i highly doubt that a forecaster makes more than the director lol
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Quoting Weather456:
I am doing Dvorak numbers on 96L and I'm getting between 1.5 and 2.0



AL 96 200909071745 1230N 2350W 25 SAB 1515 ///// DT=2.0 SCENE=CB MET=2.0 PT=1.5 FTBO=PT POS ACC=50
AL 96 200909071800 1220N 2470W 30 TAFB 2020 ///// DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINE NLINEUSED PAT
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I think 96l is already Freddy.
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Quoting Dakster:


Quite possibly...

Hey Presslord - I wonder what that e-mail looks like. Excuse me, Avila, How much do you make? At the Wunderground we've been discussing your finances....


Ill post it-

Hello,
Mr. Avila, I am currently a freshman at Purdue University, and I am studying
meteorology. I am curious about the salaries for NHC employees. At your
position, how much would one make?
thanks,
Matt Phelps
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting viman:

???
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The blow-up in the BOC doesn't get much attn from the veterns here unless or until, it persists for 36-48 hours or so. Blow-ups come and go. The real homegrown deal will fester for several days. Back to lurkin and blob-watching..
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Quoting iceman55:
Link

here good web site

Thanks for the link!
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Gulf Sat.

Gulf
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Quoting Dakster:


True. But Avila could also have "deferred comp" and that may be worth 2.5 million. I know plenty of State/County employees that if you combine defferred comp, plus an investment plan pension would have over 2 Million in the bank. Granted, it took them 30 years to get there..


usually that is the amount retirement is based on...it's not na cash asset...and it's not $2.5 million a year!!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They just updated the invest file to 1005 mb. They change the data in that file frequently when they are doing updates.


Probably about to upgrade.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

looks like hes been there for more than 30 years


Quite possibly...

Hey Presslord - I wonder what that e-mail looks like. Excuse me, Avila, How much do you make? At the Wunderground we've been discussing your finances....
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
96L will not look like Alberto or Frances it will look like 96L and if it develops it will go as north as possible just like the models are predicting. Whats up with this Historical reference people use here. As a matter of fact yhis season looks like it never really got started and it now looks like late October instead of mid September. Looks like we are in the beginning af an early fall and I would be much more concern about what winter will bring this year that this hurricane season.


I would be more concerned about winter too, but this is a tropical weather blog, and all the references to older storms is quite educational
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting Cotillion:


Interesting.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 23.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 20.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Model input differs on the pressure. (SHIPs isn't taking it to hurricane force this time, either.)


They just updated the invest file to 1005 mb. They change the data in that file frequently when they are doing updates.
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I am doing Dvorak numbers on 96L and I'm getting between 1.5 and 2.0

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EATL

Link
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96L will not look like Alberto or Frances it will look like 96L and if it develops it will go as north as possible just like the models are predicting. Whats up with this Historical reference people use here. As a matter of fact yhis season looks like it never really got started and it now looks like late October instead of mid September. Looks like we are in the beginning af an early fall and I would be much more concern about what winter will bring this year that this hurricane season.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 96 2009090718 BEST 0 124N 239W 25 1007 DB


Interesting.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 23.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 20.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Model input differs on the pressure. (SHIPs isn't taking it to hurricane force this time, either.)
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Quoting presslord:


E-mailed Avila? That's great... lol


yeah, his email is posted on the NHC site lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
18Z SHIPS for 96L was run with OFCI for track, so NHC has now done an official track on the system.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
G'afternoon, all!!!

Good afternoon to you too, WeatherStudent.
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Quoting btwntx08:

Link
FYI here's the latest sheer map from CIMSS
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Quoting tornadodude:


I just emailed him and asked.


E-mailed Avila? That's great... lol
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Quoting presslord:
those salaries are public record...for anyone who wants to go to the trouble to look it up...


True. But Avila could also have "deferred comp" and that may be worth 2.5 million. I know plenty of State/County employees that if you combine defferred comp, plus an investment plan pension would have over 2 Million in the bank. Granted, it took them 30 years to get there..
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440. viman
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Quoting presslord:
those salaries are public record...for anyone who wants to go to the trouble to look it up...


I just emailed him and asked.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still no TD?


Not yet, but they have been known to change the data frequently. It does look like EP15 is now a TS.
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96L might be like Hurricane Alberto (2000), but Alberto moved WNW/NW longer then 96L is predicted to.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.